re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

I’m always in the worst case scenario flood level area and haven’t flooded since I’ve been here for ~9 years.

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How often are the storm surge maps correct? I feel like for storms in Louisiana they are often grossly overstated. Can Tampa really expect 10 feet?

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I can assure you category 1, never made landfall in north Florida, Matthew went over 9 feet in storm surge where my dad had a beach house in northern Flagler county.

Ivan had a 10-15 ft surge, not sure what they were predicting before it hit but it took out the I10 bridge.

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How often are the storm surge maps correct? I feel like for storms in Louisiana they are often grossly overstated. Can Tampa really expect 10 feet?

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A very layman observation from Ida: the impact of surge can be felt far away from the coastline if you are near a river or manmade canal that eventually flows into the ocean.

Big colored surge areas on some maps do not always convey this nuance.

A tool someone posted earlier is very handy in depicting the effect of surge inland on rivers and canals depending on Hurricane Category.
Interactive storm surge potential map

Even it didn't predict the flooding impacts perfectly during Ida in the Tangipahoa area.
Some places flooded far less than the surge map would indicate and some places far upstream on drainage canals flooded worse.
My guess is rivers and drainage canals filled up and water had no place to go. Not sure trying to quantify that affect is part of these surge prediction maps.


Hopefully one of the experts on the board will clarify and or correct. Just trying to share my regular citizen impression in order to give heads up to others.

Main takeaway, the margin of error on these indicators may be meant to be on your side, but even then I would factor in extra surge, not less, if you have any doubt.