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re: My take is that Russia and China have gotten together in secret and will attack
Posted on 12/7/21 at 3:16 pm to BugAC
Posted on 12/7/21 at 3:16 pm to BugAC
quote:
Statistically speaking, we're at a 50/50 split. But "infinitely" sounds more dramatic.
I genuinely believe that it is incalculably more likely that neither Russia nor China do anything in the short term than it is that both events happen at the same time.
Neither country wants a war. Blustering is part of both nations' foreign policy and has been for some time--they are bullies, and they are masterful at manipulating a Western media that is more devoted to sowing internal discord for clicks than accurately depicting geopolitical events. Both of their economies are just as fragile as ours at the moment, and neither country is where they want to be from a military modernization standpoint (yet).
Russia in particular cannot run the risk of the situation in Ukraine ballooning on them to include NATO. Russia cannot beat NATO in a protracted engagement.
China has the distance factor to their advantage, however they are not capable of easily taking Taiwan at the moment either. They have zero ability to get an amphibious fleet across the strait without massive losses.
Any "alliance" between the two will flame out spectacularly at some point. Their interests in the Far East, Arctic, and Central Asia are totally opposed to one another.
This post was edited on 12/7/21 at 3:19 pm
3
Posted on 12/7/21 at 4:42 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
China has the distance factor to their advantage, however they are not capable of easily taking Taiwan at the moment either. They have zero ability to get an amphibious fleet across the strait without massive losses.
Again, this is a perk for China. You do not understand this country.
Posted on 12/7/21 at 5:18 pm to Indefatigable
Your take is the best one on here so far. China and Russia cannot afford to enter full on wars. They’d lose just as much as the rest of us, if not more as they are starting from a more advantageous position right now in the global power scheme and any aggressive actions could mean Japan, Australia, or Germany take their places in whatever would come after the war (UN 2.0). No, they are quite happy with their veto voting rights.
What they WILL probably do is coerce/scare tactic their way into land acquisition, but it only gets them so far. They will rot from the inside after that. Those societal structures always do. We’re also seeing that rot in the US in the far left
What they WILL probably do is coerce/scare tactic their way into land acquisition, but it only gets them so far. They will rot from the inside after that. Those societal structures always do. We’re also seeing that rot in the US in the far left
Posted on 12/7/21 at 5:34 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Blustering is part of both nations' foreign policy and has been for some time-
Good post and I mostly agree but the only thing that makes me wonder if this time really is different is how incredibly weak we are at the moment. Maybe they make the bet that we are on a rapid decline and hold off longer but we have the weakest US president ever, a military reeling from humiliation in Afghanistan, and Putin knows there will be little American domestic support for a war. I still don’t think anything happens but I’m on more alert than when they usually try this stunt
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