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re: Nevada early voting is now complete, looks like 6 EV for the good guys

Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:23 am to
Posted by SportTiger1
Stonewall, LA
Member since Feb 2007
29858 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:23 am to
quote:

NV is a national bellwethwer
is it though? It might tell you something about AZ, but the demo of AZ and NV are very different than the other swing states
Posted by Rip Torner
Member since Jul 2023
1253 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:25 am to
Your confidence is based on what exactly at this point? Super secret inside information from voting systems? You are dumber than Mickey which is impressive
Posted by First Sergeant1
Enterprise, Alabama
Member since Dec 2018
924 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:26 am to
Great update with qualifying data to support where we stand. Thanks!
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
9542 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:26 am to
quote:


Jon Ralston has tapped out. Not even doing a blog tonight


That's how you know it's likely over.
Posted by Nix to Twillie
Houston, TX
Member since Jan 2015
20031 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:27 am to
quote:

I’ve already said l think Trump will win


So why post what you did, other than to just be a troll?
Posted by Tesla
the Laurentian Abyss
Member since Dec 2011
9138 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:32 am to
quote:

Watch that 401K skyrocket over the next 2 years and THEN say that...


What is more important in that dollar figure is what that dollar is actually worth. If your 401(k) number stayed flat and the dollar clawed back 30% of its value, that would be worth more than going up in dollars with rampant inflation. That’s another reason this election is so important.
Posted by Marshhen
Port Eads
Member since Nov 2018
949 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:42 am to
quote:

I’ve already said l think Trump will win…and my life will not change one bit.


I thought he was supposed to jail all Democrats??? That’s what the MSM says non-stop
Posted by Gifman
Member since Jan 2021
17625 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:46 am to
quote:

I’ve already said l think Trump will win…and my life will not change one bit.


Yes it will. You’ll be in a prison camp remember?
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
52487 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:47 am to
quote:

That’s not true, you’ll probably pay less in taxes.

In fact, if he is even slightly successful financially his life has already been heavily impacted by Trump’s first term, during which he lowered Micky’s tax burden. If the Democrats control the government next year that tax burden will go way up.
Posted by Clemsontigers02
Member since Sep 2020
1067 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:48 am to
Hope Browns gets moved over the line too but I don’t think it’s going to happen
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
52487 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:50 am to
quote:

So you don’t think trump is going to round all of you up and be put on Amtrak to the camps?

Excellent point! Those shrill talking points should be very embarrassing to Democrats.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
52487 posts
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:55 am to
quote:

Can someone explain to me why early votes matter?

It’s a good question, and it has an answer that is not well understood.

100% of the early voters will have voted. But if the same cohort waited until election day then some percentage (10%? 20%?) would not vote because their car battery died, they got sick, or just didn’t get around to it.

So you can take that early vote delta - let’s say it’s 100,000 votes - and multiply it by that percentage that would fail to vote on election day, and that’s your impact - maybe 10,000 to 20,000 votes.

There is another potential impact, and that is if you can get very low propensity voters to go early vote then that is a 100% extra vote. They have always done that , but it’s difficult to get much of that done on election day. Now, with early voting being made convenient, it extends the period that GOTV teams can locate low propensity voters and get them to the polls. This is what the Democrats did in 2020 that Trump made no effort to do - and even discouraged it.
This post was edited on 11/2/24 at 9:39 am
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
83782 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 9:15 pm to
quote:

Whew that’s a lot of confidence. Might be fun to revisit this post next week lol


It's next week.
Posted by Aight is Enough
Over Yonder
Member since Nov 2019
686 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 11:36 pm to
quote:

Whew that’s a lot of confidence. Might be fun to revisit this post next week lol

As you suggested, here we are.

LOL.

My B 77. Didn’t notice you’d already addressed it.
This post was edited on 11/7/24 at 11:55 pm
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