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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/28/23 at 5:20 pm to Auburn1968
Posted on 9/28/23 at 5:20 pm to Auburn1968
After seeing various claims of Ukraine stepping up operations around Verbove I have still not seen much regarding this from either side which is unusual - the side on the receiving end usually quickly refutes that it has been successful.
The only substantial thing I have found has been from Tartarigami which is uses satellite imagery to note how artillery fire appears to have shifted in that direction, indicating Ukraine has moved forward.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1707058241396408743
Also it looks like Tatarigami is starting his own analysis group. While he is in AFU which means most of his efforts focus from the perspective, he has generally been fairly objective in reporting this information through the war. I will be interested to see what his new group does as it sounds like they are looking at conflicts in general rather than Ukraine specific (though this will of course still feature).
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1707419976406028356
The only substantial thing I have found has been from Tartarigami which is uses satellite imagery to note how artillery fire appears to have shifted in that direction, indicating Ukraine has moved forward.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1707058241396408743
quote:
Given recent talks in russian Telegram groups about supposed increased pressure from Ukrainian forces, I conducted a visual comparison of images taken on the 24th and 27th of September. Here, I noted distinctions and identified clear patterns.
quote:
As you can see, a number of fresh scorch marks have emerged in recent days. It appears that new visible alterations have occurred to the east and southeast of Novoprokopivka. This aligns with recent reports of Ukrainian Forces activity in the vicinity of Novoprokopivka.
quote:
Another important development is taking place in the Nove-Solodka Balka-Pshenychne triangle. Numerous recent marks in the region suggest that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have substantially intensified their pressure on more remote defenses.
quote:
Scorch marks themselves don't confirm the presence or absence of troops; instead, they indicate areas affected by shelling or hostilities. September, being the driest period in the region, makes grass susceptible to catching fire.
quote:
In summary, while occasional anomalies may arise in the imagery analysis, a clear trend shows fires shifting toward Ocheretuvate and Nove. However, this pattern only shows a progression of fires and should not be used as an indicator of territorial control or a breakthrough.
Also it looks like Tatarigami is starting his own analysis group. While he is in AFU which means most of his efforts focus from the perspective, he has generally been fairly objective in reporting this information through the war. I will be interested to see what his new group does as it sounds like they are looking at conflicts in general rather than Ukraine specific (though this will of course still feature).
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1707419976406028356
Posted on 9/28/23 at 6:47 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
While he is in AFU
I mean ... he was, but he's clearly not fighting along the front now and hasn't been since defending Vuhledar this past winter. He must now have some kind of HQ job, if he's still serving and hasn't served out his time and gone back to civilian life.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 7:27 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
After seeing various claims of Ukraine stepping up operations around Verbove I have still not seen much regarding this from either side which is unusual - the side on the receiving end usually quickly refutes that it has been successful.
Usually, when the hype train gets quiet, it's a sign that things didn't progress for Ukraine.
And, it has to be said, the current offensive (after 3 months) is looking like it's culminated with limited gains.
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