re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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Armin Assadi: "If you're praying to be bombed, that's not hope — that's desperation!"

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Although I have studied wars and the conduct of modern conflict almost continuously for quite many years, the sudden re-emergence of Kharg Island as a potential military target has brought back vivid memories of the long periods I spent studying (and traveling to) that island—its strategic significance, its immense oil wealth, and its strengths and vulnerabilities. I first examined Kharg in depth while writing about the history of Iran-Iraq War and then my MA dissertation in War Studies (supervised by Prof Philip Sabin) at KCL’s @warstudies (2006), where I analyzed Iraq’s campaign to destroy the island during that war. Later, the subject became central again during my PhD research (supervised by Prof Oliver Bast) at the Uni of Manchester’s @uomhums (2010), where I continued examining the strategic role and adaptability of Iran’s energy infrastructures as strategic chokepoints in modern warfare. Kharg is not just another piece of geography in the Persian Gulf; it is the primary gateway for Iranian oil exports and therefore one of the country’s most important economic centers of gravity. During the 1980-88 war Iraq attempted hundreds of strikes against the island and the tankers approaching it in the hope of bankrupting Iran and forcing Tehran to end the war. The campaign caused damage and much disruption but ultimately failed because Iran adapted—repairing facilities quickly, shifting exports through shuttle tankers, and improvising alternative loading points. That experience demonstrated both the power and the limits of what might be called energy-infrastructure warfare.

Today the strategic logic surrounding Kharg has resurfaced almost unchanged, but under far riskier technological conditions. The recent U.S. strikes against military installations on the island—while deliberately avoiding the oil infrastructure—signal a calibrated warning: if the Islamic regime continues interfering with freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the next targets could include the island’s oil export system itself. Kharg still handles the overwhelming majority of Iran’s crude exports, making it a uniquely powerful economic pressure point despite Tehran’s attempts to build resilience by expanding storage capacity elsewhere and developing alternative outlets such as SPMs and the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman, which has only recently begun loading tankers again at relatively modest levels. Destroying or disabling Kharg could therefore remove most Iranian oil exports from the market overnight and deprive the Iranian state of critical revenue (after it sells its existing 200 mb on floating storage), but such an attack would also carry significant risks. The island contains enormous oil storage tanks, pipelines, and loading facilities built over decades, and a large-scale strike on these structures—unless extremely selective and surgical—could ignite massive fires or trigger an environmental disaster in the Persian Gulf. The regime in Iran now faces a stark strategic choice: de-escalate and allow shipping through Hormuz to resume unhindered, or continue confronting maritime traffic and risk the destruction of its most important energy lifeline, this time at the hands of the most powerful military power in the world.

@POTUS
@SecWar
@CENTCOM

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Shanaka Anslem Perera

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As I said days ago. The European Navies are too weak and we just don’t have enough destroyers out of maintenance.

The only way @SecScottBessent’s “International Naval Coalition” will work is if we recruit Japan and South Korea

But that would leave a huge imbalance between our allies and China.

Could maybe work if China sends warships too. China might not even have to participate directly. They just need to be out of East Asia temporarily so a relative balance is maintained.

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Internationalize the Reopening of Hormuz!

Good news from President Trump today, and expected given the importance to many of America’ allies of petroleum flows thru the Straits of Hormuz.

"Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated," President Trump added.

Not sure about China being included given their behavior recently and track record in the Red Sea and counter piracy operations. France is already sending a flotilla and hopefully soon Japan sends mine sweepers. History is repeating from the early 90s…

Japan has over the years loosened interpretations of its pacifist constitution, such that if Iran’s threat to its energy deemed a national danger it can act - sending minesweepers especially as the direct threat from Iran’s military eliminated becomes more politically viable. Memories still linger of Japan’s tardy response in Gulf War One.

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This is exactly what we did in Syria for that regime change.

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I think Trump adding Chyna was tactical and political.

If they don’t send any then it shows them as weak and unable to exert any power forward.

If they do it helps keep balance in Asia so others can send ships. And would need to work with USA to a degree since we are in charge of the war efforts.

He puts them in a tough spot by adding them.

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