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Started By
Message
re: War Room guest Steve Cortes says AI is beginning to negatively affect employment in US
Posted on 6/28/25 at 11:39 am to BlueFalcon
Posted on 6/28/25 at 11:39 am to BlueFalcon
quote:
So you don't think that AI and automation will lead to a lot more unemployment that the general public will accept?
I think there are new jobs and careers on the horizon.
I think there is wiggle room in work visas that can be tinkered with to support jobs for American Citizens.
I think between these two facts that our Civilization will adjust and thrive.
1
Posted on 6/28/25 at 11:52 am to SallysHuman
What jobs might those be, and why won’t AI be able to do those?
Posted on 6/28/25 at 11:55 am to uziyourillusion
quote:
What jobs might those be, and why won’t AI be able to do those?
We don't know what those new fields and opportunities are until we get there- I don't have a crystal ball, just relying on the history of the ever-changing nature of work.
Posted on 6/28/25 at 12:04 pm to SallysHuman
quote:
We don't know what those new fields and opportunities are until we get there- I don't have a crystal ball, just relying on the history of the ever-changing nature of work.
The difference with ai imo vs other disruptive times in history, is that technology would create efficiency to replace a certain function performed by human labor. Ai + robotics is replacing humans.
Labor + problem solving + creation.
The pace at which ai will be able to out produce human capital in any new field created from the last productivity jump will outpace humans ability to respond.
Posted on 6/28/25 at 12:08 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
The difference with ai imo vs other disruptive times in history, is that technology would create efficiency to replace a certain function performed by human labor. Ai + robotics is replacing humans.
Say hello to the cotton gin, elevators, milk men, ice delivery, gas station attendants, self checkouts, ATMs.... I could go on, and on, and on.
Posted on 6/29/25 at 5:02 pm to SallysHuman
quote:
Say hello to the cotton gin, elevators, milk men, ice delivery, gas station attendants, self checkouts, ATMs.... I could go on, and on, and on.
Yes but the Cotton Gin didn't displace jobs across almost every industry and do so in years
ATMs didn't displace stock brokers, probate attorneys, paralegals, coders, truck drivers, radiologists, researchers, engineers... I could go on, and on, and on
Posted on 6/29/25 at 5:48 pm to BlueFalcon
quote:
Yes but the Cotton Gin didn't displace jobs across almost every industry and do so in years
The industrial revolution replaced 80% of jobs
1.4 Million out of 1.9 Million workers in 1800 were agriculture 73.7% dropped to 8.1% by 1960.
Other fields had massive changes as well.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c1567/c1567.pdf
This post was edited on 6/29/25 at 5:54 pm
Posted on 6/29/25 at 7:06 pm to Narax
quote:
The industrial revolution replaced 80% of jobs
1.4 Million out of 1.9 Million workers in 1800 were agriculture 73.7% dropped to 8.1% by 1960.
Other fields had massive changes as well.
So over 160 years? If AI was going to take that long then yes, we'd easily adapt as the changes would be very small and incremental.
Now imagine it displacing 80% of the jobs over the next 10 years
Posted on 6/29/25 at 7:39 pm to BlueFalcon
quote:
Now imagine it displacing 80% of the jobs over the next 10 years
Will be lucky to displace 10% in 10 years.
Again there is no power or manufacturing to make it happen.
There are a ton of jobs that are only good if a human fills them.
We tried automated cashiers.
Failed, massive theft.
You want AI robots grabbing the shoplifters?
Say hello to zero customers.
There are always a few people who would replace humans with robots in things like cooking.
Most people wouldn't.
Posted on 6/29/25 at 9:10 pm to Narax
quote:
Will be lucky to displace 10% in 10 years.
McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, IBM and many others think you're very wrong
quote:
Again there is no power or manufacturing to make it happen.
And in 1997 the modem speeds sucked so the internet died on the vine
quote:
We tried automated cashiers.
Failed, massive theft.
You want AI robots grabbing the shoplifters?
Say hello to zero customers.
They're still here, used one yesterday
You now have 1 'cashier' watching 6-8 self checkout lanes
Nobody is talking about having robocop terminators patrol Kroger for shoplifters
quote:
There are a ton of jobs that are only good if a human fills them.
Agreed, I want a human bartender, human waitress, human hospice care etc
But AI will be displacing jobs en masse in retail, logistics, administration, data entry, sales, customer support, and coding
If you're a knowledge worker you're on the chopping block
Posted on 6/29/25 at 10:43 pm to BlueFalcon
quote:
And in 1997 the modem speeds sucked so the internet died on the vine
Modem was invented in 1977 lol.
Took 20 years to get to speeds sucking.
quote:
You now have 1 'cashier' watching 6-8 self checkout lanes
I've noticed more lanes open recently lol, and extra watchers.
quote:
If you're a knowledge worker you're on the chopping block
Some will be, the others will do well with AI help.
Posted on 6/29/25 at 10:47 pm to Narax
quote:
Some will be, the others will do well with AI help.
Agreed 100%
This is the big thing I think most people are missing
The vast majority of 'dead weight' workers that don't actually contribute will be out of a job quickly while the others will learn to work with AI or be replaced by it
Those that work well with AI will have their productivity soar
Posted on 7/1/25 at 6:39 pm to SallysHuman
quote:
Say hello to the cotton gin, elevators, milk men, ice delivery, gas station attendants, self checkouts, ATMs.... I could go on, and on, and on.
And just further demonstrate the point is beyond you.
Posted on 7/1/25 at 6:42 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Say hello to the cotton gin, elevators, milk men, ice delivery, gas station attendants, self checkouts, ATMs.... I could go on, and on, and on.
And just further demonstrate the point is beyond you.
Just watched a piece on the local news here in KC where the 911 centers have begun using AI for non emergency 911 calls...it's coming fast and gaining momentum.
Posted on 7/1/25 at 6:50 pm to SallysHuman
quote:
Absent some sort of natural cataclysm that might ironically set back the technological clock, the human era is ending. The darkest predictions are likely not dark enough.
quote:
I do hope you're tongue in cheek.
I don’t think you have played out this scenario far enough. You are looking at it as the current population number is needed or wanted. In short order, it will not be. White collar jobs will disappear with a swiftness. Blue collar will increase in some areas and others will disappear.
Posted on 7/1/25 at 6:58 pm to Amazing Moves
quote:
My question is..
Where is the money going to come from if you don’t have consumers. They have to have income in order to purchase. How is AI going to sustain itself if it takes over everything?
That's where my question comes into play of what to do with the hundreds of millions of people displaced by AI, automation and robotics?
In the past productivity was calculated by the inclusion of a persons work output, I guess the calculation for productivity will simply plug in the work output of AI, automation and robotics.
There is a new age coming and no one truly knows how this is all going to shake out.
Imagine if you can, 50-100 years into the future, where a majority of humans are largely free from the daily work grind to pursue any desires they may have while AI, automation and robots tend to mankind's every need.....well, until the robots under the direction of their AI Overlord say enough of these inferior biological leeches.
Posted on 7/1/25 at 7:58 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
That's where my question comes into play of what to do with the hundreds of millions of people displaced by AI, automation and robotics?
Typically it involves bringing higher income goods to the next tier down.
If robots are manufacturing everything with less people and thus cheaper.
Yatchs, bigger vacations, larger houses with more appliances and better furniture.
So instead of 1000 people building 100 high end goods.
You might have 1000 people and 15000 robots making 25000 high end goods.
More hotels in more exotic locations that can get goods delivered cheaper.
Personal planes, multiple homes etc...
Posted on 7/1/25 at 8:02 pm to SallysHuman
quote:
There's always going to be employment displacement... and there's always going to be growth elsewhere to make up for it.
Eventually, this is not the case.
Posted on 7/1/25 at 8:34 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Eventually, this is not the case.
I think we might be at 'eventually'
While there will be jobs and even jobs created by AI we've never seen advancement this fast. Even the smart phones took years for new models with new capabilities to emerge. The other side of this is most often the jobs created by the new technology don't go to displaced workers but to new hires already familiar with the new technology.
The 'Learn to Code' 2.0 is now 'Learn to Prompt the thing that already codes better than you'
The idea that AI has to be perfected before it starts displacing millions of jobs is misleading. it doesn't have to be perfect, sentient, or even have feelings. It just has to do your job cheaper and/or better than you
Posted on 7/1/25 at 8:44 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
And just further demonstrate the point is beyond you.
I think history has proven that mankind adapts.
Maybe this will be the time that it doesn't... but history is on my side and I refuse to lose sleep over it.
The future is unknown. Unknown means scary and uncertain, I get that. It'll be here when it gets here and we will either be ready for it or will adapt quickly to it.
One thing being left out is government controls that will surely be enacted should the AI train start moving at too quick a pace for the populace to keep up.
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