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What just happened in Georgia with Walker?
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:28 pm
538 yesterday had Warnock 51-49. Today it’s Walker 52-48. 6 point swing in 1 day??
I wonder if the repeated “abortion” stories are starting to ring hollow in the ears of even the most staunch democrat? It honestly makes them look like their internal polling is telling them even worse news.
I wonder if the repeated “abortion” stories are starting to ring hollow in the ears of even the most staunch democrat? It honestly makes them look like their internal polling is telling them even worse news.
16
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:29 pm to Goombaw
The polls aligning with reality.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:30 pm to Goombaw
Have you ever followed an election before?
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:30 pm to Goombaw
The debate changed everything. Walker came off as reasonable and not brain dead, so he kind of flipped the narrative, and exposed the media’s portrayal of him.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:31 pm to Goombaw
Polls mean nothing. It’s going to come down to turnout and/or level of fraud involved.
This post was edited on 10/27/22 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:33 pm to Goombaw
Dems adore abortion. So a nice man giving a lady a ride to an abortion clinic likely won over a few Dems.
Dems shoulda stuck with the classic sexual harrassment bs. But abortion is one of the key issues they want to push this election.
Dems shoulda stuck with the classic sexual harrassment bs. But abortion is one of the key issues they want to push this election.
This post was edited on 10/27/22 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:34 pm to Goombaw
Classic poll manipulation to make the party with the "lead" have reduced turnout due to thinking they're "safe".
Same as the OZ/Fetterman race.
Same as the OZ/Fetterman race.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:35 pm to Strannix
quote:
Have you ever followed an election before?
I’ve followed every major election since I was a kid, and you don’t normally see point swings like that in 1 day without something major happening. Walker has been slowly gaining for a few weeks, but usually just incrementally.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:42 pm to Goombaw
Hopefully either the projected volume of Kemp-Warnock split ticket voters decreases or Kemp does even better than what the polls say. Kemp will likely get 3-4% more of the vote than Walker, so if Kemp gets over 53% against gap-tooth then there's a good chance Walker gets over 50% and avoids a runoff.
I understand that split ticket voters still exist but I don't understand the difference between Kemp and Walker being 4%. If those people aren't voting for gap-tooth then why are they voting for Warnock? Is he really doing that good of a job of conning voters into thinking he's "moderate"?
I understand that split ticket voters still exist but I don't understand the difference between Kemp and Walker being 4%. If those people aren't voting for gap-tooth then why are they voting for Warnock? Is he really doing that good of a job of conning voters into thinking he's "moderate"?
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:43 pm to Goombaw
quote:Same polling service?
538 yesterday had Warnock 51-49. Today it’s Walker 52-48. 6 point swing in 1 day??
Surely you understand that different services tend to produce results more friendly to one party or the other.
This post was edited on 10/27/22 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:43 pm to Goombaw
They’ll start acknowledging the truth the closer we get to election date. That’s what’s happening.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:50 pm to AggieHank86
538 is an aggregate service/model projection. Not always accurate, but they take in a lot of info.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:51 pm to Goombaw
Because most people dont care that the democrats are saying that walker did something legal back in 1993.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:56 pm to Goombaw
quote:I did not notice the “538.” Thx
538 is an aggregate service/model projection. Not always accurate, but they take in a lot of info.
Their site still shows Warnock leading by 1.7 points.
The graphic is cool. It shows the trends, but also a scatterplot of the underlying data points.
OP what is your source?
This post was edited on 10/27/22 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 10/27/22 at 3:56 pm to Goombaw
Walker has led in like 4 of the last 5 polls with the only one he wasn't leading in a tie. This isn't a sudden switch it's a gradual one. Something like a week ago Nate had it at something like 65-35 Warnock.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 4:00 pm to MFn GIMP
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
·
6h
GEORGIA POLL By Rasmussen
SENATE
(R) Herschel Walker 48% (+5)
(D) Raphael Warnock 43%
GOVERNOR
(R) Brian Kemp 51% (+10)
(D) Stacey Abrams 41%
Indies - Sen: 49/35 (Walker +14)
indies - Gov: 49/32 (Kemp +17)
10/23-24 | 1,053 LV | MOE ±3%
Ras LINK
@IAPolls2022
·
6h
GEORGIA POLL By Rasmussen
SENATE
(R) Herschel Walker 48% (+5)
(D) Raphael Warnock 43%
GOVERNOR
(R) Brian Kemp 51% (+10)
(D) Stacey Abrams 41%
Indies - Sen: 49/35 (Walker +14)
indies - Gov: 49/32 (Kemp +17)
10/23-24 | 1,053 LV | MOE ±3%
Ras LINK
Posted on 10/27/22 at 4:02 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
The polls aligning with reality.
Dems trying to salvage credibility by getting right with the reality of the situation.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 4:04 pm to AggieHank86
I was talking about their model projection numbers, here.
That being said, I’m not sure how the two could be so different.
That being said, I’m not sure how the two could be so different.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 4:07 pm to Goombaw
I think that the take-away here is that it is still a very close race, probably within the margin of error for any sort of polling.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 4:07 pm to Goombaw
Georgia voters are letting the reality sink in that inflation is killing them.
I also think this second story, which sounds ridiculous and was brought by a California liberal, it getting tiresome.
The negative ads are just overwhelming and I think Georgians are just over them!
I also think this second story, which sounds ridiculous and was brought by a California liberal, it getting tiresome.
The negative ads are just overwhelming and I think Georgians are just over them!
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