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Message
re: Obama's CDC study on Firearms.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 3:45 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 3/5/18 at 3:45 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
To the contrary, evidence was found for a positive association, in which states with greater levels of private firearm ownership experienced greater rates of firearm-related violent crimes.
How did the study address endogeneity?
Posted on 3/5/18 at 3:48 pm to HonoraryCoonass
quote:
What we need to do is change the way in which people think about guns, especially young people, and make it something that’s not cool, that it’s not acceptable, it’s not hip to carry a gun anymore, in the way in which we changed our attitudes about cigarettes. We have to be repetitive about this. It’s not enough to have a catchy ad on a Monday and then only do it Monday. We need to do this every day of the week, and just really brainwash people into thinking about guns in a vastly different way.
How about we change people attitudes towards mental illness? If we put the crazies in a place where they cannot harm anyone else (or themselves) it stops these mass shootings. Almost all of these mass shooters are on some type of prescribed meds for mental illness.
Taking the guns away from Cruz might have stopped it, because he could have bought another gun off the street or stolen one from a neighbor. The only way to make sure Mr. Cruz does not kill 17 people in a school is if he is locked away. No amount of gun control will fix it like that would.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 3:50 pm to Clames
quote:
AJAM, like the vast majority of medical publications, is pro-gun-control. They would never publish a study that said otherwise.
And? I can read a source and make my own decisions.
quote:
John Lott has studied the same topic exhaustively, in far more detail and has continued to update his research as more data has come available and has drawn the opposite conclusion. Gun-control advocates have created a cottage industry in discrediting Lott but they have never been able to argue against the data or his methodologies.
I have More Guns, Less Crime, and I've only read the introduction and maybe the first chapter, but he wasn't as rigorous with the data as I'd like, instead summarizing or referencing primary source data for a point. I dropped it because it wasn't the type of analysis I wanted, but I'll finish it if you insist his methodologies are sound. It reads to me to be too polemical to be a worthwhile study of the actual data.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 3:51 pm to Clames
quote:
John Lott has studied the same topic exhaustively, in far more detail and has continued to update his research as more data has come available and has drawn the opposite conclusion. Gun-control advocates have created a cottage industry in discrediting Lott but they have never been able to argue against the data or his methodologies.
Additionally there was a Harvard study done by Don Kates and Gary Mauser at the link here:
LINK
That seeks to determine the efficacy of gun bans. The conclusion to this study is here:
quote:
This Article has reviewed a significant amount of evidence from a wide variety of international sources. Each individual portion of evidence is subject to cavil—at the very least the general objection that the persuasiveness of social scientific evidence cannot remotely approach the persuasiveness of conclusions in the physical sciences. Nevertheless, the burden of proof rests on the proponents of the more guns equal more death and fewer guns equal less death mantra, especially since they argue public policy ought to be based on that mantra.149 To bear that burden would at the very least require showing that a large number of nations with more guns have more death and that nations that have imposed stringent gun controls have achieved substantial reductions in criminal violence (or suicide). But those correlations are not observed when a large number of nations are compared across the world.
quote:
Over a decade ago, Professor Brandon Centerwall of the University of Washington undertook an extensive, statistically sophisticated study comparing areas in the United States and Canada to determine whether Canada’s more restrictive policies had better contained criminal violence. When he published his results it was with the admonition:
If you are surprised by [our] finding[s], so [are we]. [We] did not begin this research with any intent to “exonerate” handguns, but there it is—a negative finding, to be sure, but a negative finding is nevertheless a positive contribution. It directs us where not to aim public health resources.150
Posted on 3/5/18 at 4:00 pm to SidewalkDawg
Debunking the Defensive Gun use Myth
Here is a thread from 2015, where the gun grabbers on the board refused to analogue the report. It is a good read...
Here is a thread from 2015, where the gun grabbers on the board refused to analogue the report. It is a good read...
Posted on 3/5/18 at 4:15 pm to HonoraryCoonass
In my humble opinion, we need to concentrate resources on dealing with mental and emotional health issues. Too many crazies walking the streets and too many cucks not able to handle the wife/girlfriend kicking them to the curb.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 4:20 pm to HonoraryCoonass
quote:muh russians...
and just really brainwash people
Posted on 3/5/18 at 4:53 pm to SidewalkDawg
Politicians like obama need to be in prison
Posted on 3/5/18 at 4:54 pm to SidewalkDawg
I love bringing this up with posters like BamaAtl. It shuts them down on that point with the quickness.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 4:55 pm to HonoraryCoonass
You've been brain-washed. Wake up!
Posted on 3/5/18 at 6:07 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I will read this report tonight, but there was an ecological study published in 2015 in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine called "Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime,
Nevermind my previous question. I found this study.
It is complete horseshite. I'll break it down for everyone.
The authors regressed violent crime on gun ownership. The null hypothesis here would be that there is no relationship.
There are at least three alternative hypotheses here.
A) Gun ownership deters violent crime. If this is true, we would expect a negative relationship.
B) Gun owners commit more violent crimes. Positive relationship.
C) People that live in areas with lots of crime buy more guns. Positive relationship.
Now, it should be noted that these alternatives aren't mutually exclusive. They could all true to varying degrees.
Maybe A and C are true while B is false. This would be great for pro gun people, but depending on the relative strength we could see a negative, positive, or no result.
Anyway, the authors find a positive result and conclude that the evidence doesn't support A.
However for B and C, we don't know which is primarily driving the result.
To try to address that issue, the authors regress violent crime in 2002 and 2004 on gun ownership in 2001. They then claim that this shows that gun ownership drives crime.
This is false. We've already established a positive relationship between gun ownership and crime. To restate this test, all they show is that high crime in 2001 is related to high crime in 2002 and 2004. In other words, all they've shown is autocorrelation in crime rate. Places that are high crime this year are likely to be high crime next year and the year after.
Finally, one of the authors receives funding from the Joyce Foundation. I'll drop this quote from wikipedia about the Joyce Foundation
quote:
The Foundation is notable for its support of gun control measures.
In conclusion, a pro gun control organization financed a shoddily done study that supports gun control.
The study
This post was edited on 3/5/18 at 6:10 pm
Posted on 3/5/18 at 6:15 pm to culsutiger
quote:
culsutiger
Thank you for this. That's some good info. I'll reread the study with this viewpoint in mind.
Posted on 3/6/18 at 7:52 am to crazy4lsu
Interesting that not a single liberal has chimed in on this study. Does anyone who thinks the USA shouldn't have the right to firearms have anything at all to say about this?
Posted on 3/6/18 at 7:53 am to SidewalkDawg
quote:
The entire study is here for anyone interested:
You missed the relevant parts:
quote:
The committee was charged with articulating the topics that should make up a public health firearm violence research agenda
quote:
In addition to the restrictions on certain kinds of data collection, congressional action in 1996 effectively halted all firearm-related injury research at the CDC by prohibiting the use of federal funding “to advocate or promote gun control.”18 In 2011, Congress enacted similar restrictions affecting the entire U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.19 The net result was an overall reduction in firearm violence research (Kellermann and Rivara, 2013). As a result, the past 20 years have witnessed diminished progress in understanding the causes and effects of firearm violence.
This wasn't an independent study, or even a meta-analysis intended to draw conclusions from a broad swath of published research. It was a starting point, a guidepost, intended to direct federal research (pending the Dickey amendment being repealed) into gun violence.
If you're reading it as something else, you're mistaken (as usual).
Posted on 3/6/18 at 7:59 am to BamaAtl
quote:
ongressional action in 1996 effectively halted all firearm-related injury research at the CDC by prohibiting the use of federal funding “to advocate or promote gun control.”
are you just conveniently glossing over this?
Posted on 3/6/18 at 7:59 am to BamaAtl
quote:
If you're reading it as something else, you're mistaken (as usual).
Even if I grant you this point. What do you have to say about the facts that this study found when trying to find a way to bend this to Obama's will? If this CDC research had found anything that suggested "More guns = More violence" do you have any doubts that CNN, MSNBC, and the Obama administration would not have screamed to high heaven about it?
Posted on 3/6/18 at 8:20 am to civiltiger07
quote:
are you just conveniently glossing over this?
Of course not. Are you glossing over that any study that shows more guns = more gun deaths (almost all of them) is classified as "advocating or promoting gun control" by the zealots in the Republican Party, thus rendering any and all research illegal unless you're willing to risk losing all funding (they're not)?
This post was edited on 3/6/18 at 8:24 am
Posted on 3/6/18 at 8:23 am to SidewalkDawg
quote:
What do you have to say about the facts that this study found when trying to find a way to bend this to Obama's will?
That you're misunderstanding the facts the study was looking for, and there are better studies that actually attempt to (and to varying degrees successfully complete the task) coalesce the existing research into a valid conclusion.
quote:
If this CDC research had found anything that suggested "More guns = More violence" do you have any doubts that CNN, MSNBC, and the Obama administration would not have screamed to high heaven about it?
If that had been the purpose of the paper, sure. But, again, this document wasn't looking for either the conclusion or your conclusion that "guns are good and nobody dies from having one". It was merely a "here's what's been published, and here's where we recommend future research go in the near future in regards to best funding opportunities and quickest turnaround for closing gaps in knowledge."
Posted on 3/6/18 at 8:30 am to BamaAtl
Did you know that countries that have more cars have more vehicular deaths?
Posted on 3/6/18 at 8:50 am to BamaAtl
quote:
That you're misunderstanding the facts the study was looking for, and there are better studies that actually attempt to (and to varying degrees successfully complete the task) coalesce the existing research into a valid conclusion.
I understand the facts that the study was looking for was how to justify gun confiscation and regulation. You even admitted so in your post earlier.
But while looking for reason to justify Obama's crusade on guns, the CDC did find actual studies and statistics that you cannot just brush aside.
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