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Swing state polls show Trump surging on Predictit
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:01 pm
Predictit has Dem chance to win in 2020 at roughly ~60% in the three big swing states (MI, WI, and PA). This is compared to 70% or so a month or two ago. Yet not much change in the same period on the national election odds (Republican sitting at 45-48% over that period). Hmm....
6
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:03 pm to GeneralLee
To the electoral experts on this board, is there any realistic path for him to win without taking any of those three?
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:05 pm to GeneralLee
What was the predict it poll in the swing states the day before the election in 2016?
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:05 pm to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
To the electoral experts on this board, is there any realistic path for him to win without taking any of those three?
Best backup options would be MN or NH & NV.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:06 pm to timdonaghyswhistle
Never thought I would see the day that Ohio was not considered a swing state for a Republican.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:06 pm to timdonaghyswhistle
Once he debates Bernie/Warren/Biden he may win every state except California, Washington and Oregon
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:06 pm to RebelExpress38
quote:
What was the predict it poll in the swing states the day before the election in 2016?
Depended on the moment of course, but before any results came back Trump was only at 15-25% to win in MI, WI, and PA.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:07 pm to saints5021
Ohio is solid Red these days.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:08 pm to RebelExpress38
quote:
What was the predict it poll in the swing states the day before the election in 2016?
Predictit was the only place that gave Trump a chance.
Wisconsin was the only one that was a total surprise. But PA was 45-55.
The stupid people are affecting the market now. Sharp money won't come in until the Dem nominee is official.
This post was edited on 11/20/19 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:09 pm to anc
I learned in 2016 to follow the money, not the polls. Predictit was all over a Trump victory. It sucks, but I relearned that lesson watching JBE rise in the last few weeks. People don't put their money on hopes and dreams.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:11 pm to GeneralLee
Depends on Dem nominee to some extent but generally speaking the most at risk Trump states are PA and MI and maybe FL depending on how many new minorities and felons can vote there
Most at risk Hillary states are MN, NH, ME and not much else.
Most at risk Hillary states are MN, NH, ME and not much else.
This post was edited on 11/20/19 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:21 pm to SirWinston
Nope, Biden is the only Dem who could potentially swing Pennsylvania back blue. And Biden ain't the "chosen one".
PA is going Red again in 2020.
PA is going Red again in 2020.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:27 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Depends on Dem nominee to some extent but generally speaking the most at risk Trump states are PA and MI and maybe FL depending on how many new minorities and felons can vote there
I would rank most at risk to least at risk:
- MI
- AZ
- WI
- PA
- FL
Arizona is going to be a tough slog given demographic changes there.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:31 pm to GeneralLee
Yah you’re right about AZ that was an oversight by me.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:33 pm to WaydownSouth
quote:
he may win every state except California, Washington and Oregon
I think MN may be lost forever, but it would be impressive AF if DJT took the one state that went for Mondale.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:33 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
Arizona is going to be a tough slog given snow birds there.
FIFY
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:34 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Ohio is solid Red these days.
It's a damn shame what happened in VA. OH/VA would be a hell of a firewall.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:34 pm to GeneralLee
I was in Minnesota last week and there were hundreds of Trump signs all over. I think Minnesota goes Red.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:41 pm to MrLSU
Trump should start the push to decentralize the government so that his predecessor has a chance in NOVA in 2024.
Posted on 11/20/19 at 2:56 pm to MrLSU
The GOP just got destroyed in MN in the midterms losing the governor’s race and 2 Senate elections by 10+%
This post was edited on 11/20/19 at 2:59 pm
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