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Message
re: Trade deficit comes in better than expectations
Posted on 12/11/25 at 11:39 am to RogerTheShrubber
Posted on 12/11/25 at 11:39 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
His devaluing the dollar had way more to do with it.
By how much? And what is an historical stable rate?
Posted on 12/11/25 at 11:49 am to BBONDS25
It's gotten really quiet in here......
Posted on 12/11/25 at 12:43 pm to BCreed1
quote:
And that's not what is being argued.
Period. Maybe read the conversation.
No, you are simply trying to make the claim that all of Friedman's beliefs were "in principle only" and that he "changed his views" only when confronted with the reality of policy. In doing so, you make the gigantic leap that somehow Friedman is "pro-tariff," or at a minimum, that Friedman acknowledges that tariffs are necessary. You use Friedman's position on immigration as further proof that there is some sort of "principle v practical reality" divide in Friedman's views, when he has been 100% consistent in this view as well.
This is an asinine attempt to provide an intellectual justification for tariffs, because you can now, in some weird, twisted way, say that Friedman's understanding of tariffs now align with yours, which is utter crap.
This post was edited on 12/11/25 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 12/11/25 at 12:47 pm to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
The dollar has been weak for decades. Might as well fix trade now.
In 2025 the value was weakened at a pace that we haven't seen in about 40 years
This is intentional though
Posted on 12/11/25 at 2:21 pm to Ten Bears
quote:
No, you are simply trying to make the claim that all of Friedman's beliefs were "in principle only" and that he "changed his views" only when confronted with the reality of policy.
No, I simply stated and used his words. One of those phrases is actually "In principle" And in principle he stated "I would like to see free immigration.”
The exact sentence is "In principle I would like to see free immigration.”
The term "In Principle" means you're in favor of it based on what you know. The principle, or the idea, seems good.
Did that mean that he meant that the USA needed to do that? No. Why? Because he saw the issues with policy, which is gov hand outs.
Does that mean he was anti illegal immigration? It certainly does not mean that considering he stated that illegal immigration is good for the USA:
quote:
"Look, for example, at the obvious, immediate, practical example of illegal Mexican immigration. Now, that Mexican immigration, over the border, is a good thing. It’s a good thing for the illegal immigrants. It’s a good thing for the United States. It’s a good thing for the citizens of the country. But, it’s only good so long as it’s illegal.”
Back to you:
quote:
In doing so, you make the gigantic leap that somehow Friedman is "pro-tariff," or at a minimum, that Friedman acknowledges that tariffs are necessary.
Wrong. I never stated he was pro tariff. I stated that in principle he believed total free trade was optimal. But he had an opinion on the policy and nobody can deny that. My exact words backed up by his is in this thread. I will bring them to this post:
quote:
YES, on paper and principle, Milton was not pro tariffs.
See my words? It states clearly "NOT PRO TARIFF"
quote:
or at a minimum, that Friedman acknowledges that tariffs are necessary.
And again. Those words never came out of my mouth. What I did say was what he stated:
quote:
If government intervention in trade is unavoidable, a tariff is less harmful than a quota because it at least generates revenue for the government and provides an incentive for foreign producers to offer lower prices.
Back to what you said:
quote:
You use Friedman's position on immigration as further proof that there is some sort of "principle v practical reality" divide in Friedman's views, when he has been 100% consistent in this view as well.
Let's get your point of view on why he stated:
quote:
In principle I would like to see free immigration.”
— Friedman on Charlie Rose, Dec 26, 2005.
quote:
“Look, for example, at the obvious, immediate, practical example of illegal Mexican immigration. Now, that Mexican immigration, over the border, is a good thing. It’s a good thing for the illegal immigrants. It’s a good thing for the United States. It’s a good thing for the citizens of the country. But, it’s only good so long as it’s illegal."
This post was edited on 12/11/25 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 12/11/25 at 3:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:Don't harsh on 'em bro. Half of them think we have to pay back the trade deficit.
Trade deficits
Posted on 12/11/25 at 3:18 pm to FLTech
quote:Both are signs of a weakening economy.
My gas prices are way down and now this?
But another question, if trade deficits are coming down... how are we going to replace the income tax with tariffs?
Posted on 12/11/25 at 3:25 pm to JimEverett
quote:Our fiscal woes are caused by spending. Not trade deficits. If you take 1992 budget of ~$1.4T and index it to inflation, it's about $3.2T We took in north of $5.2Tr in taxes in 2025. If spending was the "same", we'd be running a $2.0T surplus, or we could have a 50% across the board tax cut.
Then we cut a deal with China, saw our trade deficit double and the fiscal situation began a decline that really has not stopped since.
EDIT: More accurate numbers.
This post was edited on 12/11/25 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 12/11/25 at 3:25 pm to BCreed1
I guess you don't shop or notice the prices of anything purchased.
Some don't feel it at checkout, others do.
So, you are not aware or able to speak for all on this.
Some don't feel it at checkout, others do.
So, you are not aware or able to speak for all on this.
Posted on 12/11/25 at 3:29 pm to PurpleCrush
quote:
I guess you don't shop or notice the prices of anything purchased.
Every day! For personal and for business.
quote:
So, you are not aware or able to speak for all on this.
I am aware. And I pointed out facts that wages are out pacing inflation. Therefore, people are not spending less. Therefore, we are collecting record taxes. etc etc.
Posted on 12/11/25 at 4:02 pm to BCreed1
quote:
YES, on paper and principle, Milton was not pro tariffs.
See my words? It states clearly "NOT PRO TARIFF"
But your very next sentence was (highlights are mine):
quote:
Back to this topic. YES, on paper and principle, Milton was not pro tariffs. In Policy, he understood the need and the results. And he was right as you can clearly see.
To which, I replied:
quote:
In doing so, you make the gigantic leap that somehow Friedman is "pro-tariff," or at a minimum, that Friedman acknowledges that tariffs are necessary.
So, do not equivocate. You are definitely trying to insinuate that Freidman is, if only by necessity, aligned with the pro-tariff crowd.
You do this because you cannot simply come out and say that Friedman was dead arse wrong about tariffs. Or, more bluntly, Friedman doesn't know anything about trade, or economics in general, because his principles were only based on hypotheticals, and that deep down, he knew tariffs are necessary. And if tariffs are necessary, then somehow, they are good.
This alleviates the obvious conflict. Do you know how absolutely moronic it is to claim that some of the best economists in the last century (Hayek, Friedman, Sowell, etc), who are diametrically opposed to your views, do not understand economics?
Now regarding Friedman's view on immigration, we have to define terms. When he said, "in principle, I would like to see free immigration." What the means Friedman means by "free immigration" is the type of immigration we had late 1800s to early 1900s where people came for a better life, worked hard, assimilated, were productive, etc. And without question, the immigration of that period was mutually beneficial to the immigrants and our society and economy.
So how does the differ than the immigration we see today? It's clear as day, when Friedman states:
"Why is it that free immigration was a good thing before 1914 and free immigration is a bad thing today? Well, there is a sense in which that answer is right. There’s a sense in which free immigration, in the same sense as we had it before 1914 is not possible today. Why not?
Because it is one thing to have free immigration to jobs. It is another thing to have free immigration to welfare. And you cannot have both. If you have a welfare state, if you have a state in which every resident is promises a certain minimal level of income, or a minimum level of subsistence, regardless of whether he works or not, produces it or not. Then it really is an impossible thing."
Several things happened between 1914 and today...The New Deal and the Great Society.
As far as his quote on illegal immigrants from Mexico, he isn't "pro-illegal" immigration. Keep in mind this was 2004, and while Friedman was in the last year's of his life, he was equating "illegal" immigration to the legal immigration at the turn of the 20th century, where immigrants came to work, but were not given welfare.
This post was edited on 12/11/25 at 4:05 pm
Posted on 12/11/25 at 4:38 pm to Ten Bears
quote:
But your very next sentence was (highlights are mine):
Which is correct as pointed out from his own writing:
“The Kennedy Round”
by Milton Friedman
quote:
So, do not equivocate. You are definitely trying to insinuate that Freidman is, if only by necessity, aligned with the pro-tariff crowd.
You do this because you cannot simply come out and say that Friedman was dead arse wrong about tariffs.
Why are you lying? I suggested neither. Either he wrote this or not:
“The Kennedy Round”
by Milton Friedman
In short, we preach free trade and practice restriction.
We and the world would flourish best under complete free trade. However, tariffs are a lesser evil than quotas. At least, the government gets some revenue, and foreign producers have some incentive to offer U.S. consumers better terms.
Are you truly trying to sell that he never looked at reality and formed an opinion within that reality? He's saying that in a perfect world complete free trade would be great. He is also acknowledging that we don't. And that between the 2 (tariffs and Quotas) that tariffs are the preferred. then he clearly states why:
- revenue
- lower prices to consumers.
quote:
You do this because you cannot simply come out and say that Friedman was dead arse wrong about tariffs. Or, more bluntly, Friedman doesn't know anything about trade, or economics in general, because his principles were only based on hypotheticals, and that deep down, he knew tariffs are necessary. And if tariffs are necessary, then somehow, they are good.
This alleviates the obvious conflict. Do you know how absolutely moronic it is to claim that some of the best economists in the last century (Hayek, Friedman, Sowell, etc), who are diametrically opposed to your views, do not understand economics?
No, I do so because that's what he stated. I put zero words in his mouth. It is you who is putting words in mine because you need to defend YOUR position.
quote:
As far as his quote on illegal immigrants from Mexico, he isn't "pro-illegal" immigration. Keep in mind this was 2004, and while Friedman was in the last year's of his life,
So he was losing his mind?
Like I said. You are arguing points not being argued against. You are in a defense mode where nothing is being attacked.
Examples of your defense where none is needed:
- free trade. Milton argued for it. Nowhere has anybody stated he did not.
- free trade. Milton changed his opinions on this over the years based on results. Nobody stated he became pro tariff.
- Tariffs. Milton was clear, between tariffs and quotas, tariffs are preferred. And he told you why. And that's where you get hung up. The fact that he stated they were preferred is a problem for you and what makes it worse is his reasons. Those reasons are revenue for the gov and lower prices for consumers.
- immigration. Once again, he prefers open borders and the free movement of people. That's his words. Yes, he had conditions but that does not change his preference. This is the exact same thing that you can not accept with tariffs vs quotas. You can't accept his own words.
You do understand that in both of these he set conditions right? No welfare state vs welfare state. In one.. open those borders baby!! But since we do not live in a reality of no welfare, that can not happen. He told you why. And we are watching it happening now.
With tariffs, he again told you his preference. None and all the world would freely trade as we sing kumbya! The he carved out a big ole "IF" again. Sorry you don't like that. But he stated it clearly. tariffs over quotas because at LEAST there are benefits.
quote:
You do this because you cannot simply come out and say that Friedman was dead arse wrong about tariffs.
Why would I say he is wrong about tariffs? I agree with him on it. His words:
- the government gets some revenue
- foreign producers have some incentive to offer U.S. consumers better terms. If they can cut their price, they can gain a larger share of the U.S. market.
I 100% agree with that. It you and the few that can no understand that concept.
This post was edited on 12/11/25 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 12/11/25 at 4:41 pm to BCreed1
Why did the early American authorities exclude components from Tariffs?
Posted on 12/11/25 at 5:16 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
RogerTheShrubber
you know what that orange bastard did today, he took credit for americans being able to breathe in quality air. I think you should show him and boycott breathing.
Posted on 12/11/25 at 5:18 pm to LakeCityTiger128
quote:
you know what that orange bastard did today, he took credit for americans being able to breathe in quality air. I think you should show him and boycott breathing.
On brand for MAGA. Cant discuss issues, just childish insults.
Posted on 12/11/25 at 5:21 pm to Taxing Authority
The numbers seem fairly clear - at least over the last few decades.
Current account deficits reduce GDP. In order to account for this loss of aggregate demand (or supply capacity - however you want to call it) the government will either spend more, reduce taxes, or some combination. Otherwise there will be a recessionary effect from the loss.
Likewise, as the current account deficit grows foreign capital inflows rise - allowing us to finance more and more deficit spending. At some level or some degree, this is advantageous. It is the benefit we receive from being the large superpower and basically the guarantor of order in the world. But there is some level that seems unsustainable. Regardless - we couldn't run the fiscal deficits we do without the current accounts deficit and the foreign capital inflows that come with it.
As I pointed out - a clear real world example was the late 90s fiscal surpluses we had, which as the current account deficit dramatically increased in the early 2000s the major economists urged tax cuts and a return to fiscal deficits.
If someone is interested in this stuff I think one of the more definitive studies on it is this: LINK
Current account deficits reduce GDP. In order to account for this loss of aggregate demand (or supply capacity - however you want to call it) the government will either spend more, reduce taxes, or some combination. Otherwise there will be a recessionary effect from the loss.
Likewise, as the current account deficit grows foreign capital inflows rise - allowing us to finance more and more deficit spending. At some level or some degree, this is advantageous. It is the benefit we receive from being the large superpower and basically the guarantor of order in the world. But there is some level that seems unsustainable. Regardless - we couldn't run the fiscal deficits we do without the current accounts deficit and the foreign capital inflows that come with it.
As I pointed out - a clear real world example was the late 90s fiscal surpluses we had, which as the current account deficit dramatically increased in the early 2000s the major economists urged tax cuts and a return to fiscal deficits.
If someone is interested in this stuff I think one of the more definitive studies on it is this: LINK
Posted on 12/11/25 at 5:45 pm to Penrod
quote:
However, the dollar has been strengthening in 2025, right?
It's down against the Euro, Canadian Dollar, and Yuan. It was down against the Yen, but after a recent increase, it's close to where it was at the start of the year.
Posted on 12/11/25 at 5:50 pm to RollTide4547
Amen.....best thing we have done.....DJT knows what he is doing!
Posted on 12/11/25 at 8:25 pm to BCreed1
quote:
Why are you lying? I suggested neither.
I literally quoted what you said back to you. You are trying to use something Friedman said as a justification for tariffs. I will address this more down below.
quote:
It is you who is putting words in mine because you need to defend YOUR position.
Again I used your words. Not mine. I can’t help if you are the ONLY person on the planet silly enough to use Friedman as an endorsement of tariffs.
Did you know that Friedman said that tariffs on steel help steel workers in a steel mill? Does that mean he supports tariffs on steel? Absolutely not, because he later discusses the ramifications of those tariffs are far worse than the jobs saved in the steel mill. So he prefers tariffs over quotas? That doesn’t mean you can take that statement as a ringing endorsement of tariffs.
quote:
Milton changed his opinions on this over the years based on results. Nobody stated he became pro tariff.
No, he did not. He always believed in unilateral free trade. Unilateral meaning we should lower our trade barriers regardless of what other countries do. This is indisputable fact. To suggest otherwise is stupid.
quote:
Tariffs. Milton was clear, between tariffs and quotas, tariffs are preferred. And he told you why. And that's where you get hung up. The fact that he stated they were preferred is a problem for you and what makes it worse is his reasons. Those reasons are revenue for the gov and lower prices for consumers.
Hmmm…so, I guess that’s why he famously said said “tarrifs do indeed protect the consumer. They protect the consumer from lower prices.” In the context you are referring to (Friedman’s Newsweek article) he is simply stating that tariffs lower prices versus quotas. Not that tariffs lower prices compared to not having tariffs. To take any other understanding demonstrates an utter lack of understanding of Friedman, what he said, and what he believes in.
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