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Started By
Message
Is LSU -3 Free Money?
Posted on 11/7/22 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 3:57 pm
I get that it is a trap game.
I get that Arkansas has a history as a spoiler.
But dayum. That seems really low.
I get that Arkansas has a history as a spoiler.
But dayum. That seems really low.
14
Posted on 11/7/22 at 3:58 pm to JudgeHolden
yeh Vegas sucks at this kind of thing 
Posted on 11/7/22 at 3:59 pm to JudgeHolden
Yes
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:00 pm to JudgeHolden
A lot of people thought Tenn +8.5 was free money
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:00 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
Is LSU -3 Free Money?
Pretty much every time you see a line from Vegas that appears to be "free money"..... it's not.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:00 pm to JudgeHolden
There is nothing that I would say is free money but it's usually a smart play to bet values. Right now LSU is playing well above their point spread value and this spread is going to continue to climb.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:00 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
yeh Vegas sucks at this kind of thing
People that parrot this think they are so smart. Vegas just had Bama -13.5 against LSU. How’d that go?
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:01 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
yeh Vegas sucks at this kind of thing
Vegas reacts to bettors beliefs. Vegas does not give a shite who wins. This means that Vegas believes that half the people will take each side of the bet.
Why are half the people taking Arkansas plus 3? That's what I want to know.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:02 pm to JudgeHolden
Going to be cold af
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:02 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
People that parrot this think they are so smart. Vegas just had Bama -13.5 against LSU. How’d that go?
Did i say they get them all right? Sports betting is a booming business for the oddsmakers...agree or disagree?
i don't think 3 pt fav is far off...what should it be?
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:03 pm to JudgeHolden
Yes. They are taking into account history that doesn't include BK as LSU's HC.
LSU may start slow but that remains to be seen. If LSU plays their "A" game and Arkansas plays theirs, we win by multiple TD's.
I honestly think BK still feels as if he has A LOT to prove. Because of that, I think this coaching staff will have this team focused for every remaining game.
LSU may start slow but that remains to be seen. If LSU plays their "A" game and Arkansas plays theirs, we win by multiple TD's.
I honestly think BK still feels as if he has A LOT to prove. Because of that, I think this coaching staff will have this team focused for every remaining game.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:03 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
This means that Vegas believes that half the people will take each side of the bet.
This is the most casual “Vegas” take. For the majority of last week Tennessee was +8.5 against Georgia. Over 85% of the bets were on Tennessee and then the line moved to Tennessee +9.5 (reverse line movement, the line moved in the opposite direction of the money and bets). Vegas sets lines to a point where they think they will be profitable, not to where they get 50/50 bets on both sides.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:05 pm to burreauxsballz
quote:
This is the most casual “Vegas” take. For the majority of last week Tennessee was +8.5 against Georgia. Over 85% of the bets were on Tennessee and then the line moved to Tennessee +9.5 (reverse line movement, the line moved in the opposite direction of the money and bets). Vegas sets lines to a point where they think they will be profitable, not to where they get 50/50 bets on both sides.
I get that. But the main profit is in having even money on both sides because they get the juice risk free.
I've heard that Vegas bets "its own money" as part of the line. I'm not sure I believe that.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:05 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
Why are half the people taking Arkansas plus 3?
They're not. Which is why it's already went from 2 to 3 (in some places). The early tickets and money are coming in on LSU which is to be expected after the emotional high from last Saturday but from what I am reading over in Arky lan there is not much confidence KJ Jefferson is going to play
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:05 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
i don't think 3 pt fav is far off...what should it be?
I would have it closer to 7.
But just give me 1 point wins the rest of the way
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:06 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
People that parrot this think they are so smart. Vegas just had Bama -13.5 against LSU. How’d that go?
Well, if it's free then bet your house on it.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:06 pm to JudgeHolden
If you think so, then put your money down. I doubt the line moves the other way, so if you're going to bet LSU, then might as well do it now.
Obligatory, "No such thing as free money."
Obligatory, "No such thing as free money."
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:06 pm to BigEdLSU
quote:
Going to be cold af
And we have a SoCal quarterback who played in Arizona.
I am sure they are going to be working him out with balls straight out of the freezer this week. Don't see that as driving the line this low.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:07 pm to Paddyshack
quote:
Well, if it's free then bet your house on it.
Just one? That's not commitment.
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