re: 2021-2022 Ski Thread

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We are headed to Taos on Christmas Day. Never been to Taos.

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They going to have enough snow down there?

So hints are kind of showing up for some snow out here mid month, but man I feel like I'm searching for positives.

This is going to get nerdy, deal with it.



The Madden-Julian oscillation ends up driving a lot of weather around the world, and here you can see what phase links up to precip in the west along with how connected to phase the precip record is.

The amplitude of the oscillation also matters (makes the impacts more notable the stronger it is).

It's been super weak amplitude and in decent phases for the last few weeks, leaving nothing to break the pattern that started mid-November.



Going into the start and middle of the month, we're going to move into phase 6/7 and pick up a little more of a kick too. Hopefully that will start to translate to the mid-latitudes and get that jet stream wavier to start pushing all the cold building over Alaska and NW Canada to push into the american rockies.



What looks to start the process is a tropical cyclone out in the WPac, gets recurved and donates some energy to the jet stream. Image below shows it, and over in America what the storm track is going to look like for the next week to week and a half.



Looks like maybe something early next week. Doesn't look like anything special, but any snow is helpful and this should deliver for all the resorts (except for maybe our NM resorts).



This is the way out in time, so we're going to take this with a grain of salt, but seeing troughing in the west/ridging in the east is what we're looking for to get some power down. Need some sustained cold and slow moving storms.

For the next 7-10 days though, warmer than normal and drier than normal should dominate the west and make opening terrain very slow going.

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Did you use the ski school at Brighton?

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I did but we opted for a private lesson rather than a group lesson and I would definitely suggest that. We had an instructor names Dane and I can definitely recommend him for that 11/12 age group.

I think the half day school in a group setting was $`150 per person but the private lesson was 1/2 the time (since you got more engagement) and ended up cheaper ($300 for one person and $50 for every extra person = $400 total)

Before our lesson neither my daughter nor I had ever even put on ski boots before (outside of picking up our rental equip) and two days after our lesson we both felt comfortable to handling one of their greens (Mary Back) on the Majestic lift

I am headed to Park City 3 weeks from today. frick. Was also planning to do 2 days at Snowbasin and looking at their webcams... no white at all

Alta has snow, more than normal bc of their microclimate. It might be worth checking them out if we dont get a blockbuster into Utah before you go.

Park City is supposed to get 24 inches next week per OpenSnow, you should be fine.

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Park City is supposed to get 24 inches next week per OpenSnow, you should be fine.

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Park City is supposed to get 24 inches next week per OpenSnow, you should be fine.

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On that shortwave early next week?

That seems awfully aggressive.

Maybe its the big following trough that does it.

ETA: NVM, i see the potential looking at the overnight GFS. What a quick change of fortune. Would bring a stout surface low across the Rockies. That could blockbuster the resorts.

Then there will be a second storm to follow soon after.



Will be better than 10:1, probably 13-14:1.

Hoping we have snow on the ground in Mid January in Heavenly.

Angel Fire just announced they are delaying opening until Dec 17th (for now) due to lack of snow and temperature inversions that are preventing snowmaking.

OpenSnow says 60 inches for Baker this week and next. 40 inches for Timberline. I’m extremely jealous.

Looks like Tahoe is the only area not getting in on the party. Only 3 inches coming up for Palisades.

11 inches for Copper... I’m ready!