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Message
2
Posted on 3/23/20 at 10:55 pm to mmcgrath
quote:wow. worldwide after at least 3 months, there are only 16k deaths WORLDWIDE. after a year of h1n1, there were 12k deaths in the us alone.
CV19 is far more deadly and being above 500 deaths now tells me that holding this to 5k deaths may be just wishful thinking at this point
Posted on 3/23/20 at 10:56 pm to Argonaut
The problem is that we already went down the road .. so if CV ends up having a lower mortality rate than H1N1, then the media will proclaim that it was because of the flattened curve and rejoice that we now know it only takes destroying the world's largest economy and putting millions of people in financial ruin to stop the next outbreak!
Posted on 3/23/20 at 10:59 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
FTR we are at 500 right now.
We were at 566 as of midnight GMT. 132 people also died today, higher than yesterday, and yesterday was higher than the day before.
How many people did H1N1 kill on a daily basis?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:00 pm to bfniii
quote:
wow. worldwide after at least 3 months, there are only 16k deaths WORLDWIDE. after a year of h1n1, there were 12k deaths in the us alone.
After just over a month of COVID-19, there have been over 6k deaths in Italy alone.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:04 pm to Argonaut
quote:peak flu season is 4-5 months. last year 34k died. we're more than 2 months into 19 and only have 500 total deaths. of course you're going to appeal to exponential growth. i'll respond by saying that approximately 50% of all us cases are in 4 msa's. add nola and you've got 2/3-3/4 of all us cases. you're leaving out a lot of context
If COVID-19 disappeared today, you'd have a point
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:05 pm to RidiculousHype
If we shut everything down and only 5,000 die, will you admit that the number would have been higher if we hadn't?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:06 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:terrible comparison. 19 is very selective and the numbers have been volatile. but don't mention any of that
How many people did H1N1 kill on a daily basis?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:07 pm to bfniii
quote:
we're more than 2 months into 19 and only have 500 total deaths.
We're at 582 in less than two months.
If you're going to use numbers, use the right numbers.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:08 pm to Argonaut
quote:and this is why the chicken littles can't have a rational conversation about the matter
After just over a month of COVID-19
quote:yet another horrible comparison. you pick the worst hotspot in the world. can you tell us the number of deaths in taiwan and singapore?
there have been over 6k deaths in Italy alone.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:10 pm to Argonaut
quote:except that's not true. basically everyone in medicine is acknowledging cases have been around since before 1-21. but don't mention that
We're at 582 in less than two months
quote:same to you. btw, why are you ignoring the numbers i have been citing? because you want to take numbers out of context to stoke fear and panic
If you're going to use numbers, use the right numbers
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:10 pm to bfniii
quote:
and this is why the chicken littles can't have a rational conversation about the matter
Because you're too lazy too look at the actual numbers?
quote:
yet another horrible comparison. you pick the worst hotspot in the world. can you tell us the number of deaths in taiwan and singapore?
H1N1 started in Mexico, then went to the US where you used for your comparison. Italy was the correct comparison.
Can you tell us the number of deaths for H1N1 in Sweden?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:10 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
If, at the end of this, US deaths end up less than H1N1 (roughly 12,000) then wouldn’t that be a massive success? We keep hearing this is so much worse than H1N1, which justifies the closures, panic, etc. But if we end up at say 5,000 deaths, then what?
FTR we are at 500 right now.
I don’t think 15000-20000 is a crazy number when you compare it to what the flu can do in a given year. I’d like to hear SFP’s prediction. He’s spent the past few days haranguing the Poli Talk board about this being the second coming of the Black Death.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:11 pm to bfniii
quote:
except that's not true.
It is true. That's real, factual data. Not "everyone" in medicine from bfniii's brain.
quote:
btw, why are you ignoring the numbers i have been citing?
Because your numbers are wrong.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:13 pm to bfniii
quote:
so far, that is a dumb comparison. seasonal flu is way way wayyyyy worse at this point
Tell that to the Italians
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:15 pm to RidiculousHype
The natural response to this will be something like, “ are you belittling the deaths from
Covid!?!?” Or someone’s grandma who passed in a nursing home will chime in.
I’d love to post this on Facebook after it’s all said and done.
Covid!?!?” Or someone’s grandma who passed in a nursing home will chime in.
I’d love to post this on Facebook after it’s all said and done.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:17 pm to Argonaut
quote:says the person massaging the numbers. i have been checking the numbers multiple times a day, every day for the last 2 weeks. i know what they are.
Because you're too lazy too look at the actual numbers?
quote:what the hell. NO rational person believes that. not one. the only reason you're using an outlier like italy is because you have an agenda.
Italy was the correct comparison
quote:can you tell me why malarial countries are not having a 19 outbreak? you're being ridiculous. you're acting like the seasonal flu didn't kill 60k 2 years ago
Can you tell us the number of deaths for H1N1 in Sweden?
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:18 pm to bfniii
quote:
19 is very selective
Huh?
Is this where we hear that a straight line on a log graph means it is not exponential?
This post was edited on 3/23/20 at 11:19 pm
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:20 pm to bfniii
quote:
says the person massaging the numbers. i have been checking the numbers multiple times a day, every day for the last 2 weeks. i know what they are.
Then why did you frick them up?
quote:
what the hell. NO rational person believes that. not one. the only reason you're using an outlier like italy is because you have an agenda.
People who get paid to do this are using Italy. People like you who are "watching the numbers" ignore it because it's inconvenient to your points.
quote:
can you tell me why malarial countries are not having a 19 outbreak? you're being ridiculous. you're acting like the seasonal flu didn't kill 60k 2 years ago
Tell us the number of deaths for H1N1 in Sweden, or retract your idiotic point about those other countries.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:21 pm to Argonaut
quote:not it's not because it ignores what i told you - that plenty of people in medicine acknowledges that most people infected are asymptomatic. you seem to think 1)the first confirmed case is the first case, which is stupid and 2)we're early in this outbreak when we're not.
It is true. That's real, factual data
quote:otherwise known as people who have gone on record as saying that. but keep on pushing the agenda. listen, if you don't want to be rational about it, just say so. you'll save everyone a lot of time
Not "everyone" in medicine from bfniii's brain
quote:name one
Because your numbers are wrong
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