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Message
re: Trump imposing tariffs on all steel, aluminum imports; exempts Mexico and Canada for now
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:17 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:17 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Yeah I don't see a reason to antagonize the EU or SK.
When the EU and SK prove they are not passing through Chinese steel and aluminum they will get their exemption.
2
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:19 pm to GumboPot
If we are concerned about Chinese steel with respect to our national security, then a blanket tariff which affects allies and rivals alike doesn't make sense to me. We should be working with our allies. And if steel is such a national security concern that it requires a blanket tariff, isn't that an implicit argument for nationalization, or direct subsidization? FWIW, I dislike tariffs and nationalization, with nationalization being far more stupid, and tariffs being pretty stupid.
This post was edited on 3/8/18 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:20 pm to GumboPot
quote:
When the EU and SK prove they are not passing through Chinese steel and aluminum they will get their exemption.
But somehow Mexico and Canada have already proved that?
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:20 pm to GumboPot
quote:Meanwhile, we'll be getting taxed more on everything we import from them. Just because some Chinese dudes btfo Trump on some investments 20 years ago.
When the EU and SK prove they are not passing through Chinese steel and aluminum they will get their exemption.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:21 pm to Iowa Golfer
I guess my main thought is I just don't see any benefit coming from it, except maybe scoring some political points in the rust belt. I own restaurants, and not an economist, so maybe I have no clue what I'm talking about. I just don't want to lose my margins on French wine.
This post was edited on 3/8/18 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:22 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
If we are concerned about Chinese steel with respect to our national security, then a blanket tariff which affects allies and rivals alike doesn't make sense to me.
Let me copy and paste what I wrote earlier:
It appears that the strategy is to force countries to show that they are not passing through Chinese steel and aluminum. We already have good control of Mexico and Canada due to our close and long time relationship so it makes sense to give them exemptions right now (plus NAFTA re-negotiations).
The remaining countries will have to show they are not passing through Chinese steel and aluminum. When the do, they get exemptions.
That's a MUCH easier strategy than trying to track down every offending country and singling them out. Make them do the work.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:23 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
And if steel is such a national security concern that it requires a blanket tariff, isn't that an implicit argument for nationalization
Yep. If this is really a national security issue, why don't we just nationalize it? We can have a US Steel Corps and give them cool uniforms and training. It will be like a military unit, except one that goes to war with molten metal and boiler explosions. Just talking about it, I'm starting to feel nostalgic, almost like WWII draft and rationing is real again. Just like when America was great.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:24 pm to Usafgiles
quote:
I just don't want to lose my margins on French wine.
There is such a glut of wine I don't think you have anything to worry about.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:25 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Let me copy and paste what I wrote earlier:
What a long and wasteful mechanism for solving a relatively simple "problem" that's self inflicted to begin with.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:26 pm to GumboPot
I'm not talking about bulk wine. there isn't so much of a glut from higher end french producers. Especially this year, since burgundy and champagne lost half of their crops to hail.
China buying it all up doesn't help either.
China buying it all up doesn't help either.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:26 pm to Usafgiles
quote:
. I own restaurants, and not an economist
You are probably a better economist than most.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:26 pm to GumboPot
quote:Dude, this flies in the face of your reasoning for wanting the tariff with Mexico last week. You realize this, right?
We already have good control of Mexico and Canada
Did Mexico prove they're dealing honestly in the past few days?
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:29 pm to Usafgiles
quote:
Especially this year, since burgundy and champagne lost half of their crops to hail.
I didn't know that.
The irony is that it could still be a shitty year with all the precipitation but low supply of low quality wine will keep the prices higher than normal. Oh well. Hopefully the following years can make up for this down year.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:30 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
At this point there really isn't anything to be concerned about except academic debate about something that isn't close to finalized. I deal with the what is
you still don't take the intention of hitting the material with a 25/10% import tax as credible?
and seriously, you have no opinion on whether this is a good idea or not?
you have no stance, at all, on what the second-order effects might be?
how strange of you to consistently go out of your way to make cryptic swipes at critics of protectionism, as you have done for years now, then. and even weirder is that you talk about others having too much time on their hands. at least i care enough about the issue to have an opinion on it, man. you waste all kinds of time not-talking about it, and you don't even have a real opinion?
so, so weird.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:30 pm to JuiceTerry
Trumpsplaining has disadvantages, you know
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:31 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Let me copy and paste what I wrote earlier:
It appears that the strategy is to force countries to show that they are not passing through Chinese steel and aluminum
yeah, you've still got some explaining to do on that one, as the only "pass through" you've identified is NAFTA
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:31 pm to GumboPot
quote:
We already have good control of Mexico and Canada due to our close and long time relationship so it makes sense to give them exemptions right now (plus NAFTA re-negotiations).
So steel isn't a national security concern enough to where it isn't dangled as bait in a free trade agreement? Doesn't that undermine the national security angle? Given that an 80% capacity utilization rate is the minimum we need for national security, we need to improve production domestically to 91 mmt from 80 mmt. I fail to see how giving immediate exceptions to neighbors helps that either, if the goal is to improve domestic production.
quote:
That's a MUCH easier strategy than trying to track down every offending country and singling them out. Make them do the work.
Even though the steel production numbers from our largest trading partners have remained consistent, in the Japanese and German case, since the 1980's? You're acting like those industries aren't affected by Chinese dumping, and aren't similarly concerned.
This post was edited on 3/8/18 at 4:32 pm
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:34 pm to Usafgiles
Then due to your business you have actual empirical date. Kobe beef. Polices that essentially were a tariff. So we did it to Japan, and they retaliated. Then everyone settled down, and some of those cattle, from that one specific Japanese Prefecture were allowed to migrate. First to nearby prefectures, then to Australia and America. And A5 Wagyu is pretty hard distinguish from Kobe.
Eventually, the price of Kobe in America decreased. Eventually, some Wagyu, not classified as Kobe, actually exceeded Kobe according to some.
Last time I had Kobe at a high end place, 25 per oz, last time I had really good Wagyu at a high end restaurant, 32 per oz. First time I had kobe? 50 per oz.
Actually the entire Kobe tariff, or policy that essentially created a tariff, was more absolute and strict then what we're now discussing.
But anyway, we still don't know which direction steel and aluminum take so premature. Was it good political theatre and strategy? Maybe, and given what we know as of today, I'm in favor of the smoke and mirrors. That could change in 15 days, but for now, no big deal.
As an aside, as an investment, I own a minority equity position in a metal scrap yard. Stainless is really the money maker, although not entirely. I have a bit of an clue about the steel industry. Probably not as much as some others I've seen post on here, but I pay attention as it impacts my distribution and K1 form that particular investment.
Eventually, the price of Kobe in America decreased. Eventually, some Wagyu, not classified as Kobe, actually exceeded Kobe according to some.
Last time I had Kobe at a high end place, 25 per oz, last time I had really good Wagyu at a high end restaurant, 32 per oz. First time I had kobe? 50 per oz.
Actually the entire Kobe tariff, or policy that essentially created a tariff, was more absolute and strict then what we're now discussing.
But anyway, we still don't know which direction steel and aluminum take so premature. Was it good political theatre and strategy? Maybe, and given what we know as of today, I'm in favor of the smoke and mirrors. That could change in 15 days, but for now, no big deal.
As an aside, as an investment, I own a minority equity position in a metal scrap yard. Stainless is really the money maker, although not entirely. I have a bit of an clue about the steel industry. Probably not as much as some others I've seen post on here, but I pay attention as it impacts my distribution and K1 form that particular investment.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:34 pm to MrCarton
quote:
Yep. If this is really a national security issue, why don't we just nationalize it? We can have a US Steel Corps and give them cool uniforms and training. It will be like a military unit, except one that goes to war with molten metal and boiler explosions. Just talking about it, I'm starting to feel nostalgic, almost like WWII draft and rationing is real again. Just like when America was great.
I mean, it's a terrible idea, but if the justification is national security, then nationalization would ensure domestic production at exactly the capacity utilization rate we need.
Posted on 3/8/18 at 4:35 pm to WPBTiger
Adam Smith is spinning in his grave.
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