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re: Seth Keshel Election Data Dig Confirms 8.1M Phony Votes for Sleepy, Affirms Trump Win

Posted on 8/2/21 at 8:24 pm to
Posted by Little Trump
Florida
Member since Nov 2017
5817 posts
Posted on 8/2/21 at 8:24 pm to
What’s the story on NW Florida fraud???

I thought we were 75% republican and no cheating?
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 8/2/21 at 8:29 pm to
You Bolshevik shite weasels wouldn't know the truth if it walked up and kicked you in your election stealing asses.
Posted by timm6971463
oakdale la
Member since Mar 2008
4387 posts
Posted on 8/2/21 at 8:32 pm to
Idiots will believe any thing this board and republican voters confirm it I believe the last republican president who actually won his election was the ( wake up to sign the papers Reagon ) .
Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
77653 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:04 pm to

Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
40237 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:07 pm to
So wait. How is this different than Nate silvers model that estimates votes but is never exact? Other than he's calling the difference fraud instead of modelling inaccuracy?
Posted by hnds2th
Member since May 2019
3096 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:09 pm to
We all know what happened, but I have zero confidence anything will be done about it. I’m not sure how low America needs to sink before there is a revolution.
Posted by CelticDog
Member since Apr 2015
42867 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

Seth Keshel examined the final vote counts in all 50 states compared to the estimated numbers based on changing state dynamics and trends to come up with his estimated voter fraud in each state.



He's got a model that calculates the variance from assumptions to reality is all he's got there.





his theory is 81 million!
that cant be!
no. no.
Posted by GoldenSombrero
Member since Sep 2010
2900 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

Texas needs to audit.... They tried to flip TX hard



Every state needs an audit. IMO they've been setting the narrative about TX flipping for the past 2 elections. Rig the vote so it starts to appear closer, then when TX "turns blue" it won't be so obvious.

I'm not convinced this hasn't been happening in CA for some time now. Everyone now considers CA solid blue and doesn't bat an eye.
Posted by ShoeBang
Member since May 2012
22271 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

I can’t keep track


Sorry that you're stupid in that case. I know it is all bullshite but I can keep up nonetheless.
Posted by 2020_reVISION
Richmond,VA
Member since Dec 2020
3289 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

Asking for a friend.


Tell your friend F-U & to go F himself.

You two are gonna be busy.
Posted by roguetiger15
Member since Jan 2013
17563 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:18 pm to
Great job Lafayette.
Posted by sabanisarustedspoke
Member since Jan 2007
5869 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Idiots will believe any thing this board and republican voters confirm it I believe the last republican president who actually won his election was the ( wake up to sign the papers Reagon ) .



Of course you believe that, you're signing in from a federal prison. Should we call you Commish or Govna? Hack
Posted by Eurocat
Member since Apr 2004
17242 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:22 pm to
Will this information be part of the "conference" being oraganized by Mike Lindell.

Isn't that supposed to start soon now that I think of it?

Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:23 pm to
I said this in another thread...

...
The flaw in this analysis is that counties/parishes that have always been cheating show up as green like Orleans Parish. Parishes with a lot of suburban women likely went against historical trends in 2020, like St. Tammany (albeit still voting for Trump).

I do not believe St. Tammany cheated but they are showing up red. I do believe Orleans Parish cheated. They are showing up green and showing up green because there is cheating happening every election in Orleans Parish.

Nonetheless, St. Tammany and Louisiana still went bigly for Trump.
This post was edited on 8/3/21 at 1:32 pm
Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
77653 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

How is this different than Nate silvers model that estimates votes but is never exact?

Wait. Before we go further, are you saying agree that Silver's numbers are garbage?

Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
77653 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

I do not believe St. Tammany cheated but they are showing up red. I do believe Orleans Parish cheated. They are showing up green and showing up green because there is cheating happening every election in Orleans Parish.



Then it should ALL be audited. Every single instance of voter fraud that is allowed to go undiscovered disenfranchises a lawful, American voter.

That is unacceptable.
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
40237 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

Wait. Before we go further, are you saying agree that Silver's numbers are garbage?


I'm not saying they're garbage and don't mean anything. I'm just saying that any model is going to be off from reality as you can't predict the future perfectly.

You can approach a good estimation of the likely scenario(s) and how likely each one is through good data science practice.

You can even take a great model, overfit it to past periods and watch it be radically off at predicting things but line up great for historicals...
Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
77653 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

The flaw in this analysis is that counties/parishes that have always been cheating show up as green like Orleans Parish. Parishes with a lot of suburban women likely went against historical trends in 2020, like St. Tammany (albeit still voting for Trump).

I do not believe St. Tammany cheated but they are showing up red. I do believe Orleans Parish cheated. They are showing up green and showing up green because there is cheating happening every election in Orleans Parish.

Nonetheless, St. Tammany and Louisiana still went bigly for Trump.


From one of our TexAgs brethren:

quote:

I think the idea is they pilfer votes from republican-heavy areas, not enough to flip the county/parish but enough to affect the statewide totals


The same way they pad the heavy blue districts to scream #MuhPopularVote
Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
77653 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

You can approach a good estimation of the likely scenario(s) and how likely each one is through good data science practice.

You can even take a great model, overfit it to past periods and watch it be radically off at predicting things but line up great for historicals...


Like this?

Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
40237 posts
Posted on 8/3/21 at 1:49 pm to
So that's a great example of cherry picking facts with no context. If i showed up to present to an executive with that detail I wouldn't be employed long.

The data analysis should come together to tell a coherent story with underlying explainable facts.
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