re: Something Very Odd With The Florida COVID Numbers.

quote:

---

Something Very Odd With The Florida COVID Numbers.

---

What's odd is your data. What is your source?

I looked at about 5 different statistical sites. None of them have decreasing death trend and certainly not an exponential decrease.

I think the graph is BS. Of course the 5 I looked at probably pulls the same raw data. I would love to compare data.

I do expect this decreasing trend to come or at least I hope it will. It will be hard for media to ignore.

quote:

---

I saw DeSantis was supposedly down in the polls d/t his handling of CV19. So I decided to take a look and see how much longer the FL CV19 surge should last. Did a double-take when I saw the plummeting death trendline.

---

The EthicalSkeptic on Twitter had a thread on this a week ago. He's a data genius, and has been way out front the last 18 months on Covid reality -v- contrived/perception.

LINK

quote:

---

The EthicalSkeptic on Twitter had a thread on this a week ago.

---

Good find.

quote:

---

Ethical Skeptic ?@EthicalSkeptic
Aug 21

Interesting effect has evolved regarding this latest Covid surge. A reversal in the relationship between case and death arrivals. In Florida, deaths followed cases by 17/18 days in the past outbreaks.

Now on average for this 'Delta' wave, people are dying before they get Covid.

---

I don't agree with his data inferences/conclusions though:

quote:

---

So our 3 alternatives

1. Temporary effect from death reporting lag.
2. Exclusion of Covid cases not being counted as Covid, unless person dies.
3. ADE combined with 1 or 2 above

#1 is our default choice until the data shows otherwise.
3:00 PM · Aug 21, 2021

---

quote:

---

Looks like data manipulation.

---

This may be the answer:

quote:

---

Florida changed how it reports COVID statistics. The result? The pandemic appears to look less severe, with fewer recent deaths
By Cindy Krischner Goodman
Aug 13, 2021

Just as a highly contagious new delta variant sent Florida into a vicious COVID-19 surge, the state Department of Health changed the way it reports cases and deaths attributed to the virus.

The result: Florida no longer provides a real-time picture of how COVID is impacting the state.

The most dramatic example is that Florida’s daily death count had been trending upward since the end of June, but with the recent adjustments made by the state Department of Health, the number of deaths due to COVID appeared to decline dramatically over the past week. At least on paper.

Experts say the downward trend is not at all what’s really happening with COVID deaths in a state that continues to set records for the growing number of daily COVID cases and hospitalizations.

Deaths in Florida are increasing but still below the large numbers seen during the summer spikes in 2020, experts say. A COVID tracker created by The New York Times shows as of Aug. 10, Florida recorded a seven-day average of 141 deaths from the virus, a figure larger than 32 other states.

In contrast, according to the website maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention using the information provided by the state Department of Health, Florida’s seven-day average as of Aug. 10 is only about third of that — 58 deaths.

“For Florida to move to a new system of reporting is technically correct, but in actuality, it is problematic because it distorts data,” said Bill Ku, a data scientist and former researcher at Columbia University who now runs covid19odds.com. “Deaths are not going down, and a lot of people are going to jump to the wrong conclusion about how they should carry on with their life.”

LINK

---

They may have put deaths on the date the person died.

That pisses off reporters and public health people to no end.

When Missouri switched to that, a bunch of libs lost their minds.

In other words, if they harvest a death from a death certificate 6 months later, the death gets backdated to the actual date of the death rather than get dumped into current deaths. (You already know this.)

Op’s chart is out of date, Florida’s 7 day death average is over 1700 today. A new high. They reported 900 deaths Friday.