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re: Percentage wise, how confident are you that Trump wins the election?

Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:30 am to
Posted by boomtown143
Merica
Member since May 2019
6709 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:30 am to
Posted by TurkeyBaconLeg
Houston
Member since Jul 2018
1699 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:31 am to
100%
Posted by PUB
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2017
18284 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:31 am to
Agree - the ENTIRE SYSTEM is CORRUPT. US is a 3rd World Country run by a mafia of politicians, Wall Street and corporate. Taxpayers have been fleeced for over 30 Trillion since 2008-09 and nobody even notices.
Posted by RolltidePA
North Carolina
Member since Dec 2010
3483 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:33 am to
Looking at Biden’s campaign, I give Trump 10% at best. Team Biden knows he’s a lock through cheating and only need to have minimal exposure.

Have you ever seen a presidential campaign that’s done less? They know the media will do the campaigning for them and cheating will carry them across the line.
Posted by MeatCleaverWeaver
Member since Oct 2013
22175 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:33 am to
He’s going to win the EC in spite of massive fraud.
Posted by Folsom
Folsom
Member since Mar 2006
3308 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:34 am to
100
Posted by tigerbait3488
River Ridge
Member since Dec 2007
10470 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:34 am to
Guess you missed my Official Tigerdroppings Presidential Poll yesterday . Almost 700 posters believe Trump will win compared to 80 posters who believes Biden will win.
Posted by armtackledawg
Member since Aug 2017
11956 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:36 am to
20%. I think we are going to be disappointed.
Posted by The Melt
Metairie
Member since Apr 2018
984 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:37 am to
quote:

Not very - 10 million “Mail in ballots” have already been cast with a proven rate (based upon past major elections using this) of a 20-40% “error” rate and no republican winners

Hmmm

That’s upwards of a 4 million vote swing already and we are 2 weeks from the election. To put that in perspective - the entire USA election in 2016 had a 2.9 million vote difference


I agree that the flood of mail-in ballots is bullshite but aren't most of the ballots in strongly held blue states anyway? Who cares about the popular vote. Only a small number of toss-up states have mass, unsolicited mail-in ballots, correct? I'm seriously asking, I don't know the answer. And I thought in the states that you have to request a ballot, republicans are looking good in new voter registration and the number of ballots they requested. Aren't we really only looking at PA and another state that it would effect and some of the court rulings may actually invalidate many of the democrat mail-in ballots (need secrecy envelope and due dates)?
Posted by BayBengal9
Bay St. Louis, MS
Member since Nov 2019
4171 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:45 am to
quote:

75%

Reserving 25% for fraud


This is the correct answer.
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
67157 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:46 am to
90%
Posted by Hamma1122
Member since Sep 2016
19847 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:48 am to
75%. Nervous about the rust belt and AZ
Posted by BamaAggiemom
Member since Aug 2019
387 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 7:55 am to
I think I'm 50/50 now too.

I was living in California the past 4 years. There's so much TDS there it's amazing.
Posted by BayBengal9
Bay St. Louis, MS
Member since Nov 2019
4171 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:07 am to
quote:

Have you ever seen a presidential campaign that’s done less?


They CANNOT do any more. 1 public speech every 3 days is all Biden has left in him. You're right about the media campaigning for him, but don't take his lack of campaign time as a strength when he is literally not capable of campaigning full time with the shape he's in.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13104 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:11 am to
I think Trump has ~248 EV's pretty much locked down. See picture below. He needs 21 EV's from the 79 remaining toss-up states to get to a 269-269 tie that he would win in the House. Out of those 79 EV's, I think his odds (best to worst) are:
-AZ (11 EV's)
- WI (10)
- PA (20)
- MN (10)
- MI (16)
-NE-2 (1)
- NV (6)
- NH (4)


This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 8:13 am
Posted by Jeb Busch Lite
Member since Apr 2016
1860 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:21 am to
Good breakdown. I think he gets at least 2 of those swing states. 3 is likely
Posted by BayBengal9
Bay St. Louis, MS
Member since Nov 2019
4171 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:24 am to
Excellent analysis.
Posted by Paluka
One State Over
Member since Dec 2010
10763 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:27 am to
99% sure he wins.

Trump will win in a landslide. This election reminds me of Uncle Ron’s win for his second term.
Posted by MizzouBS
Missouri
Member since Dec 2014
5850 posts
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:43 am to
60%

95% of voters have already decided who they are voting for. The last 5% are probably seniors and Hispanics.

If Biden wins both that could change the outcome. If Trump wins both it won’t be that close

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