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The hunt for National Seeds
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:28 am
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:28 am
ACC- Wake Forest and Duke are the front runners. Both Virginia and Miami have work to do.
My prediction is the ACC gets 2 national seeds.
Big 10 - Maryland and Iowa seem to be the only schools with an outside chance and both have a ton of work to do just to get in the conversation both in terms of conference record and RPI.
My prediction is the Big 10 gets 0 national seeds.
Big 12 - West Virginia is still a long shot for a national seed however if they run the table I could see them slide into the 8 seed but will most likely settle in as a regional host.
My prediction is the Big 12 gets 0 national seeds.
Pac 12 - Stanford appears the be the clear front runner based on conference record and RPI. Arizona St. and Orgeon are on the outside looking in with work to do.
My prediction is the Pac 12 gets 1 national seed
SEC - LSU, Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, and Arkansas all have clear cut paths to acquire national seeds. Since 2018 when the selection committee began seeding 1-16 there has never been more than 4 SEC teams and I don't see that changing. Any team in contention will need to get at least 18 wins minimum.
My prediction is the SEC gets 4 national seeds
Outliers-Teams such as Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt), Southern Miss (Sun Belt), Campbell (Big South), Dallas Baptist (C-USA) if there was ever a year for a team to make a run and jump into the 7 or 8 seed I think this is the year. It's going to take this team going near perfect the rest of the way.
My prediction is an outlier team will get 1 national seed
Any thoughts?
My prediction is the ACC gets 2 national seeds.
Big 10 - Maryland and Iowa seem to be the only schools with an outside chance and both have a ton of work to do just to get in the conversation both in terms of conference record and RPI.
My prediction is the Big 10 gets 0 national seeds.
Big 12 - West Virginia is still a long shot for a national seed however if they run the table I could see them slide into the 8 seed but will most likely settle in as a regional host.
My prediction is the Big 12 gets 0 national seeds.
Pac 12 - Stanford appears the be the clear front runner based on conference record and RPI. Arizona St. and Orgeon are on the outside looking in with work to do.
My prediction is the Pac 12 gets 1 national seed
SEC - LSU, Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, and Arkansas all have clear cut paths to acquire national seeds. Since 2018 when the selection committee began seeding 1-16 there has never been more than 4 SEC teams and I don't see that changing. Any team in contention will need to get at least 18 wins minimum.
My prediction is the SEC gets 4 national seeds
Outliers-Teams such as Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt), Southern Miss (Sun Belt), Campbell (Big South), Dallas Baptist (C-USA) if there was ever a year for a team to make a run and jump into the 7 or 8 seed I think this is the year. It's going to take this team going near perfect the rest of the way.
My prediction is an outlier team will get 1 national seed
Any thoughts?
8
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:32 am to Adam4848
Agreed. I think Coastal Carolina gets 1, and one of Florida/Ark won't get one.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:33 am to Adam4848
When you say national seeds, are you talking top 8, or all 16?
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:34 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Looks to me he is talking the top 8. I think this list is as good a guess as any.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:35 am to YeauxTigers
quote:
Looks to me he is talking the top 8.
I believe so too. Just wanted to clarify. I agree with just about all of it for top 8, except for maybe his 2 in the ACC. The SEC probably deserves to have 5 of the top 8, but I doubt they will.
This post was edited on 5/1/23 at 9:38 am
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:38 am to Adam4848
I think Coastal is your 8th.
The committee seems to blend RPI and rankings. Teams that appear in the Top 10 of both are probably front-runners at this point (LSU, Wake, SC, Arky, Vandy, Coastal, Duke, Florida) But I agree the SEC will only get 4:
RPI
1) Wake Forest
2) South Carolina
3) Louisiana State
4) Kentucky
5) Arkansas
6) Vanderbilt
7) Coastal Carolina
8) Duke
9) Florida
10) Indiana State
D1 Baseball Poll
1) LSU
2) Wake Forest
3) South Carolina
4) Florida
5) Vanderbilt
6) Arkansas
7) Stanford
8) Coastal Carolina
9) Connecticut
10) Duke
The committee seems to blend RPI and rankings. Teams that appear in the Top 10 of both are probably front-runners at this point (LSU, Wake, SC, Arky, Vandy, Coastal, Duke, Florida) But I agree the SEC will only get 4:
RPI
1) Wake Forest
2) South Carolina
3) Louisiana State
4) Kentucky
5) Arkansas
6) Vanderbilt
7) Coastal Carolina
8) Duke
9) Florida
10) Indiana State
D1 Baseball Poll
1) LSU
2) Wake Forest
3) South Carolina
4) Florida
5) Vanderbilt
6) Arkansas
7) Stanford
8) Coastal Carolina
9) Connecticut
10) Duke
This post was edited on 5/1/23 at 9:56 am
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:11 am to Adam4848
That's probably how it will shake out. Clemson has really shot up in the RPI. If they continue on a tear the next couple weeks I could see them sneaking in as one.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:11 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Correct, it's just top 8.
I think the SEC deserves 5 but don't think the committee will allow that for their typical political reasons.
quote:
I agree with just about all of it for top 8, except for maybe his 2 in the ACC. The SEC probably deserves to have 5 of the top 8, but I doubt they will.
I think the SEC deserves 5 but don't think the committee will allow that for their typical political reasons.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:22 am to RockChalkTiger
Just for fun/discussion, I’ll argue that the SEC gets 5.
LSU and Vanderbilts case is very strong, I’m putting them in as of now.
Then you have Florida, Arkansas, and South Carolina all sitting at 14 SEC wins with top 10 RPIs. If all 3 go 5-4 to close out the SEC with their difficult remaining schedules, I don’t think a 19 win SEC team doesn’t get a National seed.
Only kicker would be going winless in the SEC tournament or Florida dropping a midweek game or two to drag down their RPI out of the top 10. I guess it’s possible midweek games might matter maybe a little bit
LSU and Vanderbilts case is very strong, I’m putting them in as of now.
Then you have Florida, Arkansas, and South Carolina all sitting at 14 SEC wins with top 10 RPIs. If all 3 go 5-4 to close out the SEC with their difficult remaining schedules, I don’t think a 19 win SEC team doesn’t get a National seed.
Only kicker would be going winless in the SEC tournament or Florida dropping a midweek game or two to drag down their RPI out of the top 10. I guess it’s possible midweek games might matter maybe a little bit
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:37 am to Tifway419
#1 They’ll set it up so the SEC teams meet up in the Supers.
#2 Then the SEC teams will all be on the same side in the CWS.
#2 Then the SEC teams will all be on the same side in the CWS.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:40 am to Adam4848
quote:
My prediction is an outlier team will get 1 national seed
Coastal and Dallas Baptist are both going to get natty seeds.
ETA: Just realized you were only doing top 8.
This post was edited on 5/1/23 at 10:41 am
Posted on 5/1/23 at 11:36 am to TepperDaGuru
quote:
#1 They’ll set it up so the SEC teams meet up in the Supers.
Tennessee has caught fire recently, so if they keep it up they’ll host a regional. Other than that, there can only be one other pairing if they only give the SEC 4 National seeds. It’ll likely be the 8/9 or 7/10 seeds.
quote:
#2 Then the SEC teams will all be on the same side in the CWS.
I really don’t care about this. Whoever makes it to Omaha deserves to be there and anything can happen.
If #1 happens (which it won’t), then #2 can’t happen. I guess it’s technically possible if they rank the SEC teams 1, (4 or 5), 8, 9, (12 or 13), and 16. That would be some shite
Posted on 5/1/23 at 12:20 pm to Adam4848
quote:
ACC- Wake Forest and Duke are the front runners.
quote:
Duke plays most of its home games at Durham Bulls Athletic Park, a Triple-A venue where the Devils have their own permanent locker room. That would be a great place to host, but looking at the Bulls schedule, it looks like they are home for regionals weekend, so that could be a real issue. I will have to reach out to Duke to see what their plan is, because it sure looks right now like that team is quite likely to host.
Big oof if Duke hosts.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 12:23 pm to 3rdPart Tiger
Duke going to be playing at the 2-seed's park? Man, is it 25 years ago already?
Posted on 5/1/23 at 12:28 pm to therick711
I’m sure UNC or State would be willing to help them out. For a fee!
Or they could go play it somewhere like Charlotte.
Or they could go play it somewhere like Charlotte.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 12:31 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
I’m sure UNC or State would be willing to help them out. For a fee!
They'd be better off going to the 2-seed's park. It would be pretty great to see UNC fans come out to lustfully boo Duke as a host in UNC's park. I hope it happens.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 11:03 am to Tifway419
quote:
Tennessee has caught fire recently, so if they keep it up they’ll host a regional. Other than that, there can only be one other pairing if they only give the SEC 4 National seeds. It’ll likely be the 8/9 or 7/10 seeds.
There are the non-hosting SEC teams that will be matched with the other SEC teams. 2 yrs ago we had to go to Tennessee and last year if we won, it would have been Ole Miss.
quote:I believe that the NCAA wants some kind of control of who plays who. And it’s because of SEC fatigue. The Football playoffs happened because of the LSU vs Bama BCS. I also believe they changed the CWS format in 99 due to the LSU vs Bama 97 CWS final. I know they can’t control the outcomes and with so many SEC making the regionals, they’re bound to meet up. But make no mistake about it, I believe being in the SEC plays a big part in where you’re seeded on selection Monday.
I really don’t care about this. Whoever makes it to Omaha deserves to be there and anything can happen. If #1 happens (which it won’t), then #2 can’t happen. I guess it’s technically possible if they rank the SEC teams 1, (4 or 5), 8, 9, (12 or 13), and 16. That would be some shite
Posted on 5/2/23 at 11:11 am to Adam4848
I’m not sold on Duke getting one right now. I think the SEC gets 5 before the ACC gets 2.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 12:07 pm to ell_13
quote:
I’m not sold on Duke getting one right now. I think the SEC gets 5 before the ACC gets 2.
That's where I'm at too. A lot can change between now and then though. As it sits today the argument is much stronger for 5 SEC teams, but I agree with Adam that they won't go that route if they can avoid it.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 12:15 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
9) Connecticut
In line to host, but not a national seed, IMO. But it's because they're getting boned on the RPI by the weakness of their geographic region.
There are 3 legit teams in the northeast and every regional projection has all 3 (UCONN, BC, Northeastern) in Storrs for the regional. It sucks because Northeastern is worthy of a 2 seed but the committee with screw them and make them a 3 for geography reasons. And all three of those teams have already played each other.
They'll probably throw Central Connecticut in there as a strong 4 seed and eliminate all but one NE team after the first weekend. #growthegame
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