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Trafalgar shows Trump down in PA
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:32 pm
15
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:33 pm to Clemsontigers02
I think PA is going to be hard. He's going to need at least one of Michigan, Wisc or Minny to go with Arizona.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:36 pm to Clemsontigers02
This isn't so bad IMO.
It seems like Trump can get to 260 without any real problem - then Biden would need a straight flush (I don't know poker terms) to hold Trump off in MN, WI, PA, MI, and a combo of NV/ME/NH/NM. Biden needs to win ALL of those! Not easy.
Trump should be able to hone in on the most likely 2 of that batch and just hammer them down the stretch like he did Michigan in 2016
It seems like Trump can get to 260 without any real problem - then Biden would need a straight flush (I don't know poker terms) to hold Trump off in MN, WI, PA, MI, and a combo of NV/ME/NH/NM. Biden needs to win ALL of those! Not easy.
Trump should be able to hone in on the most likely 2 of that batch and just hammer them down the stretch like he did Michigan in 2016
This post was edited on 9/25/20 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:36 pm to Clemsontigers02
quote:
Biden 48.1
Trump 45.9 (-2.2%)
w/in margin of error; 6% still do decide; only 2 points with a month left to go
This is bad news for Biden I think. Undecideds at this point usually swing to the incumbent. Especially given the fear of Trump supporters to voice it officially, this should be even more so the case.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:39 pm to Fun Bunch
Look ever poll will be tight in Pa. He barely won, but he will over perform with white women and union family's. Most people are terrified to say who they are voting for.. shine trump voters are real...
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:39 pm to Clemsontigers02
They’re typically accurate. PA is a tough one. I still like the poll. 2% either way is winnable.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:42 pm to Midget Death Squad
I cant see a Trump voter in PA who couldnt stomach HRC flip to Biden after 4 years of rousing success.
The key will be new voters.
The key will be new voters.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:47 pm to Vacherie Saint
I thought undecideds typically went to the challenger at a 2:1 rate. Obviously Trump could be different...
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:55 pm to Clemsontigers02
I'm talking new voters. New registrants, folks who didn't vote in '16, and voters who have passed away or moved since '16.
That said, PA saw unique benefits from the "america first" trade agenda, particularly in steel. There's reason to think Trump may be stronger in PA than in 16.
That said, PA saw unique benefits from the "america first" trade agenda, particularly in steel. There's reason to think Trump may be stronger in PA than in 16.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:56 pm to Fun Bunch
Depends how many ballots are found in ditches. Will be a tight race in PA.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:57 pm to Vacherie Saint
I think PA is way more possible than Mi, Wi, MN
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:58 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
I cant see a Trump voter in PA who couldnt stomach HRC flip to Biden after 4 years of rousing success.
They hated Hillary. She is evil incarnate.
Sleepy on the other hand is seen as calm and even keel. Doesn't matter if we know better or not; it's just how it is. So yes, there will be people switching over from Trump to Sleepy. The question is how many. I don't think it will be a large number, and there are going to be those who voted Hillary last time but now like Trump's success.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 1:59 pm to Midget Death Squad
Polls are irrelevant pre-first debate. They'll still be mostly fake afterward but polling people to begin with before the two candidates debate anything is a waste of time.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 2:00 pm to bamalee
Union members and families are big. Union members aren’t lock and file with the Dems anymore. The halls may be but the members are not.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 2:00 pm to Clemsontigers02
To be fair he was behind 90% of the time in PA last election.
None of us thought he would win except for that one poster who lives there.
Gonna be close. Just like last time.
None of us thought he would win except for that one poster who lives there.
Gonna be close. Just like last time.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 2:03 pm to SirWinston
quote:
It seems like Trump can get to 260 without any real problem
270 to win has auto-sims and I saw one the other day where he got to 270 without PA, MI, WI, or MN. Got NV and NH. Obviously not ideal, don't want it that close, but still possible.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 2:05 pm to Clemsontigers02
quote:
Since the 2016 primary election, Republicans have added about 165,000 net voters, while Democrats added only about 30,000. Democrats still maintain an 800,000-voter edge over Republicans. But that’s down from 936,000 in 2016, when Trump still won the state by less than 1%.
LINK
This post was edited on 9/25/20 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 9/25/20 at 2:08 pm to Clemsontigers02
Posted on 9/25/20 at 2:08 pm to Clemsontigers02
He was down 5 in Trafalgar last time they polled PA.
Posted on 9/25/20 at 2:12 pm to Clemsontigers02
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