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Reuters: Global Hedge Fund Launches Down/Liquidation Up
Posted on 10/2/22 at 7:52 pm
Posted on 10/2/22 at 7:52 pm
Reuters: Hedge Fund launches down, liquidation up
When large hedge fund holdings start the liquidation process…these aren’t dumb people. If even they are not willing to risk capital…well it’s all speculative but let’s just say it is yet another marker that we are heading for some hard times IMHO.
When large hedge fund holdings start the liquidation process…these aren’t dumb people. If even they are not willing to risk capital…well it’s all speculative but let’s just say it is yet another marker that we are heading for some hard times IMHO.
4
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:06 pm to AlaskaAg
These threads are everyday now. Your guys going to seriously make me think it is bottom
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:15 pm to AlaskaAg
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:31 pm to Bard
I'm almost convinced that the Fed is going to pause tomorrow.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:58 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
I'm almost convinced that the Fed is going to pause tomorrow.
There's a strong possibility, otherwise why call the emergency meeting?
My concern is what happens after that.
If September CPI comes out and is +.1 again (or even more), what then?
October is set to be filled with bad news (Earnings, Durable Goods, GDP, Unemployment, etc). If these are all as bad as trends suggest, what then?
The more I look at the larger picture I can't help but wonder *IF* they call a pause tomorrow, it's a sham only to buy the markets some relief until they follow through with the planned .5 in November. If that were to be the case, would it really be a pause?
Along with the bigger-picture look, what does it say for both domestic and international economies if they can't survive the US moving to a 3.4 FedFund Rate?
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:06 pm to Bard
We can't handle higher rates imo. The entire economy runs on cheap money now. Election season coming up and they can blame it on European issues.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:10 pm to Bard
Bad optics to have a tanking market into election season.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:18 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
We can't handle higher rates imo. The entire economy runs on cheap money now.
And that's a biiiiiiiig problem because cheap money is how we got to nearly runaway inflation in the first place.
Perhaps they pause and lay out a roadmap for a more drawn-out series of increases? Being satisfied with 3% this year then 3.5 next year (instead of 3.8), then possibly 4 in 2024?
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:33 pm to AlaskaAg
If the Fed reverses course (which I think they will) we will be kicking this problem down the road yet again. Living with high inflation will also lead to a collapse of the economy.
Reducing government spending drastically would help. (Sorry government workers but many of you are not needed). That will never happen.
It’s going to collapse eventually. You may as well pull off the bandaid now before the bubble gets any bigger.
Reducing government spending drastically would help. (Sorry government workers but many of you are not needed). That will never happen.
It’s going to collapse eventually. You may as well pull off the bandaid now before the bubble gets any bigger.
This post was edited on 10/2/22 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:38 pm to Lone Wolf McQuade
Someone explain what it means to pause or how the Fed would reverse course?
None of it makes sense to me
None of it makes sense to me
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:41 pm to HailToTheChiz
quote:
Someone explain what it means to pause or how the Fed would reverse course?
They could stop raising interest rates or decrease them again.
They could also start up QE again like the BOE recently did.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:42 pm to HailToTheChiz
quote:
omeone explain what it means to pause or how the Fed would reverse course?
It's a last ditch effort by Democrats to gain votes before the November election. The sky high inflation and inevitable collapse is still coming.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 10:08 pm to Lone Wolf McQuade
quote:
They could stop raising interest rates or decrease them again.
Why would they do these things now? Won't it take several months to see the effects on the prior raises?
Posted on 10/3/22 at 6:29 am to Bard
quote:honesty the market might tank after realizing how fricked the system is
*IF* they call a pause tomorrow, it's a sham only to buy the markets some relief
Posted on 10/3/22 at 7:19 am to HailToTheChiz
quote:
Why would they do these things now? Won't it take several months to see the effects on the prior raises?
That's where we get into the psychology of the market, a bit. The market can be short-sighted, looking for the quick and juicy investment buck over the long-term stability of the economy. A pause (announcing there will be no more hikes for a while) or a pivot (where the cut instead of staying their course on increasing rates) would cause the market to rebound from pretty much the moment it's announced.
The market and the economy are different things but they do have inter-dependencies, the last year has been a case study in this. Even though inflation was roaring, the market was also going up because businesses were pulling in more money and unemployment remained low (my theory on that is that consumers didn't adjust their spending habits, they were still looking at purchasing in terms of units (ie: "I'm buying three cans of soup") instead of Dollars ("I'm not spending more than $n so I need to find the best deals")).
Posted on 10/3/22 at 7:59 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
We can't handle higher rates imo
Maybe we can handle higher rates but maybe we can't handle the velocity at which they are increasing.
Maybe they should have taken a slow increase approach while stating that we understand inflation won't go from record highs to deflation in 6 months with this approach but it won't break the economy. Also with the current approach we aren't giving any time for things to settle out; we just keep pushing the gas pedal on rates. In reality we haven't had higher inflation for very long compared to previous cycles in history.
The one thing is for certain is that they should have started the rate increases sooner but that isn't news to people around here.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 8:25 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
These threads are everyday now. Your guys going to seriously make me think it is bottom
50% to go
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:10 am to bod312
quote:
Maybe they should have taken a slow increase approach while stating that we understand inflation won't go from record highs to deflation in 6 months with this approach but it won't break the economy.
I don't think they had much of a choice at the time.
Considering the BoE and CS issues, it may well be that they're re-thinking the speed with which they are pursuing this and initiate a pause.
Regardless of if they pause, pivot or stay the course today, they really need to come out strongly against this insane spending Congress has continued to engage in and start putting blame squarely at their feet. All the QT in the world doesn't mean shite if Congress is just going to counter it with expanding welfare benefits, propping up the green industry with stimmy money, spending fricktons on Ukraine's war, etc.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:42 am to Lone Wolf McQuade
quote:
You may as well pull off the bandaid now before the bubble gets any bigger.
Thank god you're not running the economy
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:45 am to AlaskaAg
quote:
When large hedge fund holdings start the liquidation process…these aren’t dumb people. If even they are not willing to risk capital…well it’s all speculative but let’s just say it is yet another marker that we are heading for some hard times IMHO.
Lol when they arent printing new trillions the opportunities to steal it all dry up.
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