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Started By
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Let’s discuss the housing market
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:07 pm
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:07 pm
I know there is a thread on the money board about this but I wanna get into the politics of it without corrupting that thread.
This has got to be the most competitive market to buy a house in that anybody has seen. My real estate agent has been doing this for 33 years and has never seen anything like it. Houses go on the market and in 2 days will have 10-20 offers, site unseen, and full closing.
What is going on? Inventory is low and that could mean people are afraid to sell because of the direction of America. Are people trying to lock in a low rate before it gets jacked up again? Are people trying to get what they consider a good payment before hyperinflation kicks in? Could it be people are fleeing blue states to red states? I don’t believe this one because I’ve read that the market is like this everywhere.
I think it’s a combination people are trying to get locked in on a low rate before they are raised (I believe forbearance ends in September) and want a decent payment before inflation hits hard.
This has got to be the most competitive market to buy a house in that anybody has seen. My real estate agent has been doing this for 33 years and has never seen anything like it. Houses go on the market and in 2 days will have 10-20 offers, site unseen, and full closing.
What is going on? Inventory is low and that could mean people are afraid to sell because of the direction of America. Are people trying to lock in a low rate before it gets jacked up again? Are people trying to get what they consider a good payment before hyperinflation kicks in? Could it be people are fleeing blue states to red states? I don’t believe this one because I’ve read that the market is like this everywhere.
I think it’s a combination people are trying to get locked in on a low rate before they are raised (I believe forbearance ends in September) and want a decent payment before inflation hits hard.
28
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:09 pm to olemc999
Price of lumber.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:10 pm to olemc999
Low mortgage interest rates (still well below 3% in many areas) generating high demand combined with relatively low supply and the price of materials spiking (particularly lumbar).
This post was edited on 4/28/21 at 10:12 pm
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:11 pm to auggie
Yeah I know that’s part of it. I know a guy that said that some people are having houses framed in steel because it’s cheaper than lumber. That’s absolutely amazing to me.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:12 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
still well below 3% in many areas
What does this mean "in many areas"?
quote:
Price of lumber.
Saw a 200sqft deck would cost 3600 now vs 900 last year
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:16 pm to olemc999
quote:Up north, in old steel mill depressed towns... that you couldn't pay someone to buy not long ago.
and has never seen anything like it. Houses go on the market and in 2 days will have 10-20 offers, site unseen, and full closing.
Overnight the houses jacked up in price and have 7 to 8 in bidding wars for an over priced house.
People are offering 50K over asking, no inspection, now going into offering to pay full closing.
I always compare to my first VA home loan. They want so much to close on a house today. And home inspectors are a rip off as well. It is just a negotiating tool.
If people knew to check the air handler serial number age, roof, foundation for cracks, age of furnace, and water heater, they could save so much money. But people are stupid.
This post was edited on 4/28/21 at 10:17 pm
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:20 pm to olemc999
quote:umm.. steel has been impacted with significant increases alongside lumber....
Yeah I know that’s part of it. I know a guy that said that some people are having houses framed in steel because it’s cheaper than lumber. That’s absolutely amazing to me.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:20 pm to olemc999
I heard this as well about steel. Also that lumbar went up because Canada bought our tree mills? Also a rumor but I can confirm--- that soon HVAC supplies and equipment will be scarce soon. Service will be expensive.
What did Biden do let Hunter sell everything?
What did Biden do let Hunter sell everything?
This post was edited on 4/28/21 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:22 pm to SDVTiger
quote:yep, but why? is the Canada bought tree mills story true?
Saw a 200sqft deck would cost 3600 now vs 900 last year
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:24 pm to olemc999
Building materials shortage.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:25 pm to cajunangelle
Not sure what is driving it but we have been thinking of downsizing with our kids out of the house and I see no better time than now. The prices being paid in our county are unreal. I have no doubt the bubble is going burst at some point in the near future, hope we are on the good side of that time-line.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:31 pm to cajunangelle
quote:
If people knew to check the air handler serial number age, roof, foundation for cracks, age of furnace, and water heater, they could save so much money. But people are stupid.
If you are willing to crawl around under the house and check everything out, then you can save some money. I had an inspector save my arse a few years ago, and the 500 bucks I paid him was well spent. I had found this beautiful cabin on a big chunk of land near Cornersville Tn. up near the top of a little mountain, some nice pasture with new fencing, a newish barn, I was set on buying it, and the deal was coming together great, but I got the inspector in there, and he found rot all up under the floors.
This post was edited on 4/28/21 at 10:36 pm
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:41 pm to olemc999
I also think a lot of people are working from home now and have made it a permanent thing, never to return to their office in the cities. Care more about where and in what they reside, moving out to the suburbs, etc.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:42 pm to olemc999
I work with real estate valuation. It's a perfect storm:
-price of lumber on the cost side
-insanely low interest rates boosting demand
-insufficient inventory due to slow permitting for new construction in the years following the financial crisis
-pent up demand from previously unqualified or cautious buyers after the financial crisis
-some fear of rates going up
I'm probably forgetting some things, but these are the ones that immediately come to mind.
These list-to-price ratios and bidding wars are unsustainable in the long run. The problem is nobody has the crystal ball to say when the tide will turn.
I've had agents and appraisers who are close to retirement tell me they've never seen a market like this. There aren't enough appraisers and attorneys in our markets to meet demand. Closings are scheduling 6+ weeks out.
-price of lumber on the cost side
-insanely low interest rates boosting demand
-insufficient inventory due to slow permitting for new construction in the years following the financial crisis
-pent up demand from previously unqualified or cautious buyers after the financial crisis
-some fear of rates going up
I'm probably forgetting some things, but these are the ones that immediately come to mind.
These list-to-price ratios and bidding wars are unsustainable in the long run. The problem is nobody has the crystal ball to say when the tide will turn.
I've had agents and appraisers who are close to retirement tell me they've never seen a market like this. There aren't enough appraisers and attorneys in our markets to meet demand. Closings are scheduling 6+ weeks out.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:42 pm to olemc999
I bought my place 5 years ago for 144, I saw a comparable, without updates, almost 100k more. I made a post on FB asking similar question and had interest. I was shocked.
This post was edited on 4/28/21 at 10:45 pm
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:45 pm to olemc999
People fleeing New York and California.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:49 pm to TerryDawg03
quote:
I work with real estate valuation.
So here is a question I have. With rates this low and the fear of rates going back up is this a good time to buy? Because it is definitely a sellers market. My agent even called it a “hybrid market”.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:49 pm to olemc999
1. Low interest rates
2. Urban sprawl (people leaving cities because of work from home)
3. Lumber and Steel shortage in the supply chain due to COVID which means few new builds/inventory
4. Millennials finally having the financial means to buy
5. Refinancing has people staying put in their current properties
It’s the perfect storm.
2. Urban sprawl (people leaving cities because of work from home)
3. Lumber and Steel shortage in the supply chain due to COVID which means few new builds/inventory
4. Millennials finally having the financial means to buy
5. Refinancing has people staying put in their current properties
It’s the perfect storm.
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:50 pm to auggie
quote:That sounds like a little slice of heaven
I had found this beautiful cabin on a big chunk of land near Cornersville Tn. up near the top of a little mountain,
Posted on 4/28/21 at 10:51 pm to olemc999
Huge crash coming.
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