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The polls really have me worried
Posted on 10/11/20 at 11:34 am
Posted on 10/11/20 at 11:34 am
7
Posted on 10/11/20 at 12:29 pm to Frank Black
This particular poll wasn’t wrong since Clinton won the popular vote. Now the specific state polls may have been wrong. But this also why the national poll doesn’t mean a damn, you have to look at swing state polls (PA, FL, OH, WI, MI, MN,etc.) since that is what will decide the election.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 12:53 pm to PentagonTiger
quote:
This particular poll wasn’t wrong since Clinton won the popular vote.
This poll says TWELVE. She won by TWO
Posted on 10/11/20 at 1:08 pm to Frank Black
Great post -
Bc everything is exactly the same about this election cycle with turnout expectations.
Also, it’s a great strategy to beat the odds 2x in a row.
This board is ridiculous in how they use 2016 to denounce any poll that shows Trump is behind.
2016 has zero relevance to this years election turnout
Bc everything is exactly the same about this election cycle with turnout expectations.
Also, it’s a great strategy to beat the odds 2x in a row.
This board is ridiculous in how they use 2016 to denounce any poll that shows Trump is behind.
2016 has zero relevance to this years election turnout
Posted on 10/11/20 at 1:11 pm to Frank Black
Damn they airbrushed the shite out of that old hag. 
Posted on 10/11/20 at 1:12 pm to PentagonTiger
quote:
his particular poll wasn’t wrong since Clinton won the popular vote.
LOL! Sure, she won by 12 points.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:08 pm to Brood211
Conservatives have to keep their mouths shut. It used to be ridicule from the left, then about a decade ago cancel culture started. Don’t support Obama? Enjoy getting fired for your “racism” or having your employer make your work life hell until you quit.
But you sorry mofos started a whole another level when you began turning American cities into Mogadishu and Fallujah. Arresting people for self defense acts. Releasing felons on no bail. Attacking children for wearing a MAGA hat.
No it is not 2016 any more. People with brains aren’t talking their voting positions. People voting Biden/Heelsup are screaming from the rooftops.
But you sorry mofos started a whole another level when you began turning American cities into Mogadishu and Fallujah. Arresting people for self defense acts. Releasing felons on no bail. Attacking children for wearing a MAGA hat.
No it is not 2016 any more. People with brains aren’t talking their voting positions. People voting Biden/Heelsup are screaming from the rooftops.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:19 pm to HoustonTigerNKaty
We need to keep a few things in mind:
1. Just because an upset happened once, doesn't mean it's a lock to happen again. That's like saying that because Appalachian State beat Michigan once that it is somehow favored to do so again in the 2nd meeting.
2. In 2016, Trump had the "novelty" factor going for him - people wanted to vote for the fresh, unknown, interesting guy for change. Now that he's been incumbent president for four years, he no longer has that advantage. People who want "change" are likely to vote for Biden, not Trump (despite Biden still being an establishment guy.)
3. We forget how narrowly Trump won. 80,000 votes were all that separated him from victory and defeat (in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.) So even if the polls are just as wrong today as they were back then, it's certainly not as if Trump is going to win in a landslide. He may win in another extremely narrow outcome.
In other words, we shouldn't be feeling too good at the moment.
1. Just because an upset happened once, doesn't mean it's a lock to happen again. That's like saying that because Appalachian State beat Michigan once that it is somehow favored to do so again in the 2nd meeting.
2. In 2016, Trump had the "novelty" factor going for him - people wanted to vote for the fresh, unknown, interesting guy for change. Now that he's been incumbent president for four years, he no longer has that advantage. People who want "change" are likely to vote for Biden, not Trump (despite Biden still being an establishment guy.)
3. We forget how narrowly Trump won. 80,000 votes were all that separated him from victory and defeat (in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.) So even if the polls are just as wrong today as they were back then, it's certainly not as if Trump is going to win in a landslide. He may win in another extremely narrow outcome.
In other words, we shouldn't be feeling too good at the moment.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:33 pm to Music_City_Tiger
She didn't understand why she wasn't up by 50 points.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:36 pm to Brood211
quote:Good point. The enthusiasm chasm is wider this time. The "shy vote" is more prominent.
Bc everything is exactly the same about this election cycle with turnout expectations.
quote:Polling methodology has not changed from 2016 to now. Skews are identical. There is your relevance.
2016 has zero relevance to this years election turnout
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:39 pm to Frank Black
From Frank Black thread on Biden campaign event:
If Biden speaks in a forrest, does it make a noise?
If Biden speaks in a forrest, does it make a noise?
Posted on 10/11/20 at 2:43 pm to Frank Black
National polls only reflect the number of people, not the impact on the electoral college vote. Its all about getting to 270!!!!!!!
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:02 pm to PentagonTiger
quote:
This particular poll wasn’t wrong since Clinton won the popular vote. Now the specific state polls may have been wrong. But this also why the national poll doesn’t mean a damn, you have to look at swing state polls (PA, FL, OH, WI, MI, MN,etc.) since that is what will decide the election.
And that’s the problem. The Dim loons who are pushing for a popular vote over the electoral college believe CA, NY and IL should decide policy for the whole country.....insane.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:03 pm to PentagonTiger
quote:
This particular poll wasn’t wrong since Clinton won the popular vote.
So much fail here.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:15 pm to Frank Black
He isn’t as Orange as he used to be
Posted on 10/11/20 at 3:29 pm to Bass Tiger
Pretty sure they need the Pres, a super majority in congress, and a super majority in the senate to get that. Which will not happen
Posted on 10/11/20 at 4:34 pm to AnyonebutSteelers
quote:
That's like saying that because Appalachian State beat Michigan once that it is somehow favored to do so again in the 2nd meeting.
Trump always was Michigan that squeaked by App State THAT TIME, Crooked (and growing more crooked) Hillary was a HORRIBLE candidate, apparently the new Democrat standard as they assume PERMA-LOSER position again
quote:.
people wanted to vote for the fresh, unknown, interesting guy for change. Now that he's been incumbent president for four years, he no longer has that advantage.
Well you cant be a new brand after proving that you are the most accomplished, most pro American President in our lifetimes LIKE THIS TIME. Watch out, App State... Here comes the steamroller
quote:
So even if the polls are just as wrong today as they were back then, it's certainly not as if Trump is going to win in a landslide. He may win in another extremely narrow outcome.
He may win narrow but it is looking more and more landslide every day. The opponent is vastly worse than the last loser. This is Alabama versus Delaware State with 20-30 injuries
This post was edited on 10/11/20 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 10/11/20 at 5:51 pm to Frank Black
Orange Man said his internal polls show him doing better in all states compared to 2016.
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