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Started By
Message
re: O/U 25,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 2:57 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
Posted on 4/14/20 at 2:57 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
I think we top out somewhere between 40-60K by August
I would see that as an epic failure of the medical community to both test and treat effectively.
1
Posted on 4/14/20 at 3:24 pm to ljhog
Under.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 4:08 pm to Gaston
Ain't gonna lie, I didn't (still dont) think it was that bad...I still called 50k Americans, and that was knowing they inflated the actual #s
...
Real number was likely 70% of reported at best.
Every year roughly 500k Americans are in poor enough health to get caught by a virus and not survive. I figure if the flu ran it's course fully and CV did as well, the combined might get the weak side of the herd.
60-70k from flu 40-50k from CV seemed average...
Right now I'm going with the over, only because the bug MIGHT get to the weak side of the herd by late summer...
But I don't think it's much more than 25k.
...
Real number was likely 70% of reported at best.
Every year roughly 500k Americans are in poor enough health to get caught by a virus and not survive. I figure if the flu ran it's course fully and CV did as well, the combined might get the weak side of the herd.
60-70k from flu 40-50k from CV seemed average...
Right now I'm going with the over, only because the bug MIGHT get to the weak side of the herd by late summer...
But I don't think it's much more than 25k.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 4:21 pm to baybeefeetz
quote:
According to my calculations a while back, it will be about 52k.
How am I looking?
Posted on 4/14/20 at 4:22 pm to baybeefeetz
Wow, you are asking for it with that question.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 4:40 pm to LSU2a
quote:
COVID-19 deaths by the end of the year?
I’ll go with 65,000.
Well now that is a more difficult question than the first one was.
Summer is coming so if you had said till August I easily would've taken the under.
But you said end of the year and that makes things a bit difficult because of the possibility of the often stated second wave.
So, I think what are we at now, around 25k? I say we settle around 50k by end of May. I'm hoping less but we are still just starting to see downswing.
Then we have a long time to go till end of year. But we are researching the heck out of this mother. I think some drugs are being found that will help with cytokine storm.
65k is a toughie. If you said 60, is take the over.
65, I'm going to take the under.
I'm going to be optimistic here and say more infections than we could've imagined, most of which are asymptomatic meaning second wave really fizzles.
I also say improved treatment will take a bite out of the effects of this virus.
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