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Importance of possession in soccer vs. other sports
Posted on 2/19/19 at 9:40 am
Posted on 2/19/19 at 9:40 am
Why is possession viewed as so much more important in soccer as other sports?
For example, a football game occurs where the team with a strong passing attack, scores early and often on almost every possession. The other team, runs the ball more and possesses it longer but doesn’t score. The passing team wins by a lot but the stats indicate that the running team possessed the ball more.
You would never hear from a coach/player/fan/commentator that the running team looked good today despite the big loss because they possessed the ball more.
Why do soccer people focus their talks about possessing the ball despite losing to a team that had it less but did more when they did have it?
For example, a football game occurs where the team with a strong passing attack, scores early and often on almost every possession. The other team, runs the ball more and possesses it longer but doesn’t score. The passing team wins by a lot but the stats indicate that the running team possessed the ball more.
You would never hear from a coach/player/fan/commentator that the running team looked good today despite the big loss because they possessed the ball more.
Why do soccer people focus their talks about possessing the ball despite losing to a team that had it less but did more when they did have it?
8
Posted on 2/19/19 at 9:45 am to GeismarGeauxer
I don't think they really do as much these days. If you have a lot of possession and are creating chances, people will praise you and say you were unlucky.
But you're not going to find anybody who praises Chelsea for having 67% possession against United yesterday. Possession is normally considered in combination with chances created, xG, etc now.
But you're not going to find anybody who praises Chelsea for having 67% possession against United yesterday. Possession is normally considered in combination with chances created, xG, etc now.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 9:46 am to GeismarGeauxer
It's one of the most easily tracked stats?
But I see time of possession thrown around as an important stat a ton in college football.
But I see time of possession thrown around as an important stat a ton in college football.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 9:47 am to GeismarGeauxer
quote:
For example, a football gam
I get what you're trying to say, but soccer differs from football and basketball in that you can keep possession for an infinite amount of time and not be forced to turn the ball over to your opponent through the laws of the game (4th down and a shot clock, respectively).
Soccer is just a weird ol' game where being able to keep possession (usually) means you are just technically better than your opponent.
And if you have the ball longer and are better than the other team, chances are that you will win. But the key is having possession with purpose of going forward.
Don't try to overthink it.
This post was edited on 2/19/19 at 9:48 am
Posted on 2/19/19 at 9:49 am to pvilleguru
quote:
It's one of the most easily tracked stats
Also, time of possession in soccer isn't calculated by how long you possess the ball.
It's just your total number of passes divided by the total number of passes by both teams.
It's kind of misleading.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 9:53 am to GeismarGeauxer
Beats me. I value shots on goal the most, myself. It’s rare a team wins when they’re outshot by a significant margin, but we see teams win all the time despite 40% possession.
Of course possession is important, and it’s easier to score and win when your team controls the ball most of the time. But we see all the time in the Premier League and in other leagues where a team has 60+% of the ball and struggles to do anything threatening with it. If teams can’t get the job done in the final third, that possession is useless beyond just keeping the ball from the opposition.
It’s much better to be a good counterattacking team that averages around 40% possession but scores efficiently than a possession team that struggles to finish.
Of course possession is important, and it’s easier to score and win when your team controls the ball most of the time. But we see all the time in the Premier League and in other leagues where a team has 60+% of the ball and struggles to do anything threatening with it. If teams can’t get the job done in the final third, that possession is useless beyond just keeping the ball from the opposition.
It’s much better to be a good counterattacking team that averages around 40% possession but scores efficiently than a possession team that struggles to finish.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 10:12 am to GeismarGeauxer
quote:
For example, a football game occurs where the team with a strong passing attack, scores early and often on almost every possession. The other team, runs the ball more and possesses it longer but doesn’t score. The passing team wins by a lot but the stats indicate that the running team possessed the ball more.
This is a pretty bad example. How many football teams choose to run the ball and dominate the clock, but suck at it?
Very few.
A run-oriented offense that dominates possession in football is the most effective way to win a game and almost every time two evenly matched teams play with one running a high tempo spread offense and the other focusing on running clock, the spread team loses.
A few examples -
LSU vs Oregon
LSU vs WVU
Baylor vs Michigan State
In fact, Clemson, the year Watson was at the helm and won the ship is the only example of a high tempo, spread offense winning a god damn thing worth mentioning.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 11:41 am to jackwoods4
Ask my Cottagers.
Last season in the second division, Fulham DOMINATED time of possession, but even then did not have as many goals as they should have given how long they held onto the ball.
This year, same thing, only worse.
Last season in the second division, Fulham DOMINATED time of possession, but even then did not have as many goals as they should have given how long they held onto the ball.
This year, same thing, only worse.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 2:31 pm to RedPop4
Possession is more positively correlated to success than negatively, but the significance is not always strong. Analysis of possession stats requires you to consider the tactics of the teams. Some good ones (not the outgunned parking the bus types) are built around clinical countering and consistently lose possession.
You ultimately can't look at the possession numbers on their own and get a feel for how the match actually went.
You ultimately can't look at the possession numbers on their own and get a feel for how the match actually went.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 5:36 pm to GeismarGeauxer
It’s entirely possible to possess the ball and be completely ineffectual, but overall, it’s an absolute pain in the arse to chase the ball for 90 minutes when the opposing team is doing anything other than passing amongst their center backs. Pretty much every elite team that cedes possession to other elite teams is going to see a lot of the ball versus lower quality opposition, so they’re not doing it every weekend. I’m sure people would assess football teams differently if they fielded a team of two way players.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 9:03 pm to joey barton
To give another example of why possession isn’t useful by itself, Toronto FC lost 4-0 to some team from Panama tonight despite having 70% possession. They didn’t have a single shot on target the whole game.
Can’t think of too many times I’ve seen a team have that much possession and not get a single shot on goal. That’s impressive offensive futility.
Can’t think of too many times I’ve seen a team have that much possession and not get a single shot on goal. That’s impressive offensive futility.
Posted on 2/19/19 at 10:54 pm to GeismarGeauxer
Possession is one of those stats that can give you an idea of how a game was played even if you didn’t watch it. It’s an indicator.
Goals
Possession
Shots
Shots on target
Passing percentage
Fouls
Cards
Are all other indicators. While possession can’t be looked at to the exclusion of the others, aside from goals, it’s arguably the most important. While you can foul without the ball, possession is required in order to record stats in any of those other categories. Yes you can win without more possession, but unless you have an ineptness for finishing in front of goal the team with more possession has a statistically higher chance of recording those other stats and winning the game. You can’t score if you don’t have the ball.
In truth, regardless of possession stats, each team is going to create any number of chances in the course of a game. It’s what a team does or doesn’t do with those chances that is most often the difference in games. “Taking chances” they call it. It refers to the ability of a team to score after a promising attacking movement. If you are looking to single out a particular stat to help make sense of things I’d recommend that one. As discussed, possession can be a bit of a red herring.
Goals
Possession
Shots
Shots on target
Passing percentage
Fouls
Cards
Are all other indicators. While possession can’t be looked at to the exclusion of the others, aside from goals, it’s arguably the most important. While you can foul without the ball, possession is required in order to record stats in any of those other categories. Yes you can win without more possession, but unless you have an ineptness for finishing in front of goal the team with more possession has a statistically higher chance of recording those other stats and winning the game. You can’t score if you don’t have the ball.
In truth, regardless of possession stats, each team is going to create any number of chances in the course of a game. It’s what a team does or doesn’t do with those chances that is most often the difference in games. “Taking chances” they call it. It refers to the ability of a team to score after a promising attacking movement. If you are looking to single out a particular stat to help make sense of things I’d recommend that one. As discussed, possession can be a bit of a red herring.
Posted on 3/6/19 at 7:47 pm to GeismarGeauxer
quote:
Why is possession viewed as so much more important in soccer as other sports?
It’s not. See today’s CL semi
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