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Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:00 pm to Strannix
quote:
es we will run out of hydrocarbons one day.
People stopped believing peak oil theory like 15 years ago. We’re lucky to get 60% of a reservoir in most places, and with continued increase in fuel efficiency for cars, as well as drilling and completion technologies we’ll be be living on Pluto before we run out of oil or natural gas.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:01 pm to Diamondawg
Nuclear is also very expensive. Solar can be reliable in parallel with a battery storage system. But it can never be the only source of power on the grid. Takes up too much real estate.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:12 pm to waiting4saturday
I'm the biggest peak oil tard on the board, I admit. I honestly don't think industrial civilization will exist by 2050. 
But, yeah, I have been wrong so far. Listen to cwill on energy, and while I think he is a bit of a cornucopian type who believes we can grow forever, powerman is what I would deem honestly optimistic about advancements in technology. I just think nothing is as dense, power-packed, and portable as oil, and there is no replacement when it comes to the interstate highway system and global trade.
But, yeah, I have been wrong so far. Listen to cwill on energy, and while I think he is a bit of a cornucopian type who believes we can grow forever, powerman is what I would deem honestly optimistic about advancements in technology. I just think nothing is as dense, power-packed, and portable as oil, and there is no replacement when it comes to the interstate highway system and global trade.This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:14 pm to Powerman
quote:
In 5 years solar will be more prominent than coal.
China didn't get that memo
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:17 pm to Strannix
Do you think we ( and Elon ) know more about fossil fuels and e-powered cars today, or back in 2014?
That's 7 years ago. If we listened to AlGore ( Yeah, I know ) 20 years ago, would anyone possibly believe we've even still be here ?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:31 pm to AURaptor
People in the oil industry knew about fracking more than 20 years ago. It wasn’t a big secret, I recall my uncle (OSHA consultant) describing it to me in the late 90’s. Musk was talking about hydrocarbons eventually running out, plus he was trying to sell electric cars.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:53 pm to Chero987
Pretty sure there was a type of fracking going on back in the 40's or 50's. It really isn't a new concept. And that's not necessarily 'new' sources of hydrocarbons, but also a means to revisit ' dry ' wells and get more out of them which otherwise wouldn't be feasible.
And for ever how cool the Tesla is, it and every other e-car needs a power source. Solar and wind won't charge up those batteries. Not in our life time.
I got into a lively discussion about 'running out of oil ' with a girl in class once. Only SHE was the one saying we won't be running out any time soon, and I was taking Elon's view, that eventually we'll run out. Because at the time, I was listening to the 'experts' of the day, who were saying the very same thing. And I believed them.
This was when I was in H.S.
40 years ago.
And for ever how cool the Tesla is, it and every other e-car needs a power source. Solar and wind won't charge up those batteries. Not in our life time.
I got into a lively discussion about 'running out of oil ' with a girl in class once. Only SHE was the one saying we won't be running out any time soon, and I was taking Elon's view, that eventually we'll run out. Because at the time, I was listening to the 'experts' of the day, who were saying the very same thing. And I believed them.
This was when I was in H.S.
40 years ago.
This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 8:58 pm
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:57 pm to Powerman
quote:
In 5 years solar will be more prominent than coal.
Solar makes up like 2% of energy generation. It's more likely Trump is back in office by August than solar overtakes ANY other energy source in 5 years.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:58 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
Trump is back in office by August
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:59 pm to BayBengal9
Powerman has a sub 80 IQ, I wouldn't put much stock into anything he says.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:01 pm to Powerman
quote:
Did he put a timeline on it?
C'mon Man
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:26 pm to Strannix
quote:
He states here unequivocally that hydrocarbons will become harder and harder to find and the prohibitively expensive to extract.
In 2014 he was courting Silicon Valley. Toyota and Daimler dumped their stocks for a quick profit and he was trying to convince Apple and Google to buy Tesla.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:29 pm to Strannix
quote:
Yes we will run out of hydrocarbons one day.
How do you know this?
I guess it’s kind of strange that the earth naturally produces the hydrocarbons that you’re certain we’ll “run out of”.
THE EARTH NATURALLY PRODUCES OIL AND GAS. And it’s done so for MILLIONS OF YEARS. But yeah it’s about to run out.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:31 pm to DeafVallyBatnR
quote:
He did figure out how to get a billion dollars
Oh man, he sure did figure it out. I'm sure coming from insane wealth after profiting from apartheid didn't hurt!
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:35 pm to LSUconvert
quote:
Oh man, he sure did figure it out. I'm sure coming from insane wealth after profiting from apartheid didn't hurt!
oof.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:41 pm to Strannix
US automakers will be building gasoline cars for another 50 years and diesel trucks for another 100. Train locomotives & Airplanes will continue to use diesel & jet fuel for another 100 years. Boats will probably be using oil for another 200 years. Natural Gas will be used in homes for another 200 years. These are my energy predictions
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:46 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
Solar makes up like 2% of energy generation. It's more likely Trump is back in office by August than solar overtakes ANY other energy source in 5 years.
Coal plants are being decommissioned and solar was the number one source of new capacity added to the grid the last 2 years. Eventually solar will surpass coal. If it's not in 5 years it will definitely be within the next 8 years.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:54 pm to Man4others
quote:
US automakers will be building gasoline cars for another 50 years
Not likely
25 tops
Posted on 5/5/21 at 9:55 pm to Strannix
quote:
What happened since then was not only not close to what he claimed, but the opposite.
To be fair he never mentioned a timeline. He talked about a timeline in generalities but never pinned down a timeline. Will it become prohibitively expensive to extract hydrocarbons eventually? Sure. It seems that no one can pin down that timeline yet. Every time we have these peak oil scares we seem to find new deposits or develop new technology to extract existing deposits that were previously inaccessible.
In the meantime we should always try to be clean with our energy use and not get emotional about it. Humans have an amazing ability to adjust to slow moving demands to perpetuate our species. The forms of energy we need is a slow moving human demand.
This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 10:04 pm
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