re: Signing Limit Waiver Details & Projected Attrition

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Regardless, a player who quits going to class and transfers is going to be in an academic hole from day 1 at their new school. Maybe they can regain eligibility by taking summer/intercession classes, but I don’t know why they would do that to themselves just to keep their previous school from adding another player.

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A player transferring that is not academically eligible would not get to utilize the no sit out rule; being academically eligible is one of the conditions for immediate eligibility at the new school.

the entirety of the NCAA By-Law for the waiver of the residency requirement (ie: one time transfer with immediate eligibility), please note the passage in bold:

14.5.5.2.10 One-Time Transfer Exception. The student transfers to the certifying institution from another four-year collegiate institution, and all of the following conditions are met (for postgraduate students, see Bylaw 14.6.1):
(Revised: 1/16/93 effective 8/1/93, 1/11/94, 1/10/95, 1/9/96, 1/11/97, 11/1/00 effective 8/1/01, 4/26/01, 4/28/05 effective
8/1/05, 4/27/06 effective 10/15/06, 12/15/06, 4/27/07 effective 8/1/08, 4/29/10 effective 8/1/10, 4/22/11, 4/28/21
applicable to transfer student-athletes seeking eligibility during the 2021-22 academic year. Mandatory education related to transferring will be applicable upon its availability)
(a) The student has not transferred previously from one four-year institution unless, in the previous transfer, the
student-athlete received an exception per Bylaw 14.5.5.2.6 (discontinued/nonsponsored sport exception);
(b) At the time of transfer to the certifying institution (see Bylaw 14.5.2), the student would have been academically
eligible had the student remained at the institution from which the student transferred, except that the student is
not required to have fulfilled the necessary percentage-of-degree requirements at the previous institution; and
(c) The head coach of the certifying institution and the student shall certify that no athletics staff member or other
representative of the institution’s athletics interest communicated or made contact with the student-athlete, or any
individual associated with the student (e.g., family member, scholastic or nonscholastic coach, advisor), directly or
indirectly, without first obtaining authorization through the notification of transfer process (see Bylaw 13.1.1.3).
(d) The student must provide written notification of transfer to the institution by the following dates:
(1) Fall and winter sports: May 1.
(2) Spring sports: July 1.

ETA: So, no the academically ineligible transfer would not be able to make academic progress using summer school or intersessions, they would not qualify for the waiver of residency rules and would have to sit out for a year and regain academic eligibility for the next season.