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Message
re: Zelensky: Russia must return all territory gained since 2014, calls it a redline
Posted on 3/20/25 at 4:52 pm to Great Plains Drifter
Posted on 3/20/25 at 4:52 pm to Great Plains Drifter
quote:
They’d convinced themselves sometime back that Vlad can be bled dry, ultimately overthrown and their version of “Liberal Democracy” will ultimately march in to Russia.
Russia stands in the way of the New World Order.
0
Posted on 3/20/25 at 4:52 pm to Harry Boutte
quote:
He very well can't just say, "Okay, sure, we'll just give Putin whatever he wants." Obviously, there's going to be negotiations. Zelensky is starting from the position that he is in the right. Therefore, he shouldn't have to give up anything. This is a STARTING position. Putin's position is, "Nyet." Again, a starting position. Trump's position is, "Let's see if we can make a deal."
Crimea. The peninsula has never been historically a part of Ukriane. It was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 by Nikita Khrushchev. Crimea has a warm water port that has strategic significance to the Russian navy. It would not surprise me to see this as one of the first concessions Zelensky makes. The problem is with the water supply for Crimea, the North Crimean Canal bring water from the Dnieper River to the peninsula.
The North Crimean Canal runs through the Kherson Oblast, and was cut off by Zelensky following the annexation of Crimea by Putin in March, 2014. Should Crimea go to Putin, he will insist on a dependable water supply, preferably one he controls. Additionally, Putin wants secure ingress/egress to the peninsula. This now involves the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which is adjacent to the Donetsk Oblast, which has a significant ethnic Russian population.
Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts represent an industrial sector of Ukraine that had been depopulated of Cossacks, and repopulated with Russians during the collectivization/Holodomor under Stalin, and thus retain a significant Russian population today.
So, some or all of the following oblasts seem to be on the block:
Crimea
Kherson
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Luhansk
I would assume it's Zelenky's goal not to give up all of each oblast, but only those areas that 1.) Allow Russia to maintain the port in Sevastopol. 2.) allow for a dependable water supply for Crimea. 3.) Allow for unencumbered access for Russia to Crimea. 4.) Protect the ethnic Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Putin's negotiating points are for the above, plus Zelensky to step down, Ukraine to join the EEAU, and to prohibit NATO troops in Ukraine.
While I suspect Putin will get most of what he wants, perhaps he will make the concession of giving up some occupied territory insofar as it doesn't jeopardize water and access to Crimea, and the safety of ethnic Russians.
I'm pretty sure Crimea, Crimean water and access, safety of ethic Russians, Zelensky stepping down and Ukrainian membership in the EEAU are all non-negotiable for Putin. The only thing he's probably willing to discuss are exactly where the lines will be drawn. And at that point Zelensky will just be negotiating for acreage.
But after losing so many soldiers fighting for the survival of their nation, he can't just roll over now. That's not going to happen, and there's no way anyone could reasonably think it will.
He's got to try to come away with something.
I agree with the rundown, and I appreciate the history lesson, but I think the big issue is time is running out.
Western boots on the ground was never going to be on the table, so the next play was financial and material support to Ukraine along with economic sanctions on Russia. That approach had merit: give Ukraine the means to fight, inflict more casualties on Russia than yourself while straining and depleting their economy and populace. The hope is that the cost become too high and too unpopular, and they come to favorable terms.
Well, it's knocking on the door of 3 years, and Putin seems to give zero fricks about how many people he loses and how much money he has to spend. Something has to give, and so far it isn't him.
It's either play out the same game of the last 3 years or settle this thing out pronto.
Posted on 3/20/25 at 4:56 pm to LuckyTiger
Z is doing the art of the deal dictated by Trump. Ask for the moon when you are not in the power position and see what shakes loose. The Ukraine has to state a position to negotiate back from, so these initial red lines are pretty much worthless.
Now Trump can “negotiate” a different arrangement and go back and forth.
My guess is this leads to Russia keeping Crimea but Ukraine getting some of the lost territory back and now all sides (including Putin) can look like they actually negotiated vs terms were dictated by Trump… In essence all get to save face to some degree while still coming to an arrangement.
Now Trump can “negotiate” a different arrangement and go back and forth.
My guess is this leads to Russia keeping Crimea but Ukraine getting some of the lost territory back and now all sides (including Putin) can look like they actually negotiated vs terms were dictated by Trump… In essence all get to save face to some degree while still coming to an arrangement.
Posted on 3/20/25 at 5:02 pm to DakIsNoLB
You also cant believe the press and the "russia is just a meat grinder for the troops" that nonsense went out the door eighty years ago. They are droning and glide bombing the snot out of Ukranian front lines. This has made cargo pants very unpopular.
Second, we are not just sending weapons, we are funding their civil servants AND paying the pension for their retirees. When this goes away cargo pants better not be in Ukraine (or at least what exists of it).
There is a reason he wont hold an election, and forget that nonsense about "its in their constitution", he wrote the friggin thing so he could be a dictator when he started this war by bombing his own civilians in Donbas AND Crimea.
Second, we are not just sending weapons, we are funding their civil servants AND paying the pension for their retirees. When this goes away cargo pants better not be in Ukraine (or at least what exists of it).
There is a reason he wont hold an election, and forget that nonsense about "its in their constitution", he wrote the friggin thing so he could be a dictator when he started this war by bombing his own civilians in Donbas AND Crimea.
Posted on 3/20/25 at 6:54 pm to Proximo
CIA bad therefore I must become a pinko 
Posted on 3/20/25 at 6:56 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
Speaking of peace while advocating a war to extinguish “his” country.
Posted on 3/20/25 at 6:57 pm to Proximo
quote:
Time for Russia to turn up the heat and take the entire country then
It's time for Russia to get put back in their place.
Posted on 3/20/25 at 7:01 pm to Harry Boutte
It served France’s interest to decouple the colonies from the UK.
How does it serve America’s interest to waste our materiel and money, both scarce, for a non ally? Russia is not an enemy - it is an adversary. There is no reason we cannot be cordial with them, it’s not remotely comparable to France/UK who were in a series of hot wars against each other for half a millennia
How does it serve America’s interest to waste our materiel and money, both scarce, for a non ally? Russia is not an enemy - it is an adversary. There is no reason we cannot be cordial with them, it’s not remotely comparable to France/UK who were in a series of hot wars against each other for half a millennia
Posted on 3/20/25 at 7:22 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
I guess we'll all witness the end of The Ukraine.
Posted on 3/20/25 at 7:23 pm to Harry Boutte
quote:
Much like we needed the French in our struggle against King George III's superpower.
It's always amazing when people who don't know history try to use it.
This post was edited on 3/20/25 at 7:24 pm
Posted on 3/20/25 at 8:10 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
Make The Ukraine Russian Again.
Posted on 3/20/25 at 8:21 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
You also cant believe the press and the "russia is just a meat grinder for the troops" that nonsense went out the door eighty years ago. They are droning and glide bombing the snot out of Ukranian front lines.
Initially, they DID use outmoded WWII era tactics: a storm of artillery, a wave of armor, then meat grinder tactics for infantry. Air support was similarly working in a WWII manner, i.e. no real coordination of close air support. You have to remember, they’ve glorified that model of warfare in their schools and parades since 1945. Further, the Ukraine was practically told what to do and where to hit by US advisors, as well as getting front line weapons and intel from us. So Russia adapted. They've now had a years-long clinic in NATO weapons and tactics. They’ve integrated drones into their ops fully. And now the Ukraine is running out of men and weapons.
Posted on 3/20/25 at 8:28 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
Or what? Go ahead Zelenski keep kidnapping people off the streets to fight in your war. Just don't ask us to finance it in any way
Posted on 3/21/25 at 10:11 am to wackatimesthree
quote:
I'll bet you the beer in this emoji that Ukraine comes away with nothing.
I believe Ukraine will remain an independent country, if in the economic sphere of Putin. I don't believe Zelensky will remain in power. What I do believe will happen is that Putin will make small concessions in where the lines will be drawn. I also think it's in Putin's interest to let Trump come away from this looking like a great deal maker.
The concessions I believe Putin will be willing to make are simply where the lines are drawn:
I think Putin would be willing to simply give up some of the red areas while keeping the most strategic parts I described before. He gets what he wants, Zelensky can say he got something from the deal, and Trump can come away looking like an international deal-maker.
But there's a complication. Transnistria. If Putin is actually interested in the dissolution of the Ukrainian state, and for it to be folded into the Russian state, once the current hostilities subside, he may then stir up trouble in western Ukraine and use that as a pretext for more aggression.
Personally, I believe he really just wants the Ukrainian economy for himself, and no EU/NATO ties to Ukraine.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 10:14 am to GoAwayImBaitn
Ukrainians need to figure out how to replace zelinsky….
Posted on 3/21/25 at 10:17 am to Major Dutch Schaefer
Russia is expanding! Good luck Ukrainians!
Posted on 3/21/25 at 10:17 am to jp4lsu
quote:
He knows that wont be agreed too but he has to.maintain the support of his people.
Wait, you think he actually has the support of his people?Posted on 3/21/25 at 10:18 am to laxtonto
quote:
Z is doing the art of the deal dictated by Trump. Ask for the moon when you are not in the power position and see what shakes loose. The Ukraine has to state a position to negotiate back from, so these initial red lines are pretty much worthless.
Now Trump can “negotiate” a different arrangement and go back and forth.
My guess is this leads to Russia keeping Crimea but Ukraine getting some of the lost territory back and now all sides (including Putin) can look like they actually negotiated vs terms were dictated by Trump… In essence all get to save face to some degree while still coming to an arrangement.
Damn, you mailed it. If only I could be so concise.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 10:19 am to Major Dutch Schaefer
Say goodbye. He doesn't want elections or peace.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 10:32 am to Zgeo
quote:That is the first thing that has to take place if peace is your goal is peace in that region. The quicker the better and I don't care how it's done.
Ukrainians need to figure out how to replace Zelensky
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