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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 11/10/26 at 3:27 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 11/10/26 at 3:27 am to Coeur du Tigre
More on the Israeli equipment and the workaround for Starlink it presents.
quote:
"Ukraine has slipped off the American leash and found a commercial alternative that the White House cannot switch off with a phone call."
That is coming from a Russian military channel, not Ukrainian propaganda.
quote:
The Russian Telegram channel *??????? ??????????* (Intelligence Officer’s Diary, 147,800 subscribers) describes a major shift in Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign following the strikes on Kstovo, Samara and Yaroslavl.
Previously, Ukrainian drones were sent toward predetermined targets. If the first drones successfully hit a refinery unit, the rest continued toward the same target.
Now, according to the Russian channel, Ukrainian operators can monitor strikes in real time and redirect incoming drones while they are still in flight.
Once a primary distillation unit is hit, subsequent drones can be redirected toward storage tanks, cracking units, electrical substations or other critical equipment.
Instead of concentrating an entire wave on one target, Ukraine can distribute the damage across multiple parts of the refinery.
quote:
The channel attributes this capability to Israeli HiSKY SmartLight satellite communications terminals, which it says Ukraine is using as an alternative to Starlink.
It claims the terminals allow two-way communication over Russian territory, making it possible to adjust flight paths, identify air-defence positions and redirect drones around interception zones.
And then comes the most revealing part. The Russian channel argues that American restrictions on Starlink have backfired spectacularly.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 11/10/26 at 3:30 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 11/10/26 at 3:33 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine’s massive campaign of strikes deep into Russia’s rear has wrecked Putin’s plan to conquer the rest of Donbas in 2026.
From January through October it seized only 119 km² — almost 41 times less than in the same period of 2025 (ISW). In April–May it even lost ground. By autumn the line had largely stalled. In September–October it lost more territory than it gained.
The original plan was to encircle the “fortress belt” (Sloviansk–Kramatorsk–Kostiantynivka) from the north via Lyman and from the south via Pokrovsk. That plan has collapsed. Ukrainian forces pushed Russian units back from Lyman in the autumn. The southern advance was stopped.
ISW analyst George Barros links the failure directly to Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign — a capability that did not exist at this scale in 2025. Drones operating 30–200 km behind the front have systematically hit supply routes, ammunition dumps, fuel, command posts and air-defence assets. Russian logistics, according to Barros, “never recovered.”
Moscow has already postponed the full capture of Donbas at least sixteen times. The latest internal deadline, reported in September, is the end of February 2027. The operational plan for this year is over. What remains is slow, costly frontal fighting for individual towns.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/10/26 at 3:43 am to Coeur du Tigre
You think Musk has contractual control of Starshield? A low-Earth-orbit satellite network for military, intelligence, and national security purposes?
Posted on 11/10/26 at 6:10 am to DMAN1968
quote:The Congress will get answers to this question and more.
You think Musk has contractual control of Starshield? A low-Earth-orbit satellite network for military, intelligence, and national security purposes?
Posted on 11/10/26 at 7:57 am to Coeur du Tigre
Russian underwear sales are up 7%
Posted on 11/10/26 at 8:24 am to CitizenK
Volodymyr Zelenskyy /
@ZelenskyyUa
·
3h
Ceding Ukrainian land for peace is just abstract words. It’s not only about reality, even more about philosophy. Putin was talking about Donbas, but then he decided to occupy Kyiv, our capital. His words were about Donbas, but the reality was about Kyiv. He kept saying he was defending Russian-speaking people and then tortured hundreds and thousands to death in Bucha and other places. So that wasn’t about Russian-speaking people.
This is why when Americans asked, “Can you exchange Donbas for security?” I said right there, “Can you tell me what it means? What security? NATO?”
“Not NATO, but similar to NATO.”
“Similar? But you don't want the answer about Donbas to be ‘similar.’ You want a clear answer about Donbas. This is your goal. And this is Putin’s goal, for today. What will you do if we have security guarantees but not NATO?”
They took our nuclear weapons. I'm not a fan of nuclear weapons. I think the world would be a better place without them. But the Russians took our nuclear weapons, didn’t they? They did. Then they stopped our integration into Europe, then prevented us from being in NATO. And in the end they occupied us. This is why it’s an abstract question. Nobody trusts Putin to stop if we leave Donbas. He will pause. Then he will come back in one year, two years, or five years. And who will be guilty?
From an interview with DR Nyheder. (2/3)
@ZelenskyyUa
·
3h
Ceding Ukrainian land for peace is just abstract words. It’s not only about reality, even more about philosophy. Putin was talking about Donbas, but then he decided to occupy Kyiv, our capital. His words were about Donbas, but the reality was about Kyiv. He kept saying he was defending Russian-speaking people and then tortured hundreds and thousands to death in Bucha and other places. So that wasn’t about Russian-speaking people.
This is why when Americans asked, “Can you exchange Donbas for security?” I said right there, “Can you tell me what it means? What security? NATO?”
“Not NATO, but similar to NATO.”
“Similar? But you don't want the answer about Donbas to be ‘similar.’ You want a clear answer about Donbas. This is your goal. And this is Putin’s goal, for today. What will you do if we have security guarantees but not NATO?”
They took our nuclear weapons. I'm not a fan of nuclear weapons. I think the world would be a better place without them. But the Russians took our nuclear weapons, didn’t they? They did. Then they stopped our integration into Europe, then prevented us from being in NATO. And in the end they occupied us. This is why it’s an abstract question. Nobody trusts Putin to stop if we leave Donbas. He will pause. Then he will come back in one year, two years, or five years. And who will be guilty?
From an interview with DR Nyheder. (2/3)
Posted on 11/10/26 at 8:34 am to cypher
quote:
Nobody trusts Putin to stop if we leave Donbas. He will pause. Then he will come back in one year, two years, or five years
Z knows, trading land for promises that will be broken does not work. Europe learned that already. Trump should know better.
Posted on 11/10/26 at 8:52 am to Coeur du Tigre
I was curious about Russian losses and its ability to recruit. I found this article from the Carnegie Institute:
Does Russia Have Enough Soldiers to Keep Waging War Against Ukraine?
It's a long article but a good one.
Does Russia Have Enough Soldiers to Keep Waging War Against Ukraine?
quote:
the Russian army is not currently struggling to recruit new contract soldiers, though the number of people willing to go to war for money is dwindling. The military is now more concerned about the quality of the “resources” available.
The current recruitment system generally attracts socially disadvantaged people, from the unemployed to prisoners. They are typically individuals with low motivation and limited qualifications and aptitude for learning. Yet the nature of warfare increasingly requires trained specialists rather than mass infantry.
It's a long article but a good one.
Posted on 11/10/26 at 9:08 am to Mr Happy
quote:
I was curious about Russian losses and its ability to recruit. I found this article from the Carnegie Institute:
Nothing new for Russia.
Posted on 11/10/26 at 9:21 am to Coeur du Tigre
Will this new Congress ask what happened to all those billions we shipped to them?
I doubt they ask at all. Will they ask about the US labs? No. Doubtful. Will they look into US meddling in prior long ago elections. Will they ask why we could have a Presidential election in 1864 but they cannot? Will they ask for the conversations at the first peace conference?
I doubt they ask at all. Will they ask about the US labs? No. Doubtful. Will they look into US meddling in prior long ago elections. Will they ask why we could have a Presidential election in 1864 but they cannot? Will they ask for the conversations at the first peace conference?
Posted on 11/10/26 at 9:26 am to CitizenK
according to Russian Z bloggers the regions are running out of money for recruiting bonuses and death benefits.
Due to budgetary cuts, authorities of Russian St Petersburg have cut bonuses for signing up to become a Russian soldier almost 9-fold.
Russia was able to get new cannon fodder for its war through essentially buying new recruits. Now, its economy can no longer sustain this system.
This is the second cut in two weeks. Prior to them, those who signed up for the war in St Petersburg received 3.5 million rubles (almost $43,000). Then, the payment was reduced to 1 million, and now it is 400,000 rubles (almost $5,000).
Also, according to Russian Z-bloggers, Russian authorities are greatly reducing payments for the death of Russian soldiers. Some regions canceled these payments altogether. They explain that the "financial situation in the regions is difficult". So far, federal, presidential and insurance payments when a Russian soldier gets killed remain unchanged (the regional ones are getting reduced).
One of the Russian "Z-bloggers" compiled the following list of Russian regions where payments have been reduced or eliminated:
Ulyanovsk region. In February 2026, the payment was reduced from 1 million to 500,000 rubles, and in April to 50,000 rubles.
Saratov region. From November 1, 2026, the payment has been reduced from 1 million to 100,000 rubles.
Kemerovo region. In February 2026, the payment was reduced from 3 million to 1 million rubles.
Bashkortostan. Initially, the payment for death was 2 million rubles, then it was reduced to 1 million, then to 500,000, now the payment is 100,000 rubles.
Omsk region. In February 2026, the payment was reduced from 1 million to 500,000 rubles.
Kirov region. Similarly, from 1 million to 500,000 rubles.
Orenburg region. Complete cancellation of regional payments from July 1, 2026.
Khakassia. Complete cancellation of the payment of 1.1 million rubles.
Smolensk region. Reduction from 1 million to 700,000 rubles.
Irkutsk region. From 1 million to 500,000 rubles from April 1, 2026.
Belgorod region. From 3 million to 1 million rubles.
Due to budgetary cuts, authorities of Russian St Petersburg have cut bonuses for signing up to become a Russian soldier almost 9-fold.
Russia was able to get new cannon fodder for its war through essentially buying new recruits. Now, its economy can no longer sustain this system.
This is the second cut in two weeks. Prior to them, those who signed up for the war in St Petersburg received 3.5 million rubles (almost $43,000). Then, the payment was reduced to 1 million, and now it is 400,000 rubles (almost $5,000).
Also, according to Russian Z-bloggers, Russian authorities are greatly reducing payments for the death of Russian soldiers. Some regions canceled these payments altogether. They explain that the "financial situation in the regions is difficult". So far, federal, presidential and insurance payments when a Russian soldier gets killed remain unchanged (the regional ones are getting reduced).
One of the Russian "Z-bloggers" compiled the following list of Russian regions where payments have been reduced or eliminated:
Ulyanovsk region. In February 2026, the payment was reduced from 1 million to 500,000 rubles, and in April to 50,000 rubles.
Saratov region. From November 1, 2026, the payment has been reduced from 1 million to 100,000 rubles.
Kemerovo region. In February 2026, the payment was reduced from 3 million to 1 million rubles.
Bashkortostan. Initially, the payment for death was 2 million rubles, then it was reduced to 1 million, then to 500,000, now the payment is 100,000 rubles.
Omsk region. In February 2026, the payment was reduced from 1 million to 500,000 rubles.
Kirov region. Similarly, from 1 million to 500,000 rubles.
Orenburg region. Complete cancellation of regional payments from July 1, 2026.
Khakassia. Complete cancellation of the payment of 1.1 million rubles.
Smolensk region. Reduction from 1 million to 700,000 rubles.
Irkutsk region. From 1 million to 500,000 rubles from April 1, 2026.
Belgorod region. From 3 million to 1 million rubles.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 11/10/26 at 9:29 am
Posted on 11/10/26 at 9:35 am to Mr Happy
quote:"The very essence of instinct is that it's followed independently of reason." - Charles Darwin.
... the number of people willing to go to war for money is dwindling. The military is now more concerned about the quality of the “resources” available.
Darwin understands recruiting. Especially Russian recruiting.
Posted on 11/10/26 at 10:17 am to cypher
quote:
This is why when Americans asked, “Can you exchange Donbas for security?” I said right there, “Can you tell me what it means? What security? NATO?”
“Not NATO, but similar to NATO.”
Sweden and Finland joined NATO with ease because both could check every box required of them with ease and were already integrated militarily as Partners in Peace with NATO.
Ukraine is years away from being able meet all of the requirements The decision by NATO has to be unanimous by all members as well.
Like NATO is all Ukraine can get for years to come.
War lends itself to increasing corruption as it did in the US durig WWII. An artillery shell manufacturing plant in St. Louis run by the Mafia never produce a single shell accepted. A manufacturing of beds in NOLA got a contract with the Army to build bunk beds. It intentionally made them an inch shorter than specified. This allowed it to obtain the steel and provide 1 inch short beds for sale at much higher price.
This post was edited on 11/10/26 at 10:27 am
Posted on 11/10/26 at 10:31 am to doubleb
Fool me once...
On December 5, 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, trading the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal (inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union) for commitments from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The signatories pledged to respect Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity and to refrain from the threat or use of force against its sovereignty.
However, the agreement provided only "security assurances" rather than binding military security guarantees. Crucially, the U.S. and U.K. did not commit to automatic military defense, meaning the document was not equivalent to NATO’s Article 5. The memorandum also did not constitute a legally binding treaty, a distinction explicitly made by U.S. lawyers to avoid requiring Senate ratification.
The assurances were widely viewed as betrayed when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and launched a full-scale invasion in 2022. Following these violations, Ukrainian officials and experts have frequently cited the failed memorandum as a reason for seeking NATO membership or other robust, legally binding security guarantees to prevent future aggression.
On December 5, 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, trading the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal (inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union) for commitments from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The signatories pledged to respect Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity and to refrain from the threat or use of force against its sovereignty.
However, the agreement provided only "security assurances" rather than binding military security guarantees. Crucially, the U.S. and U.K. did not commit to automatic military defense, meaning the document was not equivalent to NATO’s Article 5. The memorandum also did not constitute a legally binding treaty, a distinction explicitly made by U.S. lawyers to avoid requiring Senate ratification.
The assurances were widely viewed as betrayed when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and launched a full-scale invasion in 2022. Following these violations, Ukrainian officials and experts have frequently cited the failed memorandum as a reason for seeking NATO membership or other robust, legally binding security guarantees to prevent future aggression.
Posted on 11/10/26 at 10:50 am to Auburn1968
burn them all down.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/10/26 at 11:42 am to DMAN1968
quote:
You think Musk has contractual control of Starshield? A low-Earth-orbit satellite network for military, intelligence, and national security purposes?
Yes. Hell, yes.
It's an enormous money maker that gives his power-obsessed self direct control over geopolitical matters. I would bet any amount of money he knows exactly what is going on and is making both big-picture strategic decisions and quite possibly on-the-ground decisions down to the lowest private.
The only way he doesn't know is because he's farmed out his direct control to an underling willing to do his bidding so he can claim ignorance - ti would be an act of weaponized pasivity.
Posted on 11/10/26 at 1:11 pm to goatmilker
quote:
Will this new Congress ask what happened to all those billions we shipped to them?
FFS
YES. WE KNOW WHAT THE UKRAINIANS ARE DOING WITH THE AID WE SEND THEM. We've always known.
I don't doubt that there is some graft, there unfortunately always is, even in times like WWII - it's unfortunately part of politics and just people being stupid and dishonest. But when I'm watching Bradley's and Abrams in combat, and A LOT OF THEM, we're pretty gd sure what's going on.
And hell, why would we even ask when JD Vance has repeatedly said "My proudest moment is when we cut the Ukrainians aid to nothing." WE AREN'T SENDING THEM ANY REAL MATERIAL AID ANYMORE, just sanctions and info.
GODDAMNIT I'M TIRED OF PICKING UP AFTER THIS NUMBSKULL ADMINISTRATION.
quote:
Will they ask about the US labs?
WTF WOULD WE HAVE LABS ANYWHERE NEAR RUSSIA, GIVING THEM EASY ACCESS TO OUR INFO????? EVEN BEFORE THE INVASION???? This might - might - be the single dumbest question to come out of this war.
quote:
Will they ask why we could have a Presidential election in 1864 but they cannot?
WTF ARE YOU EVEN TALKING ABOUT???????
Posted on 11/10/26 at 3:23 pm to Leopold
Bless your heart 
Posted on 11/10/26 at 6:32 pm to goatmilker
quote:
Will this new Congress ask what happened to all those billions we shipped to them?
I doubt they ask at all. Will they ask about the US labs? No. Doubtful. Will they look into US meddling in prior long ago elections. Will they ask why we could have a Presidential election in 1864 but they cannot? Will they ask for the conversations at the first peace conference?
Their constitution forbids elections during war.
The lab thing is a Russian invention because it had many dozens across former Soviet states. The US helped decontaminate most of the these over 2 decades. Biowarfare labs that is. When Ukraine began pushing Russia back, Russian media blamed it on Ukrainian Super Soldiers created in bio labs with US military drugs provided by the CIA. There were at least 28 biowarfare labs in Ukraine when it split with the USSR. Some were converted to civilian needs after decon.
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