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First Republic Bank about to go under; government takeover imminent

Posted on 4/25/23 at 3:02 pm
Posted by euphemus
Member since Mar 2014
560 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 3:02 pm
quote:

BREAKING: Investment bankers working with First Republic expect the government to take it over.

No one wants to buy it.

Stock down 90%.

Market cap only $1.5 billion.

It’s a high risk small cap now.

LINK
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11869 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 3:54 pm to
What proportion of their loan book is commercial real estate?
Posted by BigPerm30
Member since Aug 2011
31091 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 4:48 pm to
We are fricked. It’s going to be a domino effect.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4891 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 5:22 pm to
Will be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to this in regards to interest rate moves now..
Posted by Im4datigers
Northern Virginia
Member since Oct 2003
4649 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 5:24 pm to
As a banker, the Fed can suck if. Yes all these banks did some dumb shite, but what the fed is doing is crippling the good guys doing the right thing out in the markets. Credit will completely freeze in the next 6 months as banks are simply loaned out.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 6:16 pm to
quote:

We are fricked. It’s going to be a domino effect.


FRC is fricked, primarily, because 40% of their deposits basically left in a week.

There isn’t a bank around that could withstand that withdrawal pressure.

Without a bank run, banks will be fine.
Posted by biscuitsngravy
Tejas, north America
Member since Jan 2011
3780 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 7:03 pm to
odds are they'll fail it friday afternoon and have a buyer lined up when they re-open monday.
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
42036 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 8:04 pm to
How can they fail after quarterly call

Seems like going concern should have come up
Posted by ShootingsBricks4Life
Member since May 2017
2601 posts
Posted on 4/25/23 at 11:34 pm to
quote:

No one wants to buy it.


....yet
Posted by Im4datigers
Northern Virginia
Member since Oct 2003
4649 posts
Posted on 4/26/23 at 5:48 am to
How can they fail after quarterly call Seems like going concern should have come up

Because it is a going concern, today. Once the media takes this today and douses kerosene on the fire they’re done. It will be just like SVB and there will be a run on the bank in the next two days. Between the media and social media, this will turn into a shitshow today and tomorrow.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58524 posts
Posted on 4/26/23 at 6:32 am to
Which bank is gonna fail next so we can short it baw?
Posted by JLivermore
Wendover
Member since Dec 2015
1690 posts
Posted on 4/26/23 at 7:37 am to
At this point, is it a bank run or a stock run?
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
42036 posts
Posted on 4/26/23 at 12:55 pm to
quote:

this point, is it a bank run or a stock run?


A lot of smoke of FDIC having to step in but nothing I would trust

That could start a run. I think FDIC and bank aren't good at saying run isn't happening

While anyone on Twitter can report its happening
Posted by Crescent Connection
Member since Jun 2008
2321 posts
Posted on 4/26/23 at 1:51 pm to
What happens if I bought puts expiring May 12 and government seizes before then?
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 4/26/23 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

What happens if I bought puts expiring May 12 and government seizes before then?


If Robinhood is your brokerage, that could be an iffy situation.

Robinhood traders cry foul over SVB short bets, broker responds

quote:

By Gerelyn Terzo on Friday 17 March 2023

Online broker Robinhood has found itself in the middle of the Silicon Valley Bank debacle. The app was under fire from users who say their short bets on the beleaguered Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank weren't being honoured. But according to reports, Robinhood is finally doing right by traders.

Savvy traders had purchased put options on SVB and Signature Bank before the banks collapsed. These put options are bets that the stock price will fall, giving traders the opportunity to sell shares above the market price and pocket the difference. However, when the market panic set in, and the stock prices sank, users say that they were blocked from exercising their put options on the banks, preventing them from earning the profits they were entitled to.
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
42036 posts
Posted on 4/26/23 at 7:51 pm to
quote:

What happens if I bought puts expiring May 12 and government seizes before then?


Only down $2 today

The worst of this downturn is behind us lol

This is fine
Posted by KCRoyalBlue
Member since Nov 2020
1913 posts
Posted on 4/26/23 at 10:37 pm to
Trump can fix this $hit. We need a businessman to run this country.
Posted by tenderfoot tigah
Red Stick
Member since Sep 2004
11518 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 6:57 am to
How does Robinhood have any customers left?

GET OFF ROBINHOOD!
Posted by jnethe1
Pearland
Member since Dec 2012
17126 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 10:58 am to
quote:

Trump can fix this $hit. We need a businessman to run this country.


Gtfo with that logic.

What we need is a career politician who has no real world experience and has used his position of influence to enrich his friend and family such as having a crackhead son get paid for their “art” by undisclosed buyers… lol
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
42036 posts
Posted on 4/27/23 at 12:45 pm to
I just doubled down on my long position


I know it is stupid but couldn't stop myself
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