re: Which State Secedes First?

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The first thing the feds would do would be to cut off all federal dollars to the state. They are the 9th most dependent state when it comes to federal monies.

Montana is very nearly dead last in GDP. And even if they did create a finished good to bring to market, the feds are going to block off the interstates into and out of MT.

So before a single shot would be fired, the death grip would be applied. MT requires more federal dollars than 80% of states and is incapable of generating sustainable revenue for themselves.

Much of MT is also on the US grid, so you can expect some issues there, as well.

I'm not a big federal government guy, but this would be nearly as foolish as Napoleon marching into Russia.

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Those are all true but I think there would be a HUGE investment from big business along with a migration of ready and willing people to work and live in a place aligned with their beliefs. I would envision a tax structure extremely favorable to business along with land grands to people willing to relocate. You would also see monies from other nations helping to get this nation on it's feet.

Armed conflict is the last resort. It would be a financial war. The succeeding state would not be allowed to just waltz out of the US without taking on a portion of the US debt to be repaid to the US government.
This means the new "country" would need to secure financing to repay its debts. China is probably the only country with the resources to do this. Congrats on your new independence!
If the new country left on bad terms, any goods exported will be heavily tariffed by the US. The new country must have several major ports to get resources in and out.
You will still need to repay the new financiers so we are talking taxes. Texas may say they have oil but it's actually the oil companies that have oil (unless Texas chooses to be Socialist/Communist and have state owned businesses). Oil would have to be heavily taxed. But that doesn't necessarily mean that you can raise the price of oil as the price is set on the international market. Texas would eventually become Upper Mexico.
You would probably see a mass exodus of corporations not wanting to be based in a new country with a new currency with heavy debt. This would make it even more difficult to get national financing.

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Those are all true but I think there would be a HUGE investment from big business along with a migration of ready and willing people to work and live in a place aligned with their beliefs. I would envision a tax structure extremely favorable to business along with land grands to people willing to relocate. You would also see monies from other nations helping to get this nation on it's feet.

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Money talks. These corporations have shareholders to whom they must answer. Shareholders don't care about beliefs, it's the US dollar (and stability). With heavy debt, the new currency would probably see high inflation.

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Those are all true but I think there would be a HUGE investment from big business along with a migration of ready and willing people to work and live in a place aligned with their beliefs

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Maybe. Until the feds decided to prevent people and business to travel to or operate from MT. Kinda like Cuba was for so long. Then any citizens looking to leave would forfeit SSI, MC, MA, etc...even if they could get in.

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I would envision a tax structure extremely favorable to business along with land grands to people willing to relocate.

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So you move to MT and open a business selling cogs. You can sell a limited number of your cogs within MT for price X. Due to newly enacted tariffs (if not embargoes), let's say the cost I would incur if I'm not in MT would be X+$200. I'm not going to buy your inflated cog, so you can keep it. But maybe demand for your cog in Spain is enormous. How are you going to get it there? Perhaps through Canada, but interstate commerce for MT is now suspended, and cost is going to rise having to move it through a Canadian corridor.

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You would also see monies from other nations helping to get this nation on it's feet.

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The nation meaning MT? Could be. Let's say Canada wanted to bolster its relationship with MT. Think that might draw the ire of the feds? Is Canada going to risk a net loss to prop up MT while sacrificing trade with the US? The feds give out almost 50 billion a year to more than 200 countries. I doubt very seriously any of them would favor supporting MT if the US threatened to withhold aid.

Again, we're probably on the same side in all of this. I'm just pointing out some harsh economic realities...still with no shots fired.

No fed money
No real finished products
Electric concerns
No interstate commerce
Severe tariffs or embargoes
Likely no aid from other countries

It's a hell of a mountain to climb, and we may very well get there in our lifetimes. I'm just illustrating the very real problems baked into this cake.

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. People are pissed up here but you’d never hear about it. The overwhelming majority of us welcome secession.”

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The fact that the folks out that way can keep their mouths shut and wear a poker face until the time is right gives y'all a singular advantage when it comes to getting the ball rolling on the secession front. We Southerners have too many impatient hotheads among us that give our intentions away to the enemy way too early. The fires of revolution and secession need to burn slowly in order to last until victory is acheived.

How would secession work? I just don’t see anyway that happens in my lifetime

I don't think you understand the hate for Liberals and how much better life would be without the abortion loving, handout seeking, rioting, looting, anti-gun parasites.

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How would secession work? I just don’t see anyway that happens in my lifetime

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Secession was driven by Southern nationalism. This is different, it’s the basic breakdown in society along class, ethnic, and certainly urban vs rural lines.

There’s a regional component, which is why I used Montana. But you’re looking at a system breaking apart, and being broken apart.

I don’t see a scenario where a state Capitol votes to leave the Union, because state identities are so much weaker. But I can see local conflicts metastasizing, and federal rule failing. That seems much more likely.

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Secession was driven by Southern nationalism. This is different, it’s the basic breakdown in society along class, ethnic, and certainly urban vs rural lines.

There’s a regional component, which is why I used Montana. But you’re looking at a system breaking apart, and being broken apart.

I don’t see a scenario where a state Capitol votes to leave the Union, because state identities are so much weaker. But I can see local conflicts metastasizing, and federal rule failing. That seems much more likely.

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Another missing component is the amount of sympathy a seceding State would get from people around the nation and a large number of politicians. It's assumed on this thread that the US would just cut them off and strangle them.

My guess is the US Government to go out of it's way to appease a seceding state any way it can to change their minds to stay in the union.