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This board and 'risk homeostasis'

Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:47 am
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112517 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:47 am
The different levels of worry re: the virus on this board reminds me of a subject I researched back in the day. "Risk homeostasis" is how people react when life's risk levels increase or decrease. IE, when you are faced with a new danger you act with more caution in order to return to your 'comfort' level. OTOH when things are going great you are apt to take up something risky, like skydiving, to return to your balanced state.

The interesting theory I found in this study is that each individual operates at a different risk tolerance. This is not financial risk tolerance. This is 'it might kill me' risk tolerance.

Think of a scale from 1-10.
Mary is a '1'. She suffers from agoraphobia. She views all places and all people as a threat to her safety. So, she stays home.
Billy is a '10'. For fun Billy drives his sports car at night, at 90 mph, the wrong way on a divided highway, after swigging 2 fifths of bourbon, while his semi-trained wolverine is giving him oral sex.

The majority on this board (re: virus) are 7-8. The minority they are arguing with are 3-4.
Thoughts?
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162231 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:50 am to
I don't know if anyone on the board has any personal concern of the virus killing them

I know I don't. But I basically try to act as if I'm already infected to not send it along to someone who is high risk. It's called not being an a-hole.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:51 am to
Interesting.

So if Billy becomes more frightened by the prospects of catching COVID 19 will he give up the wolverine to get to his balanced state? Is that the concept?

Posted by KCT
Psalm 23:5
Member since Feb 2010
38911 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:51 am to
quote:

The majority on this board (re: virus) are 7-8. The minority they are arguing with are 3-4. 
Thoughts?





I'd say you've basically nailed it.


I'll admit though, as a self-professed 7-8 who is more worried about 1) the economy, and 2) President Trump's reelection, I am beyond tired of this crap. Ready to get past it.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
260902 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:51 am to
quote:

This is 'it might kill me' risk tolerance.


Most are overly risk averse, the product of social conditioning.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89566 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:53 am to
quote:

The majority on this board (re: virus) are 7-8.


Probably closer to 5-6 (although some folks are clearly higher).

quote:

The minority they are arguing with are 3-4. Thoughts?


Definitely not 4. Closer to 2-3, particularly when faced with the actual data and they seem unwilling to even consider a modest cost/benefit analysis (or comparisons with other, easily comparable risks) without resort to saying that those trying to do such analysis/comparisons are putting "money above lives."

These risk averse folks are the epitome of the pearl-clutching, spoiled, emotionally driven folks who dominate the left side of the political spectrum.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
260902 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:55 am to
quote:

These risk averse folks are the epitome of the pearl-clutching, spoiled, emotionally driven folks who dominate the left side of the political spectrum.


Not to mention, social distancing has replaced racism as the hot button virtue sgnalling topic.
Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
54213 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:56 am to
quote:

while his semi-trained wolverine is giving him oral sex.


Is the wolverine toothless? If not, Billy is pretty stupid.
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112517 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:56 am to
quote:

So if Billy becomes more frightened by the prospects of catching COVID 19 will he give up the wolverine to get to his balanced state? Is that the concept?


Exactly. You can see it in alcohol treatment centers. When a person gives up the risk involved in chronic alcoholism they frequently start smoking cigarettes in order to return to their balanced state.
When air bags became mandatory people started driving faster.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:10 am to
When does this "balanced state" establish itself? When does one become a 1 or a 10?
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:13 am to
I think there are probably a lot that talk like 9 or 10s but are in reality 2 or 3s. Particularly those war hawks on here--none of them would go to the front line voluntarily I suspect.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89566 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:16 am to
quote:

I think there are probably a lot that talk like 9 or 10s


Maybe, but not the majority and particularly not on this topic. Most people have been been realistic about this - moderate risk, skewed to the old and sick, and maybe they're a little more chomping at the bit to get back to work.

quote:

Particularly those war hawks on here--none of them would go to the front line voluntarily I suspect.


That has zero to do with this topic.
Posted by Jimbeaux
Member since Sep 2003
20119 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:23 am to
It’s an interesting theory, but it doesn’t seem textured enough.

We are creatures that are evolved to concern ourselves with risk. And rewards.

Is that red berry good to eat, or poisonous. A potential risk or reward.

We are constantly assessing risk/reward and constantly gathering evidence to help us.

Within that context, there are many reasons why some people have higher tolerance for risk. It’s their personality and their past experience, but also it’s their current perceptions.

What molds people’s perception of risk? Internal factors, for sure, but also external, such as media exposure, etc.
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112517 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:32 am to
quote:

When does this "balanced state" establish itself? When does one become a 1 or a 10?


That's a good question. I haven't read anything on it's relation to our childhood but my guess is that it starts there. I've been around extremely rural people in Tenn. who let there 4 y.o. boy run around naked in summer in weed fields taller than the kid. I doubt if those kids grow up to be fearful of much.
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112517 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:35 am to
quote:

What molds people’s perception of risk? Internal factors, for sure, but also external, such as media exposure, etc.


Good points. But I've known siblings who were raised in the same environment and had extremely similar experiences. But one was a fearless risk taker and the other was extremely cautious.

I would also assume that people who enlist for military duty have a very high risk tolerance.
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:40 am to
I'm familiar with the concept but risk aversion isn't the only issue here.

If I don't want to get hit by a car and therefore don't cross the street that's a decision I'm making.

If I don't want to get hit by a car and my solution is to destroy people's livelihoods so they can't afford cars that's an entirely different approach to avoiding risk.

The point being is that you can be as risk-averse as you want to be. What isn't okay is to think that any amount of harm you inflict on other people is acceptable to avoid that risk
Posted by thetempleowl
dallas, tx
Member since Jul 2008
14834 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:46 am to
Interesting thoughts.

I think I am moderately concerned about this virus. In a sense, I don't think it is extremely deadly, and may be close to an order of magnitude lower than what it is. I think we have underestimated its rate of infection just as we have overestimated its mortality.

My major concern is healthcare resources. If everyone gets sick, everything gets overwhelmed.

I think this places me high on this board, but in the united states, this places me at a moderate perhaps 6. I have a respect for this virus.

I don't know where that places me on the who risk homeostasis chart. I guess financially I am a bit more concerned about what are the long term effects.

In short I tend to try to figure what I think is going to happen before I get too concerned or not concerned about something.

Honestly, I am unsure of this thing because I think there is a lot of stupidity out there that could totally screw things up. I am kinda as afraid of the lets do nothings as I am lets shut down everything.

I don't know. Kinda in the middle, but I guess that is where I am on most things so perhaps that is my normal risk homeostasis.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:07 pm to
the op is conflating 2 different things that is what i have been saying to the chicken little crowd. of course people are scared of this virus and don't want it. it's dangerous. no one is denying that.

the RESPONSE is what people are objecting to because it's not sensible.

we live with risk all day every day but for most people, their responses are measured and sensible. most people put their seat belt on and drive somewhat responsibly. a select few ride racing motorcycles. the point is, we don't shut down motorcycle production and ban them because a select few people choose to take on more risk riding donorcycles.

we don't close down beaches because of skin cancer
we don't ban all cigarettes/vaping
we don't actively eliminate all deer (look up deer auto accident stats)

we could go on and on with this list
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112517 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:15 pm to
That's not my point. The OP is about how different people react to exactly the same increase in risk at totally different levels. Why? Because we are wired for different levels of risk comfort.
Posted by themunch
Earth. maybe
Member since Jan 2007
64680 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

Is the wolverine toothless? If not, Billy is pretty stupid.


Reward over risk.

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