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re: Markets may be turbulent tomorrow due to contraction in the AI sector

Posted on 1/27/25 at 5:58 pm to
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135674 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 5:58 pm to
quote:

That's what the people coping keep wishcasting.
Please stop!
Cut and paste crap as you will.
But please stop acting like you understand stuff like this.

Make no mistake.

I'm not saying you're incapable of understanding, or you couldn't understand, if you took the time.
But you don't take the time.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133642 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:05 pm to
NC_, I read the quote below today and instantly thought of you-know-who in this thread...
quote:

“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.”
- Charles Bukowski
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:19 pm to
quote:

But please stop acting like you understand stuff like this.


I understand it fine. Show me proof that Deepseek used A100 chips that are banned in China.


quote:

But you don't take the time.


I spent hours researching and watching video of experts explaining how Deepseek accomplished more efficient AI for less money and resources. But you are telling me those are all lies and it didn't happen OK Boomer
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135674 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:20 pm to
quote:

“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.”
- Charles Bukowski
Damn!

Damn!

Damn!

I'm among the most self-confident folks you'd ever meet.

Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:23 pm to
quote:

A pretty good thread that walks through some of the techniques


Nice. Appreciate the link
Posted by Red Stick Rambler
https://i.imgur.com/2j5cbGm.jpg
Member since Jun 2011
2267 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:38 pm to
quote:

I spent hours researching and watching video of experts explaining how Deepseek accomplished more efficient AI for less money and resources. But you are telling me those are all lies and it didn't happen


I think you missed his point: he’s saying you’re a fricking idiot.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135674 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:39 pm to
quote:

I spent hours researching and watching video of experts explaining how Deepseek accomplished more efficient AI
Oh dude.
You spent hours researching and watching video of experts explaining??
You're not helping yourself.
You just aren't.

quote:

But you are telling me those are all lies
No.
I'm telling you those are not all truths.

quote:

OK Boomer

You've directed your presumed "Boomer" invective at me several times now.
It's odd, because I couldn't care less whether you label me Boomer, or Silent, or Greatest, or X'er, or Millennial. I am who I am.

and ...

... you are who you are.


Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135674 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:41 pm to
quote:

I think you missed his point: he’s saying you’re a fricking idiot.
I was trying to be more diplomatic
Posted by Deacon
Miami, FL
Member since Dec 2009
250 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:48 pm to
On the topic of the hardware and compute - or "is the $6M figure real or did they really train on billions worth of hardware?!?"

Article here

Here's the good part below. There's skepticism, but the good news is it's verifiable if someone can take the code and dataset, and replicate their training runs.

quote:

In the DeepSeek-V3 paper, DeepSeek says that it spent 2.66 million GPU-hours on H800 accelerators to do the pretraining, 119,000 GPU-hours on context extension, and a mere 5,000 GPU-hours for supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the base V3 model, for a total of 2.79 million GPU-hours. At the cost of $2 per GPU hour – we have no idea if that is actually the prevailing price in China – then it cost a mere $5.58 million.

The cluster that DeepSeek says that it used to train the V3 model had a mere 256 server nodes with eight of the H800 GPU accelerators each, for a total of 2,048 GPUs. We presume that they are the H800 SXM5 version of the H800 cards, which have their FP64 floating point performance capped at 1 teraflops and are otherwise the same as the 80 GB version of the H100 card that most of the companies in the world can buy. (The PCI-Express version of the H800 card has some of its CUDA cores deactivated and has its memory bandwidth cut by 39 percent to 2 TB/sec from the 3.35 TB/sec on the base H100 card announced way back in 2022.) The eight GPUs inside the node are interlinked with NVSwitch es to created a shared memory domain across those GPU memories, and the nodes have multiple InfiniBand cards (probably one per GPU) to create high bandwidth links out to other nodes in the cluster. We strongly suspect DeepSeek only had access to 100 Gb/sec InfiniBand adapters and switches, but it could be running at 200 Gb/sec; the company does not say.

We think this is a fairly modest cluster by any modern AI standard, especially given the size of the clusters that OpenAI/Microsoft, Anthropic, and Google have built to train their equivalent GPT-4 and o1, Claude 3.5, and Gemini 1.5 models. We are very skeptical that the V3 model was trained from scratch on such a small cluster. It is simply hard to accept until someone else repeats the task. Luckily, science is repeatable: There are companies with trillions of curated tokens and tens of thousands of GPUs to see if what DeepSeek is claiming is true. On 2,048 H100 GPUs, it would take under two months to train DeepSeek-V3 if what the Chinese AI upstart says is true. That’s pocket change for the hyperscalers and cloud builders to prove out.
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:48 pm to
quote:

I'm telling you those are not all truths.


Without any evidence. Care to share the proof that Deepseek is using A100s that are banned in China? That's the second time I asked and you have not produced any proof. The bottom line is the DeepSeek team of 200 people did this as a side hobby for less than $10 million dollars using outdated hardware and open sourced it. You coping about that does not change those facts.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135674 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

I'm telling you those are not all truths.
----
Without any evidence
You are so easy.


Facts already posted.


Goodness!
Posted by Strannix
C.S.A.
Member since Dec 2012
52914 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:57 pm to
AI is a scam
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466723 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:58 pm to
Someone needs to add a subtitle to this thread (The Destruction of John Barron)
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135674 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 6:58 pm to
quote:

AI is a scam
Negative!
Posted by lsuguy84
Madisonville
Member since Feb 2009
26381 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 7:01 pm to
Quite the timeline on this guy. Reminds me of this.

Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466723 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 7:01 pm to
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 7:11 pm to
I found NC Boomer.... This is the exact type of dumbass behavior you exhibit


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Nvidia losses a record $600 billion in 1 day

NC Boomer: It's all Lies!!


This post was edited on 1/27/25 at 7:15 pm
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135674 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 7:27 pm to
quote:

Nvidia losses a record $600 billion in 1 day

NC Boomer: It's all Lies!!
quote:

NVDA stock price plummeted 17% to close at $118.58. It was the stock’s worst day on the market since March 16, 2020.
FYI, I sold a bunch of NVDA on Friday at $146. I bought $50K at $117.60 today. Small position, but the downward move made no sense.

Where did you put your money?????

This post was edited on 1/27/25 at 7:32 pm
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 7:32 pm to
Anecdotal point about DeepSeek being a disrupter:

My son is a senior math major at LSU graduating this spring. I told him about the DeepSeek story and he said, "I know. I canceled my ChatGPT math subscription and opened a DeepSeek account for free."

Posted by TigerBaitOohHaHa
Member since Jan 2023
1774 posts
Posted on 1/27/25 at 7:33 pm to
my NVDIA holdings took an arse whooping. Good thing I like bologna on white bread sandwhiches.
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