re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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might want to start doing less talking and having less fancy conferences in Europe and getting a boat."

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JUST IN: Iran just pulled a thirty-year-old empty supertanker out of retirement and began towing it toward Kharg Island. She is moving so slowly that a voyage that should take a day and a half is taking four days.

Her name is NASHA. IMO 9079107. Built 1996. A two-million-barrel very large crude carrier that has been anchored empty off Kharg for years. TankerTrackers confirmed her reactivation yesterday. Gulf News, Iran International, and Fox News all picked it up within hours.

The reason she is moving at all is that Iran is running out of places to put the oil.

Kharg Island handles roughly ninety percent of Iran’s crude exports. Its onshore tanks had about thirteen million barrels of spare capacity when the US blockade began on April 13. Net inflow since has been running at one million to one point one million barrels per day because exports have collapsed to single digits of vessels while upstream production continues. The math is mechanical. Roughly twelve days of spare capacity. The calendar says that window closes this week.

NASHA is not a strategy. NASHA is what you do when you have run out of strategy.

A two-million-barrel floating storage vessel buys Iran approximately forty-eight hours of continued upstream production. After that, either the wells get shut in or the crude goes somewhere else. The parallel options being pursued, ship-to-ship transfers in the Riau Archipelago, AIS-dark transits, sanctioned VLCCs returning home through the blockade line, are not enough. Lloyd’s List Intelligence has tracked roughly twenty-six Iran-linked vessels evading since April 13. That cannot absorb a million barrels a day.

The wells will shut in. The question is which wells, for how long, and whether they come back.

The Asmari and Bangestan carbonate formations that sit under most of Iran’s giant southern fields are high-permeability, strong-water-drive systems. The Society of Petroleum Engineers literature on this specific reservoir class is unambiguous. Remove continuous pressure support for a prolonged shut-in and four damage mechanisms activate simultaneously: water coning upward through the fracture network, fines migration into pore throats, formation compaction under increased effective stress, and clay swelling under altered salinity and pH. The damage is not theoretical. It is documented. And it is measured in months to years of recoverable production capacity, not days.

Maleki and Gordon estimate three hundred to five hundred thousand barrels per day of permanent capacity loss if the current shut-in trajectory completes. That is a directional estimate, not a lab measurement, but the direction is not in dispute.

NASHA is the archaeological signature of the clock.

When a country with the world’s third-largest oil reserves reactivates a thirty-year-old retired tanker to float on top of its main export terminal and buy forty-eight hours of time, the institutional systems designed to absorb shocks have already failed. The insurance market, the shadow fleet, the diplomatic channels, and the reservoir physics are all converging on the same conclusion at different speeds, and NASHA is the one that shows up on satellite.

The market is pricing a ceasefire.

The Pentagon is pricing six months of mine clearance.

Iran just pulled a corpse out of the Persian Gulf and asked it to buy two days.

That is not how a reversible crisis looks. That is how a regime tells you, operationally, that it has run out of options between the blockade and the shut-in. The reservoir does not negotiate.

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Tehran’s police chief admits he hid and slept in his car at night during the war to avoid U.S.-Israeli drone strikes.

Ahmad Reza Radan, one of the regime’s most hated officials, says, “We learned to treat every vehicle as a bunker… I spent nights in my car or on the street. The enemy tried hard to find me but couldn’t.”

All these mass killings expose what they really are — scared cowards when faced with a real threat.

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Foreign Minister Araghchi is also set to visit Moscow, Russia

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Just as I predicted yesterday…. MSM will falsely claim the Secretary of the Navy was fired because of Battleships.

And the NYTimes is actually worse than I thought. Let me explain….

The mainstream media will make this about the ships because the defense “experts” never want more hulls. They want money flowing into consulting fees, AI “solutions,” and think tank white papers. Steel produces nothing for the Beltway class. A flight deck you can launch F-35s off of does not generate PowerPoints.

But the NYTimes is running an even more sinister play.

Throughout the Biden administration, and later during DOGE’s audit work, I translated every major spending bill into a unit every American can actually visualize: one nuclear aircraft carrier.

Nuclear supercarrier cost: $15 billion.

Biden’s BEAD rural broadband program, which connected zero homes to the internet: $42.5 billion, or roughly three carriers.

Pete Buttigieg’s infrastructure package: $1.1 trillion, or seventy three carriers.

Total DOGE savings to date: $215 billion, or fourteen carriers.

Known Somali-linked fraud in Minnesota, per federal prosecutors: $18 billion, or one carrier plus an Arleigh Burke destroyer.

Why do I keep doing this?

Because for the past two decades the NYTimes has run the same story on loop: the military is the reason for America’s skyrocketing national debt.

That is a psyop. It conditions Americans to believe that steel and sailors, not social programs and grift, are what is bankrupting the country.

Human beings are not wired to understand $15 billion. The mind goes blank at that scale. But every American, left or right, understands the sheer weight and menace of a nuclear aircraft carrier. It is the most visible, most photogenic instrument of state power on earth.

So the NYTimes runs the obvious play.

Paint the carrier as expensive. Pile on delays and cost overruns. Quote an anonymous Pentagon source worrying about bloat. Then anchor the defense budget to “discretionary spending,” a small slice of the real pie, and express it as a percentage of that smaller number.

The Pentagon instantly looks like the whale in the room.

But Medicare alone, roughly $1 trillion in 2025, already eclipses the entire defense budget. Add Medicaid and ACA subsidies and federal health spending hits $1.8 trillion, more than double defense. None of those programs are labeled “discretionary,” so by NYTimes accounting, they “don’t count.”

This is a magic act. The NYTimes holds a shiny capital ship up in one hand to keep your eyes off the social programs bankrupting the country in the other.

Once you see the trick, you cannot unsee it. Every time the NYTimes runs a carrier or battleship exposé, ask one question: what is on the page they did not write?

Nine times out of ten, the answer is sitting just outside the “discretionary” column, quietly metastasizing, while a Ford class carrier gets blamed for the deficit.

America is not going broke building warships. Warships are one time expenses that last decades and are a tiny fraction of the total annual budget.

America is going broke pretending the ledgers that matter do not exist, while a national newspaper gets paid to keep the audience looking the other way.

That’s why they hate battleships. That’s why they tell you they are ridiculous and antiquated warships that are a waste of money. To make you think THIS is the reason why the nation is $39T in debt.

And the best part? Their psyop works on both sides of the aisle… on liberals who hate the military and conservatives who hate federal spending.

Battleships are not a waste of money. All the many fraudulent programs that cost more annually than a single carrier are.

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From the @nytimes: “Mr. Phelan recently suggested to Mr. Trump that the Navy might have to rely on European shipyards to deliver the battleships on the ambitious timeline Mr. Trump was demanding, senior military and administration officials said. Mr. Trump rejected the suggestion.”

Advocating for outsourcing U.S. warship production abroad is a career ending opportunity.

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Mr. Phelan recently suggested to Mr. Trump that the Navy might have to rely on European shipyards to deliver the battleships

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