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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 4/23/26 at 8:21 pm to TheBoo
Posted on 4/23/26 at 8:21 pm to TheBoo
quote:
What
The US produces over 9 million BPD of actual crude oil. Another 4 million BPD is actually condensate legally turned into oil due Congress in the 1970s to ban its export. It takes more energy and a larger crude unit to refine. It's makes more gas than a pot of beans. A refinery capable of say 100,000 BPD capacity can only do 70,000 BPD of this weak stuff. That puts the refinery into bankruptcy
1
Posted on 4/23/26 at 8:24 pm to Trevaylin
quote:
NGL's are not used for blending crude stuff. Ethane, propane, butane , naphtha are far to valuable as cracker feedstock for ethylene/propylene derivatives.
I well know this but when Trump says we are producing 20 million BPD he's including NGL's. The Pentanes plus can be used in an isomerizer to make gasoline after blending with Straight run gasoline.
Posted on 4/23/26 at 8:30 pm to CitizenK
Maybe he’s including all the ethanol the great people of Iowa have volunteered to produce.
Posted on 4/23/26 at 8:30 pm to CitizenK
quote:
The US produces over 9 million BPD of actual crude oil. Another 4 million BPD is actually condensate legally turned into oil due Congress in the 1970s to ban its export. It takes more energy and a larger crude unit to refine. It's makes more gas than a pot of beans. A refinery capable of say 100,000 BPD capacity can only do 70,000 BPD of this weak stuff. That puts the refinery into bankruptcy
I was referring to you stating condensate isn’t refined by itself.
This post was edited on 4/23/26 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 4/23/26 at 8:35 pm to TheBoo
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:01 pm to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:14 pm to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:18 pm to TheBoo
quote:
I was referring to you stating condensate isn’t refined by itself.
it isn't. I has to be pre-refined in a condensates splitter. Valero installed these in Corpus and in Mereaux, Marathon installed one in the midwest. Exxon had to install giant one at Beaumont. Simplified it is its own simple refinery which takes all the light ends out first, leaving a refinable bottoms reduced to actual crude oil. BP/KinderMorgan tried to commericalized theirs to sell the products in Houston but wasn't a commercial success. Maybe they have cranked it up again but it sat there for several years idle
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:33 pm to BayouBengal51
The cease fire allowed Iran to dig open access to their nuclear facilities.
China has sent high end tunneling machines. They buy tremendous amounts of oil from Iran. They use the Chinese dollar. The straight of Hurmuz is their life line for oil. China has been purchasing oil from Iran marked from other countries for 10 years in preparation for this scenario.
China is 10 years ahead of the USA on this issue.
Iran by itself would have had to capitulate weeks ago. All they have is the straight of Hormuz. Chinas' oil goes thru the straight of Hormuz.
China is playing the long game with Russia to prevent USA from winning the Iran confrontation.
A stalemate without a win is what China wants.
China has sent high end tunneling machines. They buy tremendous amounts of oil from Iran. They use the Chinese dollar. The straight of Hurmuz is their life line for oil. China has been purchasing oil from Iran marked from other countries for 10 years in preparation for this scenario.
China is 10 years ahead of the USA on this issue.
Iran by itself would have had to capitulate weeks ago. All they have is the straight of Hormuz. Chinas' oil goes thru the straight of Hormuz.
China is playing the long game with Russia to prevent USA from winning the Iran confrontation.
A stalemate without a win is what China wants.
This post was edited on 4/23/26 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:39 pm to 1loyalbamafan
China with help from Russia is trying to delete the SWIFT money monopoly along with America's strangle hold on the oil dollar.
China has one of the worlds highest IQ.s. It's sad but true. They don't do DEI.
China has one of the worlds highest IQ.s. It's sad but true. They don't do DEI.
This post was edited on 4/23/26 at 9:42 pm
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:44 pm to CitizenK
Ok so they do refine it.
ETA: don’t leave out Enterprise.
ETA: don’t leave out Enterprise.
This post was edited on 4/23/26 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:44 pm to 1loyalbamafan
You are aware the Iranian pumps will be stopping production in a few weeks and could end that supply for decades. Playing the long game doesn’t work.
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:44 pm to 1loyalbamafan
Look at this crayon eater loving the Chinese talking points.
Posted on 4/23/26 at 10:08 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/23/26 at 10:09 pm to TheBoo
quote:
ETA: don’t leave out Enterprise.
Not a crude oil refiner also you don't know much about refining.
This post was edited on 4/23/26 at 11:15 pm
Posted on 4/23/26 at 10:42 pm to hawgfaninc
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
If you’d told me a few years ago this is where we’d be on Iran, I’d have said you were high:
1. Nuke program set back years. Enrichment and reprocessing gutted, weaponization sites destroyed, Fordow inoperable, Natanz in ruins, a generation of senior nuclear scientists eliminated.
2. Ballistic missile program crippled. Monthly production down from 100 to near zero. Roughly half the regime’s missiles and launchers destroyed. The IRGC Aerospace Force commander who ran the missile enterprise dead.
3. Air defenses devastated. American and Israeli airpower dominating Iranian skies, with strike aircraft operating over the country with near impunity.
4. Full economic warfare. Not just OFAC sanctions anymore, but military pressure layered on top: naval blockade, near-zero oil exports, choked imports, wrecked steel and petrochemical sectors, triple-digit inflation, and a currency that is effectively worthless.
5. Regime decapitation. Khamenei dead. Larijani dead. Hundreds of senior IRGC, intelligence, military, and Basij commanders dead including the IRGC commander-in-chief, the armed forces chief of staff, and the Aerospace Force commander. Mojtaba Khamenei inheriting a hollowed-out regime with no supreme authority and a gutted command structure.
6. The region turning on Tehran. Gulf states shutting down the sanctions-busting, money-laundering, and financial escape routes the regime has relied on for years. No Arab capital willing to throw Iran a lifeline. China and Russia providing limited support.
7. Proxy network shattered. Hezbollah and Hamas heavily degraded. Houthi political leadership taking direct Israeli strikes. The “Axis of Resistance” and “ring of fire” are now more slogans than real threats.
8. Syrian corridor severed. Assad is gone. The new government in Damascus is actively blocking Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah: arresting smugglers and publicly declaring Syria will no longer serve as a transit corridor for Tehran’s terrorists. The land bridge to the Mediterranean that took decades to build is effectively closed.
9. Lebanon pivoting west. With Hezbollah battered and resupply choked, Israel and Lebanon have opened direct peace talks for the first time since 1983, aimed at a permanent agreement and Hezbollah’s disarmament. Beirut now asserting that the Lebanese armed forces alone are responsible for national defense. This is a direct repudiation of Hezbollah’s “resistance” claim. TBD.
10. Deterrence exposed as a bluff. Four direct attacks on Israel — April 2024, October 2024, June 2025, March 2026 — failed to impose strategic cost and instead triggered heavy retaliation. Iran couldn’t even use Syria as a launchpad.
11.Economy hollowed out from within. Power shortages, water crises, factory shutdowns, pension unrest, and mass protests. Nationwide demonstrations erupted in December 2025 after a year of economic freefall, with bazaaris, oil workers, and truckers, the regime’s traditional support base, joining strikes across all 31 provinces. Running out of oil storage space. Fuel shortages. The worst crisis since 1979.
12. Scientific and technical brain drain. Beyond the nuclear experts, Iran has lost a generation of irreplaceable expertise in missile design, centrifuge engineering, and weapons development. The survivors are harder to recruit and easier to deter.
13. Naval power decimated. The regular navy shattered, IRGC navy taking growing losses as CENTCOM moves to reopen Hormuz.
And against all of this: the regime forced to play its Hormuz card at its weakest possible moment when the U.S. has options instead of when we didn’t: namely, Tehran with nuclear-armed ICBMs, 10,000 ballistic missiles, a Chinese- and Russian-built military, hundreds of thousands of attack drones, a fully operational terror network, and hundreds of billions of dollars to harden its economy.
That’s the strategic picture. It’s extraordinary. Much more to do but I can’t comprehend how much has been achieved.
quote:
Still many challenges ahead:
1. Battle of Hormuz
2. Red Sea/Houthis
3. Enriched material
4. PickAxe Mountain
5. Internal repression of Iranians
6. Reconstitution — nuclear, missile, proxies
7. American political calendar including POTUS 2029 who gives up
8. Negotiations leading to fatally flawed deal.
9. Success leads us to abandon Iranians.
10. Replacing depleted war materials
Posted on 4/23/26 at 11:12 pm to 1loyalbamafan
quote:
China has sent high end tunneling machines. They buy tremendous amounts of oil from Iran. They use the Chinese dollar. The straight of Hurmuz is their life line for oil. China has been purchasing oil from Iran marked from other countries for 10 years in preparation for this scenario.
China is 10 years ahead of the USA on this issue.
Iran by itself would have had to capitulate weeks ago. All they have is the straight of Hormuz. Chinas' oil goes thru the straight of Hormuz.
Slow down on the propaganda, China has a 3 month oil supply in reserve, the US has 4.5 and pump our own oil.
They won't be buying oil from Iran or Venezuela with the yuan (Chinese dollar, and you are acting like an expert), anymore. China is not getting oil from Iran currently. Quit getting your propaganda from tik tok
Posted on 4/23/26 at 11:34 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Not a crude oil refiner also you don't know much about refining.
They refine NGL into feedstock and LPG…
Posted on 4/23/26 at 11:47 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Look at this crayon eater loving the Chinese talking points.
I haven't posted much in this thread. You have to go down the rabbit hole.
If you think I'm for the enemy you're wrong.
And if it wasn't for the virus...and other things ,,,or just go back to Trump and the Iran Nucellar Deal.....aND WHAT IT MEANT FOR cHINA.
Posted on 4/24/26 at 12:00 am to phaz
quote:
They won't be buying oil from Iran or Venezuela with the yuan (Chinese dollar, and you are acting like an expert), anymore. China is not getting oil from Iran currently. Quit getting your propaganda from tik tok
I hope you are correct.
I never thought I'd be called a Chin shill.
Iran has a lower IQ than us . They couldn't survive without China.
The Dems gave them money and uranium. Until we get on the same page it's gonna be tough.
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