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re: Polymarket currently predicts a 64% chance of Democrat sweep
Posted on 10/26/26 at 7:04 am to cajunangelle
Posted on 10/26/26 at 7:04 am to cajunangelle
He nailed it:
It is much more effective, cost-wise, to make bad bets that skew the result. They don't care about losing the money. Cost of doing business.
quote:
The Dems are flooding prediction markets with bad bets to shift perceptions of reality.
It only would cost $200,000 to change Talarico’s odds from 50 to 67%
That’s a fraction of the 114 million spent on Talaricos campaign and more effective than road signs.
It is much more effective, cost-wise, to make bad bets that skew the result. They don't care about losing the money. Cost of doing business.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 7:25 am to Stinger_1066
And why aren't people taking the free money? You're being offered 2:1 odds on a coin flip and turning it down. They aren't hit only ones with access to these markets
Posted on 10/26/26 at 7:29 am to moontigr
It’s not bogus, everybody fricking hates you now, and for obvious reasons.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 7:35 am to Stinger_1066
The market manipulation thing doesn't pass the smell test. You'd have people taking advantage of the better odds.
On top of that, while these prediction markets have grown a lot the past few years, most people just know it by name. Just how many people out there do you think are going "polymarket is saying this, so I might just stay home."
What's much more likely is that it's just a reflection of skewed polls, which people use to make their bets.
On top of that, while these prediction markets have grown a lot the past few years, most people just know it by name. Just how many people out there do you think are going "polymarket is saying this, so I might just stay home."
What's much more likely is that it's just a reflection of skewed polls, which people use to make their bets.
Posted on 10/26/26 at 7:36 am to moontigr
quote:
Polymarket currently predicts
Betting markets do not predict
Posted on 10/26/26 at 7:38 am to Honkus
quote:
just need someone with more money than sense to tip the scales.
You don't think those people are out there? Tipping the scales with promises to recoup their money on the back end?
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