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Goombaw
| Favorite team: | Alabama  |
| Location: | Kentucky |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 6093 |
| Registered on: | 1/22/2013 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
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I figured out exactly how Alabama can miss the SEC Championship Game without another loss
Posted by Goombaw on 11/20/25 at 1:13 am
There is a very narrow path that could put Georgia over Alabama in the SECCG even with a win at Auburn but it needs some specific game outcomes to take place. I'll put them here in order of importance:
1. Kentucky beats Vanderbilt (23% chance) AND Ole Miss beats Mississippi State (78% chance)
These are the main dominoes that MUST happen if UGA wants to make it to Atlanta. There was no scenario without both of these outcomes that gets Georgia into the SECCG.
2. Florida beats Tennessee (35% chance)
If the Gators upset the Vols, it would help Georgia's chances tremendously as long as Kentucky and Ole Miss both win. If Tennessee wins, Georgia wouldn't be totally out of it, but some other things would need to happen to compensate. (Texas over Arky, followed by Arky over Mizzou 36% chance)
3. Texas beats Arkansas (83% chance)
This one also has a caveat: If Arkansas were to beat Texas, it would knock Georgia out of the championship game UNLESS the Hogs followed it up with a win against Missouri the next week.
I want to be clear that some combination of ALL of these needs to happen, not just the first one. It's kind of crazy to see how weirdly impactful the Missouri - Arkansas game could end up being, if the dominoes all fell into place. That being said, this weekend could settle it if Vandy beats UK. The Iron Bowl would truly be a "win and you're in" game.
There also might be an argument to be made that Alabama doesn't need or even want the SECCG. Currently, the ESPN Playoff Predictor has Alabama with a 67% shot to make it with an SECCG loss, and an 84% chance to make it if they don't even go. Now, how that would actually play out in the committee's final rankings on Selection Sunday is anyone's guess.
This was all made possible by mred's SEC Standings generator.
1. Kentucky beats Vanderbilt (23% chance) AND Ole Miss beats Mississippi State (78% chance)
These are the main dominoes that MUST happen if UGA wants to make it to Atlanta. There was no scenario without both of these outcomes that gets Georgia into the SECCG.
2. Florida beats Tennessee (35% chance)
If the Gators upset the Vols, it would help Georgia's chances tremendously as long as Kentucky and Ole Miss both win. If Tennessee wins, Georgia wouldn't be totally out of it, but some other things would need to happen to compensate. (Texas over Arky, followed by Arky over Mizzou 36% chance)
3. Texas beats Arkansas (83% chance)
This one also has a caveat: If Arkansas were to beat Texas, it would knock Georgia out of the championship game UNLESS the Hogs followed it up with a win against Missouri the next week.
I want to be clear that some combination of ALL of these needs to happen, not just the first one. It's kind of crazy to see how weirdly impactful the Missouri - Arkansas game could end up being, if the dominoes all fell into place. That being said, this weekend could settle it if Vandy beats UK. The Iron Bowl would truly be a "win and you're in" game.
There also might be an argument to be made that Alabama doesn't need or even want the SECCG. Currently, the ESPN Playoff Predictor has Alabama with a 67% shot to make it with an SECCG loss, and an 84% chance to make it if they don't even go. Now, how that would actually play out in the committee's final rankings on Selection Sunday is anyone's guess.
This was all made possible by mred's SEC Standings generator.
1
Ever been to Coleman?
I figured out exactly how Alabama can miss the SECCG even if they win out
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 11:57 pm
There is a very narrow path that could put Georgia over Alabama in the SECCG, even with a win at Auburn but it needs some specific game outcomes to take place. I'll put them here in order of importance:
1. Kentucky beats Vanderbilt (23% chance) AND Ole Miss beats Mississippi State (78% chance)
These are the main dominoes that MUST happen if UGA wants to make it to Atlanta. There was no scenario without both of these outcomes that gets Georgia into the SECCG.
2. Florida beats Tennessee (35% chance)
If the Gators upset the Vols, it would help Georgia's chances tremendously as long as Kentucky and Ole Miss both win. If Tennessee wins, Georgia wouldn't be totally out of it, but some other things would need to happen to compensate. (Texas over Arky, followed by Arky over Mizzou 36% chance)
3. Texas beats Arkansas (83% chance)
This one also has a caveat: If Arkansas were to beat Texas, it would knock Georgia out of the championship game UNLESS the Hogs followed it up with a win against Missouri the next week. The hit to Alabama's OWP if Missouri loses would knock them below UGA in this specific scenario.
I want to be clear that some combination of ALL of these needs to happen, not just the first one. It's also kind of crazy to see how weirdly impactful the Missouri - Arkansas game could end up being, if the dominoes all fell into place. That being said, this weekend could settle it if Vandy wins. The Iron Bowl would truly be a "win and you're in" game.
There also might be an argument to be made that Alabama doesn't need or even want the SECCG. Currently, the ESPN Playoff Predictor has Alabama with a 67% shot to make it with an SECCG loss, and an 84% chance to make it if they don't even go. Now, how that would actually play out in the final rankings on Selection Sunday is anyone's guess.
This was all made possible by mred's SEC Standings generator.
1. Kentucky beats Vanderbilt (23% chance) AND Ole Miss beats Mississippi State (78% chance)
These are the main dominoes that MUST happen if UGA wants to make it to Atlanta. There was no scenario without both of these outcomes that gets Georgia into the SECCG.
2. Florida beats Tennessee (35% chance)
If the Gators upset the Vols, it would help Georgia's chances tremendously as long as Kentucky and Ole Miss both win. If Tennessee wins, Georgia wouldn't be totally out of it, but some other things would need to happen to compensate. (Texas over Arky, followed by Arky over Mizzou 36% chance)
3. Texas beats Arkansas (83% chance)
This one also has a caveat: If Arkansas were to beat Texas, it would knock Georgia out of the championship game UNLESS the Hogs followed it up with a win against Missouri the next week. The hit to Alabama's OWP if Missouri loses would knock them below UGA in this specific scenario.
I want to be clear that some combination of ALL of these needs to happen, not just the first one. It's also kind of crazy to see how weirdly impactful the Missouri - Arkansas game could end up being, if the dominoes all fell into place. That being said, this weekend could settle it if Vandy wins. The Iron Bowl would truly be a "win and you're in" game.
There also might be an argument to be made that Alabama doesn't need or even want the SECCG. Currently, the ESPN Playoff Predictor has Alabama with a 67% shot to make it with an SECCG loss, and an 84% chance to make it if they don't even go. Now, how that would actually play out in the final rankings on Selection Sunday is anyone's guess.
This was all made possible by mred's SEC Standings generator.
Bristow might be a the glue guy this year.
WOOOOO :nana: :nana:
re: Alabama @ Illinois - FS1 8 CST
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 10:34 pm to UltimaParadox
Geeeez
re: Alabama @ Illinois - FS1 8 CST
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 10:28 pm to Bamafan4evr12
No way that's a foul.
At some point we have to quit shooting 50 ft 3's
All they have to do is run in and throw the ball up and the ref is gonna call a foul.
re: Alabama @ Illinois - FS1 8 CST
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 10:07 pm to UltimaParadox
BALL DON'T LIE
Ehhhh, "control" is a big word. We've got a ton of guys in foul trouble and the refs are calling everything.
re: Alabama @ Illinois - FS1 8 CST
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 9:55 pm to Lieutenant Dan
He was out!
Man, Bristow might be good.
re: Alabama @ Illinois - FS1 8 CST
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 9:25 pm to Bryant91092
This team could still go a number of ways, so I don't want to speak too soon, but I can tell I've still got a little of the old Alabama basketball mindset that says we must capitalize on a specific player's time here because without him we won't be very good next year.
Going all the way back to Herb and Petty, then Miller, Quinerly, Sears... It just doesn't seem real that we could still be a competitive team this season because, in my experience, a lot of those guys would've been the unicorn that heroically put the team on his back for a couple of years, might've gotten us an early exit tourney appearance, and as soon as they're gone, we're back to square one.
The wheels could still fall off this team, sure, but Nate's proven that he can maintain a level of success at Alabama that I've never known in my lifetime.
Going all the way back to Herb and Petty, then Miller, Quinerly, Sears... It just doesn't seem real that we could still be a competitive team this season because, in my experience, a lot of those guys would've been the unicorn that heroically put the team on his back for a couple of years, might've gotten us an early exit tourney appearance, and as soon as they're gone, we're back to square one.
The wheels could still fall off this team, sure, but Nate's proven that he can maintain a level of success at Alabama that I've never known in my lifetime.
re: Alabama @ Illinois - FS1 8 CST
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 9:06 pm to mistaken4193
We can't get a lead
What a 3 by Allen
What a 3 by Allen
re: Alabama @ Illinois - FS1 8 CST
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 9:04 pm to UltimaParadox
Holloway needs to sit a little while.
re: Alabama @ Illinois - FS1 8 CST
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 9:02 pm to UltimaParadox
Holloway... bro.
re: I told y’all not to trust the ncaa committee…
Posted by Goombaw on 11/19/25 at 3:49 pm to antibarner
There is no scenario I’ve ran that puts UGA in the SECCG over us, and I’ve ran a ton of them.
Edit: if we beat Auburn
Edit: if we beat Auburn
re: Basically, Alabama is going to get left out
Posted by Goombaw on 11/18/25 at 10:46 pm to bamatide07
Posted in another thread, but I'm reposting here.
Obviously, the best path to the Playoff and the one I hope we are on, is to win out. But there is still a path if Alabama loses the SECCG and it looks like this:
If everyone ahead of us wins out the regular season and we lose a competitive game to A&M
1. Ohio State (13-0)
2. Texas A&M (13-0)
3. Georgia (11-1)
4. Indiana (12-1)
5. Texas Tech (12-1)
6. Ole Miss (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-1)
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
10. Georgia Tech (11-2)
11. Alabama (10-3)
12. Tulane (10-2)
Just outside will be:
BYU and Utah - Behind Alabama already. Would be their CG loser.
Miami - Already behind us, no ranked opponents left, and almost 0% chance of making their conference champ game.
Vanderbilt - We beat them head to head
Michigan and USC - Three losses, not a chance.
____________________________________________
Here are the only scenarios that could possibly knock a 3-loss Bama (with the third loss being in the SECCG) out:
Michigan beating Ohio State would make me nervous because at the end of the year, you would have a 10-2 team that beat the likely Big 10 Champ just sitting there, versus a 10-3 Alabama, who had to play an extra game.
USC beating Oregon would cause some chaos and put us in a 3-way battle between two 10-2 teams, and a 10-3 Alabama that, again, had to play an extra game.
Texas Tech losing in the Big 12 CG. Whoever they lost to would be in and Texas Tech would also likely be an at-large. That's where Notre Dame being ahead of us stinks, because it would likely come down to us against them, and we had to play an extra game.
Obviously, the best path to the Playoff and the one I hope we are on, is to win out. But there is still a path if Alabama loses the SECCG and it looks like this:
If everyone ahead of us wins out the regular season and we lose a competitive game to A&M
1. Ohio State (13-0)
2. Texas A&M (13-0)
3. Georgia (11-1)
4. Indiana (12-1)
5. Texas Tech (12-1)
6. Ole Miss (11-1)
7. Oregon (11-1)
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
10. Georgia Tech (11-2)
11. Alabama (10-3)
12. Tulane (10-2)
Just outside will be:
BYU and Utah - Behind Alabama already. Would be their CG loser.
Miami - Already behind us, no ranked opponents left, and almost 0% chance of making their conference champ game.
Vanderbilt - We beat them head to head
Michigan and USC - Three losses, not a chance.
____________________________________________
Here are the only scenarios that could possibly knock a 3-loss Bama (with the third loss being in the SECCG) out:
Michigan beating Ohio State would make me nervous because at the end of the year, you would have a 10-2 team that beat the likely Big 10 Champ just sitting there, versus a 10-3 Alabama, who had to play an extra game.
USC beating Oregon would cause some chaos and put us in a 3-way battle between two 10-2 teams, and a 10-3 Alabama that, again, had to play an extra game.
Texas Tech losing in the Big 12 CG. Whoever they lost to would be in and Texas Tech would also likely be an at-large. That's where Notre Dame being ahead of us stinks, because it would likely come down to us against them, and we had to play an extra game.
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