re: 2021-2022 Ski Thread

Agreed on leg blasters. That’s what I did prior to ski season and it seems to be working well so far.

Epic Pass - Priority days vs core season

I have a trip planned for late January. I’ll be going on another trip later at a yet to be decided resort and date. Does it make more sense to do priority or core?

A quick look at the high-res modeling tonight has me a bit more optimistic for Colorado on the early system, but that's just bringing it more in line with Utah #s. A few spots in Colorado may push 6", with Steamboat with the highest potential to overperform with the Aspen mountains second.

Looks good for all the northern interests to get a couple of inches down, and more on the ski areas.

This Thursday/Friday storm still looks potent on the models and this is generally when it would start falling off if there wasn't something to it.

Using the GFS, since it's the most available and pretty representative of the model solutions. Plenty of moisture gets worked in off the Pacific:



Base of the trough swings over California, into the Great Basin, and across into Colorado. Cyclonic vort = vertical motion.



Jet stream leaving us in that nice right entrance region, which is a stupid place in December but I ain't complaining about additional synoptic help to get the air moving upward.



*yes Colorado centered at this point but it's going to hold true for Utah too*

And with these powers combined...



Still timing details and the usual bullshite details to figure out but damn it if this doesn't look to be coming at just the right time.

quote:

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Open Snow is a lot more optimistic on the 5 day totals now vs this morning.

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I wonder why. Could just be the storm getting in that range I guess. Im going to deep dive the ensembles this evening, just to get an idea of the spread.

Last two GFS runs might shed some light. Its cooking up a stronger and farther north surface low. Pushing 990-989 as lee cyclogenesis does its magic. That certainly implies heavier snowfall rates and a stronger front to boot. The Euro has been hitting on that kind of low and positioning for two days now.

Optimism increasing based on that.

Getting a little worried for my extended family’s first ski trip to Copper over Christmas. Not looking like we’ll have much sizable change in terrain opening. Any thoughts Duke?

I think we get another decent storm before Christmas with the shift to ridging in the east. Quiet next week for the most part, but at least should catch some energy being in the transition zone between Pac trough and eastern ridge.

Honestly Copper didnt look too bad (especially after seeing Vail and BC) Friday when I was coming by. Im sure icy and wind scoured as all frick but enough base that this weeks storms + days of snowmaking potential should really help. If not open a ton of terrain, at least make it a lot more reasonable we get some open with the next storm.

ETA: Looks like Open Snow generally agrees too, which gives me some confidence in the hypothesis.

Snow just starting in Twin Lakes, but I know its been going for a couple of hours to my north. Traction law up on Vail Pass.

28, with a nice 10-15 mph W to NW wind.

I was in a tshirt yesterday through midday. Wind blew through right about 2:45p kicking up crazy amounts of dust. Next thing I know it was in the 20s by 5:30p.

Eta: Just checked Wunderground which is now showing 2” in town on Friday.

We're headed to Park City December 16-19th. Staying at Marriott MountainSide

I hope y'all are enjoying the weather posts, because here comes another one. This will be focused on CO mountains, but this system should treat the Utah Mnts and Tahoe well. The good news is, after I posted about how there was no snow to come...the pattern does a flip and it's starting to look better across the west at least through Christmas.

The surface and upper level dynamics at play are going to be helpful and could yield some over-performance to forecast.

Looking at 700 mb, since that's about or just above the surface across the mountains. There's going to be a front crashing down from the NW. That gives a nice surface focus to produce high snowfall rates as it comes through.





Then at the jet stream level, CO gets under the right entrance of the jet which supports rising air.



Additionally in the most favorable position of the trough for vertical motion, just on the right of the base of it where the best DCVA (makes air move upward) is.



I'm not saying everyone is going to get feet, just that some things lining up decently. Looking forward to seeing how the high res models resolve things.



NAM gets into range tonight. Don't take those numbers literally but you gotta love the signal.