Tomorrow's CPI. Lower than expected?

I think 75 is locked in. That may not be a bad thing for the market.

I would think they set up for it to be high so when it comes back “lower”, it’s better than expected for the market.

Energy has gone down pretty significantly here lately.

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I still think JP has no balls, if the market starts to collapse, he'll take his foot off the gas.

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It's a paradox. The longer unemployment stays low, the harder they will hike which will cause the crash to be worse. They are basically 1 year behind the curve CUTTING rates just like they were 1 year behind raising them. Without cuts energy investment won't happen therefore CPI remains elevated/volatile. It's kind of hilarious watching them make the problem they are trying to fix worse.

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Energy has gone down pretty significantly here lately.

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I think you may be thinking of gasoline. That's energy, but its not the entirety of the category.



For this discussion, I'm talking about electricity production (which is generally everything else).



I'm not sure where you live, but here in La we have Entergy running commercials bragging about how their employees have donated "millions" to help Entergy customers afford rising bills.

Average US electricity price, 12-month change


Natural gas has more than doubled in price since December of 2021 and it's the primary source of electricity generation in the country, by far.



While the EPA has been doing a solid job of killing coal, it's still used quite a bit. Coal has also more than doubled (nearly tripled) in price since December 2021.



Unless peace suddenly breaks out in Ukraine and Putin returns energy to Europe because his heart grew three sizes, there's absolutely no reason to expect our energy prices won't continue their upward trends through the end of the year.

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That's why I think the Fed has no idea what they're doing. They are using a backwards looking measurement where owner's equivalent rent, which takes multiple years to price in rent increases fully, is 1/3 of it.

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No idea what the rationale for the two downvotes on this could be.

OER is indeed the thing BLS uses to determine home prices in CPI.

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Lower than expected?

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Nope.
CPI is up. Inflation 8.3% vs 8.0% est.

Futures dropped like 700 points in a few minutes, lol. Glad to be sitting on lots of cash.... come to daddy!

Fed rate outlook now at 4.2% for Apr 2023. 80% chance of 75 bpts, but now w/ 20% chance of 100bpts increase this month.

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Futures dropped like 700 points in a few minutes, lol. Glad to be sitting on lots of cash.... come to daddy!

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Have plenty of cash as well but will be interested to see if this sends markets down to retest lows from June over the next few weeks. It is Sept after all.
Until i see food prices stop going up every week at the grocery store i'm going to assume Inflation is nowhere near getting under control. Lower Oil prices is a start but there are more factors than that.