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re: Trump has it right on the economy. Tariff-hating "conservatives" are clueless

Posted on 11/18/25 at 12:34 pm to
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

That's true. But you cut off the rest of the quote.
So your premise is that one-off corporate tax increases are inherently inflationary?

See, the fallacy is that once in place, corporate taxes (or tariffs if applicable) do not exhibit inflationary pressure. Quite the opposite. The increased prices drive down demand, and thus are inherently deflationary.

The mistake folks often make is to conflate a price increase with the economic pressure for continued increase. Hence the rest of Friedman's quote is "it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output” which creates said pressure.
This post was edited on 11/18/25 at 1:54 pm
Posted by stuntman
Florida
Member since Jan 2013
10827 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 12:48 pm to
quote:


quote:
Make it easier, CHEAPER, for businesses to actually do business.


Sounds great in a vacuum but are you willing to allow the following in America business so they can compete globally?

1. No health insurance or other benefit burdens
2. No liability insurance
3. No injury claims or lawsuits
4. No Workers Comp
5. No Osha or workplace safety requirements
6. No unemployment insurance
7. No paid sick leave
8. No paid family leave


Yes to almost all of them. Of course people should be allowed to sue if there was negligence on the job.

If the tax code wasn't so fricked up making it cost effective for the employee to get those things in lieu of higher take-home pay, and get all the other benefits in the market on their own, at cheaper costs, because again, those insurance companies wouldn't be straddled w/ massive red tape and taxation.

About OSHA; Workplace accidents/deaths were falling at the exact same rate prior to OSHA's creation as after. They aren't nearly as important as people want to believe they are. Just another power grab by government.

Posted by stuntman
Florida
Member since Jan 2013
10827 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 12:50 pm to

quote:

And why didn't the velocity of money ramp up during Trump's first term?


quote:

It did


No, it didn't. It constantly fell, especially during the lockdowns.

But, I do agree w/ the rest of your post that inflation ramped up afterwards because of all the currency creation. It's the Cantillon Effect, which we constantly have, because society is too fricking retarded to want massive cuts to government spending.
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61407 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

The JEC memo says tariffs caused inflation and broad labor-market damage


The JEC report said:

quote:

As the President’s tariffs continue to fuel inflation and uncertainty, Americans are facing a
weakening job market, where fewer companies are hiring and more people are unemployed.
Meanwhile, costs for families continue to rise.



quote:

Parents Are Paying 24 Percent More forCommon Baby Items Since Trump’s Tariffs



quote:

You can like the memo or the Fed paper, but you can’t claim they say the same thing.


The Fed report:

quote:

So far, we have not seen tariffs cause a severe spike in inflation, but they have played a role in buoying prices.


They both found that tariffs depress economic activity and employment. The Fed said that companies say they will invest in the USA when tariffs are announced. History shows they don’t follow through on their promises.

I guess this is another example of WiNniNG.




Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61407 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

At this point it’s a choice between a 3-page partisan memo and a 150-year San Francisco Fed study.


You act like the study took 150 years to complete. Both entities issued papers on the same research.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299705 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

2017: 2.06 million jobs GAINED
2018: 2.70 million jobs GAINED
2019: 2.10 million jobs GAINED


Manufacturing jobs were LOST.

I gave you the numbers.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

those insurance companies wouldn't be straddled w/ massive red tape and taxation.
Cry me a river about insurance companies being "straddled." Insurance companies under Obamacare are a huge part of the problem.

Insurance is one of the few industries where regulation is requisite due to the promissory nature of the product. Insured parties pay in with the expectation of receiving promised services if the need arises.

Regulation is required to ensure that services are actually delivered as promised, and that there is no bait and switch. At every turn, certain players in their industry try to underpay, and underservice their guarantees.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

And why didn't the velocity of money ramp up during Trump's first term?
--

It did
--

No, it didn't. It constantly fell
no, that isn't correct.

M2V increased slightly in 2017. It held steady from that point through most of 2019 until the pandemic.

Furthermore, Fed policy undercut M2V growth during that timeframe.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

Manufacturing jobs were LOST.

I gave you the numbers.
Jun 07, 2019: 75,000 Jobs Added in May - Since January 2017, Manufacturing Jobs Up 3.9%, 4 Times Government Rate LINK

As I said, figures don't lie, but liars figure.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299705 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:36 pm to
quote:


As I said, figures don't lie


Correct

The tariffs Trump imposed on Chinese goods in 2018 had a net negative effect on manufacturing jobs as well overall U.S. employment.

The Federal Reserve Board found that the tariffs caused a reduction in manufacturing employment of 1.4%.


We estimate the likely impact on U.S. consumers and find that by the end of 2018, import tariffs were costing U.S. consumers and the firms that import foreign goods an additional $3 billion per month in added tax costs and another $1.4 billion per month in deadweight welfare (efficiency) losses.
Posted by stuntman
Florida
Member since Jan 2013
10827 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

ry me a river about insurance companies being "straddled." Insurance companies under Obamacare are a huge part of the problem.


Yes, massive REGULATIONS. Ever heard of "Regulatory Capture"? Why do you think it is that regulations get piled on all the time as lobbying is at a fevered pitch?

I'm fully aware of what insurance is for. There are few industries that have to deal w/ more regulations, COSTS, than the insurance industry. Is it any wonder that prices continue to skyrocket in that industry?
Posted by stuntman
Florida
Member since Jan 2013
10827 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 2:50 pm to
"held steady" for only a short time. Is the excuse that the tariffs didn't have enough time to work? And when the economy "opened" again after covid and the velocity increased, why did it plateau even though Biden had the same tariffs on China that Trump did, then Trump increased tariffs?

What's the timeframe we should be looking at to see this magical rise in the velocity of money?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

The tariffs Trump imposed on Chinese goods in 2018 had a net negative effect on manufacturing jobs as well overall U.S. employment.
You may have missed the date of the article?

quote:

The Federal Reserve Board found that the tariffs caused a reduction in manufacturing employment of 1.4%.
It took a lot of gumption for the Fed to ride the brakes hard on T45 economic growth for nearly 3yrs, and then to claim ANY job loss on Administration policy. Powell turned out to be one of several poor appointments in Trump's first administration. We really paid the price in 2021.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

"held steady" for only a short time.


quote:

Is the excuse that the tariffs didn't have enough time to work?
As was pointed out earlier, M2V is multifactorial. Any supposed tariff effect is but one factor.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63343 posts
Posted on 11/18/25 at 9:52 pm to
quote:

It [inflation] is driven by slow growth and weak productivity.

quote:

So your premise is that one-off corporate tax increases are inherently inflationary?
Huh? WTF does that have to do with the claim that inflation is driven by slow growth and lack of productivity? You feeling OK, doc?

quote:

The mistake folks often make is to conflate a price increase with the economic pressure for continued increase. Hence the rest of Friedman's quote is "it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output” which creates said pressure.
It's really too bad I wasn't asserting what you've rebutted here. You did a nice job it.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 11/19/25 at 6:40 am to
quote:

So your premise is that one-off corporate tax increases are inherently inflationary?
---

Huh? WTF does that have to do with the claim that inflation is driven by slow growth and lack of productivity? You feeling OK, doc?
Your intimations about secondary effects notwithstanding, if one assumes significant pass through of tariff costs (which may or may not occur), the economic effects are virtually indistinguishable from those of corporate taxes.

Hence the question:
So your premise is that one-off corporate tax increases are inherently inflationary?
Posted by GoodOleBoy54
Member since Apr 2015
133 posts
Posted on 11/20/25 at 1:44 pm to
God bless can you bless take Trump’s boot/pecker out of your mouth
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