re: Trump versus Biden battle ground state polling trends. Updated with 2020 polls.

PA is lost to corruption and we might as well forget it. Maricopa is completely corrupt and will swing AZ to the Dim again. Fulton? Who knows, but maybe the unpopularity of Biden there in GA is enough to beat their fraud machine this time. NV, I will never believe no matter which way it goes because everything in Vegas is rigged.

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That means Trump needs MI and WI. Trump won both in 2016 and I believe these states are doable in 2024.

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MAGA is going to need insiders to prevent/nullify the fraud MI and WI too, but I believe it's possible.

I do truly believe that AZ is gone though. The amount of California transplants that have left the results of their voting habits in the rearview mirror to the west but brought those same habits to AZ with them, is astonishing and more than anyone realizes. Places like Prescott Valley will always be overwhelmingly red, but Phx/Tempe, Chandler and those major metropolitan areas are becoming as deeply blue as you'll see anywhere. I vacation to AZ every year and I've watched the change happen over the past couple decades.

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I do truly believe that AZ is gone though. The amount of California transplants that have left the results of their voting habits in the rearview mirror to the west but brought those same habits to AZ with them, is astonishing and more than anyone realizes.

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In 2020, Arizona flipped a Dem House seat and now has a delegation that's 6-R and 3-D. And we're not talking about lukewarm Republicans - Eli Crane, Andy Biggs and Debbie Lesko are 3 of the most conservative members of the House. Republicans did this in spite of weak candidates heading the ticket (senate races and gov).

It has been since 1992 that Democrats controlled a single state legislative body (Senate).

Until Kari Lake yipped the 2022 layup Republicans had for governor, a Dem had held the governorship for only 5 of the previous 30 years, and not since 2008. Four years before KL stepped on her dick, the Republican governor won his race by 14 pts.

Arizona has more registered Republicans than Democrats.

Arizona has more registered Independents than Democrats.

Chandler, which you suggest is becoming deeply blue - is less than 30% registered Democrat.

As long as Trump doesn't do something retarded, he'll win Arizona comfortably.