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Posted on 4/8/26 at 5:34 pm to Tigerstark
quote:
To be fair the Iranians would not respond when we asked what address to fed ex the document to with the Israelis also listening.
Imagine the look if they were told they need to Docusign with an approved device.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 6:17 pm to Tigerdad2001
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I do not want to sell false hope. I just want to lay out the puzzle pieces the way they look from here.
I do not think this ceasefire is a ceasefire. I think it is a Trojan horse.
Trump spent Monday, more than once and in different ways, talking about Iranians fearing the bombing would stop and they would be abandoned with the regime. Nobody dragged that out of him. He volunteered it. Then before any ceasefire even existed, he said that if one happened, Iranians should come to the streets. Then he suddenly started talking about weapons meant for Iranians that were stolen. Maybe true, maybe not. But none of that sounds random.
Then look at the board. Right in the middle of the deadline drama, while Trump was threatening infrastructure, the Crown Prince called on the military. In the last 24 hours before the pause, bridges, rail lines, roads, oil, and power nodes were hit. That did not look like punishment for punishment’s sake. It looked like shaping the board, slowing transfers, choking movement, and complicating the regime’s ability to move suppression forces.
Now Ghalibaf is publicly saying even their own so called workable 10 point framework was violated before talks began, Lebanon, a drone over Lar in Fars, and Iran’s claimed right to enrichment. That tells me Tehran itself did not read this as a clean peace landing. It read it as a contested pause before the next fight.
And the core issue is still sitting there. The 440 kilos of uranium enriched to 60 percent are still part of the story, still enough in principle to become bombs if pushed further.
So what exactly is “resolved” here.
And please spare me the fantasy of a new regime. What fricking new regime. The four main names have not changed. Khamenei became Khamenei Junior, and the rest are still the same bastards as before, Pezeshkian, Qalibaf, Ejei.
Then there is the rescue mission, 48 hours of activity deep inside Iran, deception, jamming, roads hit, aircraft destroyed. And the assassination pattern. Trump pushed the line that around 50 high level figures were gone. Public names are already out there, but I would bet a large part of the real list is still being held back.
So no, I do not think this means the war is over. I think it means a lot is happening behind the curtain. This pause serves Washington and Jerusalem more than it serves the terrorist Islamic Regime occupying Iran, buys time, steadies markets, preserves escalation control, and prepares the next phase.
Payandeh Iran
Javid Shah
Posted on 4/8/26 at 6:57 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:09 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:43 pm to msutiger
quote:
And he has stated Israel won’t be putting boots on the ground so the goyim will need to retrieve it
You're doing a great job. Even better if you can post that on a few regime twitter accounts. Telll them no way Israel would ever put people on the ground in Iran, so focus on the US.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:45 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:46 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:48 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:49 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:51 pm to hawgfaninc
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Let me take you through a thought experiment about what “the Iranian regime” actually is right now.
Imagine a country like Iran, where familial and tribal loyalties run in parallel to the centralized authority. A place where patronage is built into the system. The US and Israel have decimated the leadership of both the Supreme Ruler and his clerics as well as the IRGC command. Factor in the mosaic strategy of spreading the IRGC out across all 31 provinces, plus constant attacks and degradation of Iranian infrastructure used by the IRGC: communication, roads, bases.
In such a world the issue of succession becomes a problem, even if the regime thought they had prepared for it. New positions of authority are not being delegated from above, but rather are being assumed based on some hierarchy or org structure that may or may not still exist one month into the war.
The IRGC leadership is not nearly as ideologically aligned as maybe the mullahs or the rank and file are. We are seeing reports of the relatives of high level IRGC living lavish lifestyles in the United States. We also know that the IRGC operates like a sort of organized crime syndicate within Iran, whereby they control large parts of the economy. Leadership is continuing to be killed on a near daily basis.
It does not appear that the mullahs are even in charge anymore. The IRGC imposed the new supreme leader, even though all accounts say that he is badly injured and not conscious. There is probably some sort of coup whereby the IRGC has assumed power and decision-making without announcing it publicly. And there are reports of the president complaining that he has no real power and that the IRGC are pulling the strings.
Now we get to the final point where it’s not even entirely clear who is negotiating on behalf of Iran.
The actual situation within Iran in terms of their leadership is most likely something resembling this: authority is no longer flowing downward from Tehran. It is being claimed locally by surviving provincial commanders, rival IRGC factions, and patronage networks. Iran has become a loose confederation of armed power centers held together by shared hatred of the US and Israel, residual revolutionary ideology, and the IRGC’s economic mafia networks…but those same networks are also pulling in opposite directions.
Logical conclusions from all this: ceasefires and diplomatic agreements become extremely fragile because the people signing them may not actually control the people with the missiles and drones (as we saw with the Kuwait strikes hours after the truce announcement). Further leadership killings will likely create even more autonomous warlords rather than weaken the resistance. Negotiating any lasting deal has become incredibly difficult because there is no longer one single lever of control. The regime is effectively fighting two wars at once…externally against the US and Israel, and internally against itself.
That is likely what “the Iranian regime” actually is right now…and the US/Israel know this reality full well. They see and hear everything that’s happening.
And what we, as the public, know is almost entirely controlled by what the US, Israel, and “Iranian regime” is telling us publicly. There is no independent reporting from inside Iran. The fog of war is nearly absolute and we are being told only a small part of what is actually going on. But if you look closely and deep enough, you’ll find enough crumbs to support (at least partially) the logical conclusions of this thought experiment.
What would I be trying to do if I were Trump? Divide and Conquer is the name of the game. So take everything that you hear and see with a grain of salt…there’s lots of smoke and mirrors.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:51 pm to hawgfaninc
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I have just spoken with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
I expressed France’s full solidarity in the face of the indiscriminate strikes carried out by Israel in Lebanon today, which resulted in a very high number of civilian casualties. We condemn these strikes in the strongest possible terms.
They pose a direct threat to the sustainability of the ceasefire that has just been reached. Lebanon must be fully covered by it.
I reiterated the need to preserve Lebanon’s territorial integrity and France’s determination to support the efforts of the Lebanese authorities to uphold the country’s sovereignty and implement the Hezbollah disarmament plan.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:52 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:53 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:55 pm to hawgfaninc
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THE U.S. MILITARY SAYS “WE’RE NOT GOING ANYWHERE” — BRIDGE AND POWER PLANT DAY IS STILL ON THE TABLE
IRAN, SHOW US YOU’RE NOT A TERRORIST… OR WE STRIKE AGAIN
NO URANIUM. NO STRAIT. NO NEGOTIATING.
JD VANCE SAYS THEY BETTER HAVE GOOD TRANSLATORS IN PAKISTAN… THIS IS THEIR LAST CHANCE… AND WE’RE HOLDING ALL THE CARDS
THIS ISN’T OVER. NOT EVEN CLOSE
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:57 pm to hawgfaninc
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The ceasefire and negotiations are tearing through the Islamic Republic’s own base.
What was once controlled messaging has turned openly hostile, with rallies now filled with vitriolic attacks on regime figures.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who is leading talks with the U.S., is being openly insulted and denounced by regime supporters.
He’s being called a “bastard” and a “freeloader” exposing deep fractures within the regime’s core.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:59 pm to rmnldr
Here’s the rub about your post from Nawal
It only matters what Trump believes in this instance and that’s the truth of it. You can quote all the Pakistani’s you want and it means shite.
It only matters what Trump believes in this instance and that’s the truth of it. You can quote all the Pakistani’s you want and it means shite.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 7:59 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/8/26 at 8:09 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
It only matters what Trump believes in this instance and that’s the truth of it. You can quote all the Pakistani’s you want and it means shite.
It kind of does matter in a ceasefire agreement if half of the parties involved believe one thing and the other half another, hence the term......"agreement".
It particularly matters if the one big "win" from that agreement immediately goes out the window because of the disagreement.
Either Pakistan was entrusted to be the mediator and architect of this......"agreement" or it wasn't. Being that this whole clusterfrick started with the Paki PM's tweet, it does matter.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 8:09 pm to hawgfaninc
quote:
Divide and Conquer is the name of the game.
Control What matters, Banking, Energy, communications etc. The IRGC can race camels in northern Iran.
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