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re: US Looks To Korean Peninsula As Possible Strategy For Ukraine

Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:26 pm to
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

A frozen state of conflict, analogous to the Korean situation, is less costly than a hot war. It’s all costly, of course, but an active war is incredibly costly in all aspects from money to human life to supplies to logistics to ammunition to equipment to medical etc etc etc.


Brother, the US spent $13 billion in SK in 2019 on military expenditures, which is a quarter of what the US spent in Ukraine. The long-term situation, which isn’t going to be resolved, means similar levels of spending. You aren’t thinking through what a frozen conflict entails, which is the security spiral, where states spend as much as they think their enemies will spend. Given that Russia plans to spend $600 billion on defense the next three years, all the states on Russia’s border are going to have to spend similarly. Since you can’t seem to put things together, this means a frozen conflict isn’t going to ensure a decrease in spending over the intervening years.

quote:

Russia harvests over 150M tons of grain, 60M of which is export.


If you remove Ukraine and Russia from the total wheat exports, you get a number that is the same as it was in 2011. Without Russia and Ukraine, the world production of wheat reached nearly 700 million metric tonnes, which is more than every other year in modern human history. Wheat futures seem to reflect that, which is what you can’t seem to grasp.

quote:

Europe is facing a very serious energy crunch, I think this is obvious and well known.


Right, and it isn’t reflected in future prices for some reason.

quote:

Governments have been subsidizing energy costs, racking up enormous debt in the process, but the effects are still being felt by the people.


Do you understand how sovereign debt works?

quote:

Germany, Britain, Italy are facing serious economic hardship in the near future.


Germany is predicted to grow its economy by 1.5% in 2024 and in Italy by 1%. The UK’s problems have more do to with their continued insistence on austerity.

What’s the Russian outlook for 2024?

You need to diversify your sources my man.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

Right now the area they control produced over 80% of Ukraine's GDP.


Absolutely wrong.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
26490 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:29 pm to
Now that's a two weeks that is trying to rival covid lockdowns!
Posted by CarrolltonTiger
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
50291 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

To top it off the entire thing could've easily been avoided.



Putin admires your susceptibility to shitty propaganda. You have the thought process of a geriatric Russian longing for the return of the Soviet Union. .
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
55732 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

The administration of US President Joe Biden is reportedly considering ‘freezing’ the conflict in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, instead of pushing for the country’s victory, according to sources cited by Politico on Thursday.

quote:
Three serving and one former US official told the outlet that a long-term low-intensity stand-off was currently being discussed in the White House.

quote:
The former official compared the possible scenario to how the Korean War of the early 1950s ended in an armistice. There was no formal peace agreement, with both Pyongyang and Seoul claim sovereignty over the entire Korean Peninsula and a demilitarized zone separating the two parts. “A Korea-style stoppage is certainly something that’s been discussed by experts and analysts in and out of government,” the source said. “It’s plausible, because neither side would need to recognize any new borders and the only thing that would have to be agreed is to stop shooting along a set line.”



So are you saying I should hold off on selling any of my MIC holdings?
Posted by TrueTiger
Chicken's most valuable
Member since Sep 2004
82339 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:41 pm to

They know the American people only have so much patience.

Time is running out and there is an election in 2024.
Posted by LuckyTiger
Top 1% On Onlyfans
Member since Dec 2008
52456 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:42 pm to
So just to be clear, you are saying:

- An active hot war is a lot less costly, in just about every metric, than no war.

- Europe is not facing any energy crisis and the future is bright.

- Europe is not facing any economic hardship, especially from anything to do with Russia.


Those are your contentions?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138888 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

Moscow called NATO’s expansion in Europe and its creeping takeover of Ukraine without its formal accession as one of the key reasons for sending troops against its neighbor. The conflict, Russia has maintained, is part of a US proxy war against it, in which Ukrainians serve as cannon fodder.
No shite!

Mark it down. There will be no "Korean" settlement without NATO Concessions to not incorporate Ukraine (and Georgia by proxy).
Posted by LSUnation78
Northshore
Member since Aug 2012
14226 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

Europe is not facing any energy crisis and the future is bright.


Nope, they all died in the winter. Just like we were told would happen last year. Or were the people who said that… wrong? *GASP*
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

- An active hot war is a lot less costly, in just about every metric, than no war.



Read again my bitch. Over an extended timescale, its going to be more expensive. The US spent $360 billion on the Korean War in today's dollars. It would take me some time to find, but given current spending figures, the amount the US spent in the region has exceeded the original amount. And just purely in geopolitical terms, the NATO allies are going to have to spend equivalent to Russia because that is the nature of geopolitics. There's a term for it, possibly coined by Mearsheimer himself, that describes this situation. Obviously that reference went way above your head.

quote:

- Europe is not facing any energy crisis and the future is bright.



You said that Germany and Italy were facing economic hardships, but the predicted GDP growth for both are mostly in line with their growth totals from before the pandemic. Are you just going to invent an argument that I didn't make to avoid discussing the veracity of your own claims?

And I'm saying that any predicted energy crisis is obviously not priced into oil and gas futures, given their trendline. I'm not lying about that trendline, as you can look for yourself. Instead of making up an argument that I didn't make, you could try to include that information into whatever framework you are using and move on from there. Instead, you appear unable to discuss anything at more than a toddler's level. Nicely done.

quote:

- Europe is not facing any economic hardship, especially from anything to do with Russia.



Lol, you really need to diversify your sources. I know that you are limited because of you want your 'perfect 4' foreign wife or whatever to continue giving you pitiful handjobs, but you can do it.

This post was edited on 5/18/23 at 3:53 pm
Posted by LuckyTiger
Top 1% On Onlyfans
Member since Dec 2008
52456 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

Nope, they all died in the winter. Just like we were told would happen last year. Or were the people who said that… wrong? *GASP*

This is an emotional embellishment response by you. I don’t believe people said they would all die in the winter.

Europe benefited from a mild winter which helped mitigate the effects. There was also a reduction in demand due to a weak economy. These are not factors you can or want to rely upon for economic and energy policies for obvious reasons. This is widely available in a variety of sources, such as Al Jazeera, NYT, CNN, etc.


Posted by MasterDigger
Member since Nov 2019
2960 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:09 pm to

Maybe everyone will get a little piece of Ukraine? Even Ukraine!

Posted by LSUnation78
Northshore
Member since Aug 2012
14226 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:10 pm to
quote:

I don’t believe people said they would all die in the winter.


Then you either dont actually pay attention or have selective memory.

Kind of like how people in this very thread are suddenly acting like Russia wasnt trying to take all of Ukraine at the start of this thing.
Posted by lsuguy84
Madisonville
Member since Feb 2009
27388 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

I don’t believe people said they would all die in the winter.


Do you even OMLandshark, bro?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138888 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

A permanent state of conflict wouldn’t be as costly?
Depends on motivation. Biden is crooked as Ben Harrison, Warren Harding or Nixon. The only breaker is his dementia. Given moments of lucidity, he might be willing to throw $1T at Ukraine to shut up Ukrainian critics. The "Korean" example hints at an attempt at international agreement rather than something approved by Congress. IMO, Constitutional levers will impact those plans.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
76463 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

The American public has grown sour on spending more money in Ukraine to fight the Russians.


Trying to remove the election year talking point and turn the mess into a political win for ol joe.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:21 pm to
quote:

Depends on motivation. Biden is crooked as Ben Harrison, Warren Harding or Nixon. The only breaker is his dementia. Given moments of lucidity, he might be willing to throw $1T at Ukraine to shut up Ukrainian critics. The "Korean" example hints at an attempt at international agreement rather than something approved by Congress. IMO, Constitutional levers will impact those plans.



It took us more than a decade to reach 1 trillion in spending on Iraq and Afghanistan, two conflicts we were directly involved in. I'm skeptical spending towards Ukraine directly, not just the accounting methods used to give figures for equipment we are giving them, is going to reach that total.

The reality is that the area will be a flashpoint for a long time, which doesn't portend decreased spending by any of the actors involved.
Posted by Indefatigable
Member since Jan 2019
37314 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:25 pm to
No one has ever managed to tell me or explain who the frick "Colonel MacGregor" is, or why anyone should care about his analysis.....of anything.
Posted by LuckyTiger
Top 1% On Onlyfans
Member since Dec 2008
52456 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

Over an extended timescale, its going to be more expensive.

This depends upon a lot of unknown factors, such as length, costs, levels of support, etc, that you seem to set your own predictions and values upon and take them as real. And you seem to wholly discount other cost factors, such as human lives.

quote:

And I'm saying that any predicted energy crisis is obviously not priced into oil and gas futures

Thank you, that’s all I needed for clarification.

quote:

you really need to diversify your sources.

I read from a wide variety of sources, even ones I don’t particularly care for.

quote:

Read again my bitch.

quote:

Obviously that reference went way above your head.

quote:

you appear unable to discuss anything at more than a toddler's level. Nicely done.

quote:

Lol

quote:

I know that you are limited because of you want your 'perfect 4' foreign wife or whatever to continue giving you pitiful handjobs, but you can do it.


You’re extra petulant today. Your posts used to be quality, even though I had different opinions, but I enjoyed the exchange of views. Lately, however, you seem to have dropped a level. Maybe take a break from this place. It seems to be negatively affecting you.
Posted by Indefatigable
Member since Jan 2019
37314 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 4:27 pm to
Partitions of territory based on the arbitrary whims of the prevailing powers of the day have worked really, really well in modern European history.

We should do more of that!

/s
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