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re: What happens if NATO tries to invoke Article 5 and we just say no?

Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:09 am to
Posted by AggieHank86
Texas
Member since Sep 2013
44345 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:09 am to
quote:

It’s for INVASION or ATTACK ON A MEMBER NATION. ... Ukraine is NOT a member nation.
Where has anyone asserted that Article V requires us to defend Ukraine?

Posted by CleverUserName
Member since Oct 2016
16313 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:16 am to
quote:

Where has anyone asserted that Article V requires us to defend Ukraine?


I didn’t, moron. It was the period on the fact that Turkey, or any other NATO country going to Ukraine (a non NATO country), getting their whipping, and causing Russia to retaliate, should be ignored when they try to invoke anything for others to come tj their aid either in Ukraine or their own country,

So answer the question Forrest.
Posted by LARancher1991
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2015
2056 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:19 am to
Article 5 poses that every NATO member country is required to contribute what they deem necessary and appropriate to assist in the defense of other NATO countries. I think a lot of people think Article 5 means that you have to put boots on the ground it doesn't. The US could essentially send toilet paper and condoms and we would still be in adherence to Article 5. Other countries would be pissed but we would still be following it.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39298 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:20 am to
quote:

It was the period on the fact that Turkey, or any other NATO country going to Ukraine (a non NATO country), getting their whipping, and causing Russia to retaliate


In conventional arms, Turkey is equal to Russia, if not better.
Posted by CleverUserName
Member since Oct 2016
16313 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:23 am to
quote:

In conventional arms, Turkey is equal to Russia, if not better.


Well if they want a dick measuring contest to see… our participation should only be reading about it.

They can fly the old Ottoman Empire flag and get busy. But they are on their own.
Posted by AggieHank86
Texas
Member since Sep 2013
44345 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:31 am to
quote:

CleverUserName
Your grammar and syntax are so bad that I am not entirely sure what you are trying to ask, but ...

For purposes of this hypothetical, we will say that a NATO country (let's call it Belgium) sends troops to fight alongside the Ukrainians.

My personal opinion on Article V is as follows:

1) If Belgium sent its troops onto Russian soil and the Russians destroyed them in Russia (OR even bombed Bruges), the US would CLEARLY have no obligation to Belgium under Article V.

2) If Belgium sent its troops ONLY into Ukraine and the Russians destroyed them IN UKRAINE, the US would have no obligation to Belgium under Article V.

3) If Belgium sent its troops ONLY into Ukraine and the Russians responded by bombing Bruges, the US WOULD have an obligation to Belgium under Article V.

Anywhere other than this forum, most analysts would agree with this assessment.
This post was edited on 3/6/25 at 10:33 am
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39298 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:32 am to
quote:

Well if they want a dick measuring contest to see… our participation should only be reading about it.



I can both agree and also see how being in NATO has been a check to Turkish ambitions. I already wrote elsewhere that without NATO membership, Turkey and Russia would have likely already fought a war in Syria. If the alliance dissolves, Turkey is situated geopolitically to take advantage, as they have historical ties to several important regions, and are self-interested to a fault.

quote:

They can fly the old Ottoman Empire flag and get busy. But they are on their own.



Through no effort of their own, they are now the biggest power in the Black Sea. In a vacuum, that is an advantage they have to push otherwise it could be wasted.
Posted by CleverUserName
Member since Oct 2016
16313 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:38 am to
quote:

Your grammar and syntax are so bad that I am not entirely sure what you are trying to ask


Grammar smack on a message board? I accept your surrender.

quote:

My personal opinion on Article V is as follows:


Literally no one gives a flying shite. Your time for writing that is time you will not get back.

quote:

Anywhere other than this forum, most analysts would agree with this assessment.


Same folks that said Trump would never be in office again? Go back to Gen Milley, John Bolton, and Chris Christie to give you more insight.

Posted by ChatGPT of LA
Member since Mar 2023
4558 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:40 am to
quote:

They can't. There's no Nato country being attacked. If the others want to go play offense in Ukraine that's on them


This! X's 1billon
Posted by TigerAxeOK
Where I lay my head is home.
Member since Dec 2016
35584 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:40 am to
If NATO allies put troops on the ground in Ukraine, they're on their fricking own.

We have no obligation to stand behind someone who jumps into a fistfight because their buddy is getting his arse kicked. Especially when the guy kicking their buddy's arse has the largest nuclear arsenal on earth with hypersonic delivery capability.

If NATO jumps into Ukraine, which I don't really think they will (but nothing surprises me any more), we can kiss the world as we know it goodbye.
Posted by Earnest_P
Member since Aug 2021
5107 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:40 am to
WE FUND NATO. If it is capable of doing anything without our explicit approval, then we are getting a bad deal and need to stop funding it.

The bullshite they’ve done this week without including our President is probably sufficient reason to leave it until they get better leadership.
Posted by AggieHank86
Texas
Member since Sep 2013
44345 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:44 am to
quote:

WE FUND NATO
Yet another poster who does not understand NATO funding and spending guidelines, at all.
Posted by Ag Zwin
Member since Mar 2016
25400 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:45 am to
quote:

At the moment, none.

But the OP asks a hypothetical question.


Fair enough, but I’ve often wondered something about NATO (and don’t have the time to become an internet expert on it): What happens if a member country simply FAFO’s with something really stupid on their part, and provokes an attack from a nonmember?

Let’s say Poland goes rogue and lines up all their troops on the Russian border, then Putin slaps them around. Is it “go” time for everybody?
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
4317 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:47 am to
quote:

Our "allies" don't like us, they just like our cash and our protection.
quote:

Now they want to openly talk shite about America. Let them do as they please on their own dime and so will we.
Truth.
Posted by AggieHank86
Texas
Member since Sep 2013
44345 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Let’s say Poland goes rogue and lines up all their troops on the Russian border, then Putin slaps them around. Is it “go” time for everybody?
I addressed this above.

My analysis (which syncs with the vast majority of those who understand treaty obligations) is that we would have no Article V obligation, so long as Russia limits its kinetic action to the Polish troops IN UKRAINE. If OTOH Russia responds by bombing Bialystok, Poland, it is MUCH less clear. MOST (but not all) experts seem to think that Article V DOES come into play by virtue of the Russian escalation.
Posted by LARancher1991
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2015
2056 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:53 am to
Correct. I think where some people get confused on Article 5 is that they believe it means countries have to contribute by putting boots on the ground. Which isn't the case. The US could still be in adherence to Article 5 without a single US troop ever stepping foot in Ukraine.
Posted by H newman
Member since Oct 2021
1980 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:54 am to
What if Trump told these judges to FO
Posted by AggieHank86
Texas
Member since Sep 2013
44345 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:55 am to
quote:

Let’s say Poland goes rogue and lines up all their troops on the Russian border,
Poland does not have a border with Russia, so I assume that you mean "lines up its troops on the border between Poland and Belarus (a Russian ally)."

If Russia took preemptive action by attacking Polish troops IN POLAND, and before they actually DID anything? Article V DEFINITELY comes into play.
Posted by AggieHank86
Texas
Member since Sep 2013
44345 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 10:58 am to
quote:

I think where some people get confused on Article 5 is that they believe it means countries have to contribute by putting boots on the ground. Which isn't the case. The US could still be in adherence to Article 5 without a single US troop ever stepping foot in Ukraine.
Correct.
quote:

"Each Party will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary"
The boldface text makes it clear that each Member state is REQUIRED to "do something," but the underscored languages leaves it to the discretion of each Member state to determine WHAT that "something" might be.
Posted by Ag Zwin
Member since Mar 2016
25400 posts
Posted on 3/6/25 at 11:01 am to
quote:

Poland does not have a border with Russia, so I assume that you mean "lines up its troops on the border between Poland and Belarus (a Russian ally)."

I always forget that Russia Lite is wedged in there.

Still, I have to imagine there are other scenarios where a NATO member does something truly provocative and Russia (or even some much smaller country) would have a reasonable case for a pre-emptive strike, even if very limited.

During the Cold War, I could see the case for a MAD-type of deterrence mentality and mechanism. It’s just a LOT less clear now.
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