Professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly.

September, 2016

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When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.

And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

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The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years.

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Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.

Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed.

Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running.

Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama's second term like the Affordable Care Act.

Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success.

And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.

One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a "false" if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats.

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So he went over the 13 keys and 6 of the 13 favored Trump. But I'll post the 13 keys, and it's actually several more in Trump's favor. Bold numbers are the keys he gave Trump.

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1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

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False. He was right about this one, the Dems got crushed.

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2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

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False. If I'm not mistaken, Bernie pushed Hillary to the brink and she only won the nomination because the DNC rigged it. Should be #2 key for Trump.

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3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

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False. #3 key for Trump.

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4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

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False. Stein and Johnson both siphoned votes. #4 key for Trump

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5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

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True. We were not in a recession, but....

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6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

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False. How the frick did he miss this one? Stagnant economy, record non-participation, no growth. Should be #5 key for Trump.

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7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

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False. This was counted, but should be #6 for Trump.

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8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

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False. Another missed one. BLM riots, mass cop killings, college riots against free speech, Antifa riots, libs attacking Trump supporters outside rallies, worst race relations in decades. How the frick did he not count this one? #7 for Trump?

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9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

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Very false. Not a smidgen. Plus Hillary's numerous scandals. Emails, Benghazi, Clinton Foundation,........... #8 for Trump.

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10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

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False. Ever hear of ISIS? Syria? #9 for Trump.

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11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

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False. This was correct, #10 for Trump.

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12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

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False. He got this one right. #11 for Trump.

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13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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I would say Trump is very charismatic, but that's up for debate. Could be #12 for Trump.

So, at least 11 keys for Trump, not 6. I think the professor is a huge lib and wasn't being 100% honest with himself.

WaPo