re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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Trump's Iran weekly cycle:
Monday: We're about to have a deal, negotiating with great people in the new leadership.
Tuesday: We might just pull out, who cares about this shite lol.
Wednesday: Our allies in the region have been great, but they need to pay us more.
Thursday: Wow Iran said im stinky, looks like we'll be here another few weeks, but we want to settle.
Friday: Iran needs to be blown off the face of the earth.
Saturday: We are demolishing them, they are the most evil regime imaginable, they are never getting a nuclear weapon and we are crushing their souls.
Sunday: We're talking to some people who haven't died yet, and they've been great.

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Scott Jennings lays out his predictions for what President Trump will announce in tomorrow night’s address to the nation on Iran.

What happens over the next 2–3 weeks could be the most critical phase of the entire conflict.

JENNINGS: “I think tomorrow night, based on what I’m hearing, we’re going to get a couple of things from the president.”

“Probably a recitation of how he sees the last 4 or 5 weeks, the military successes we’ve had, the fact that we’ve obliterated their navy, we’ve obliterated most of their missile and drone capacity, and the fact that we did take out the previous regime.”

“And now we’re talking to new people that I think the president and the administration believe are somewhat more willing to have a reasonable conversation.”

“I also believe we’re probably going to hear how he sees the next 2 to 3 weeks, when we will wrap up what he sees as our military objectives and hopefully, you know, bring our large scale operations to a conclusion in a way that meets all the objectives...”

“The nuclear stuff, the missiles, the navy, the exporting of terror and also leaves us in a position on the nuclear piece to know that not only have we taken away their ability to do it, but they won’t be developing it any further.”

“That’s what I want to hear and I hope that’s what he’s able to say.”

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Spent all day in DC talking to Navy and military sources. My Hormuz Hypothesis stands: the Navy appears to be in no rush to reopen the strait.

The question remains: what is this administration trying to leverage?

Nobody I talked to is even willing to discuss that until European politicians and media stop calling Americans war criminals and monsters.

And guess what? Even most liberals I talk to are getting tired of it.

The only people pleased with the anti-American rhetoric vomiting out of Europe are the far left and a large segment of PhDs in academia and think tanks.

I have no idea when the strait will reopen. But if the price is a modicum of cooperation and respect for everything America has done for decades to keep Europe safe, the strait could stay closed for months, or turned into a toll booth for years, because the majority of Americans…. and the vast majority of Trump administration officials I’ve talked with… seem fed up with their arrogance.

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Let's unpack this..

What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?

What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?

I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.

We need to go back to the drawing boards.

That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical with my personal thoughts.

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