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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 9/8/26 at 10:30 pm to doubleb
Posted on 9/8/26 at 10:30 pm to doubleb
quote:
Can they fully mobilize? I ask because they’ve threatened this for months now.
They've been threatening it since 2022 when Putin signed a decree for mobilizaton:
Politico: Full text of Putin's 2022 mobilization decree
The hard answer is 'kind-of.'
They can continue to bring in 'recruits' by the hundreds of thousands but considering they are probably losing between 300k-500k a year to the meat grinder there isn't much chance of them building up a much larger army anytime soon.
The word is out that if you get sent to the war you're not coming back and nobody wants to go - would you? Keep in mind, they emptied out their jails three years ago and have nothing to show for it. So any chance of Russians going willingly, unless it's a 65 year old deep in debt with nothing to live for, is pretty much a 'no.'
So, no, they aren't going to mobilize like everybody is afraid of. But what if they did? What if I'm wrong? What would happen if they did manage to pull it together and force, say, a half a million men into their ranks? And there wasn't a revolt? What would happen?
Well, because the Russians lack an actual organized infrastructure and in-processing system they are going to fail to organize, train, and stand-up their new recruits in an organized and effective fashion. Then they are going to fail to get them to the front in an effective manner because they can't protect them or mass them in any way. And since they are untrained, disorganized, unwilling, and in many cases unarmed, you're just sending men to die by drones.
So what happens is just an extension of what has been happening - the Russians will send untrained, unmotivated, victims or naive dumbasses who believed the lies to die by the tens of thousands in small groups that take little to no ground. And that's before we discuss the political fallout.
So, no, by most measures they can't.
This post was edited on 9/8/26 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 9/9/26 at 2:39 am to Leopold
quote:And the demands are growing. With this last set sent with the Dynamic Duo was a demand that Ukraine make changes to their Constitution.
And now Witkoff and Kushner have reported that he's - again - doubled down on the 'we're winning and Ukraine belongs to us' rhetoric
As to mobilization, Putin will absolutely mobilize as many troops as possible after their elections. He will try to do as many 'stealth mobilizations' as he is doing now, but a declared conscription will be in the mix. The numbers projected vary wildly according to Russian male age groups effected, but most are settling in the 450,000 to 600,000 range.
Here's the point most are missing - it is more important to understand the background psychology driving it. Let's ask ourselves why would Putin not call this mobilization? Because he is too concerned about all of the negative effects on the Russian society? That's not just unlikely, it's impossible. Putin, being a psychopath, is incapable of showing empathy because he literally has none. He doesn't see the negative aspects of a mobilization because he is blind to them. So there are no reasons that he won't order the mobilization.
The only restraint on Putin's behavior are direct threats to his person. This is why he will never use nuclear weapons nor start a war with NATO. But there is one more threat which is the greatest one now and that is from the siloviki and security organizations. Because of the forced mobilizations at factory gates, many of the oligarch's workers will be swept up into the army. How Putin handles this and other strains on the economy will be the only restraints he recognizes.
Posted on 9/9/26 at 3:01 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces commander Magyar says a combined Ukrainian strike on the Novorossiysk naval base overnight hit several Russian military vessels, including missile carriers. He also reported that Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed a Su-33 carrier-based fighter and Mi-8 helicopter near Anapa, plus a Kasta-2E2 radar and a 92N6 radar from an S-300/400 system near Gelendzhik. No footage has been released yet to confirm the claims.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/9/26 at 3:01 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 9/9/26 at 3:04 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery on September 6, satellite footage shared by Exilenova+ shows. The facility, Russia's third-largest by design capacity at about 18.8 million tons annually, remains under constant repairs. AVT-3 and AVT-4 are still being repaired, while new damage from the latest strike is assessed as likely.
quote:
In addition to AVT-3 and AVT-4, the sky over the Ryazan Refinery cleared, and we saw the very burned AT-6 and AVT-1, -
AVT-1 — ~2.0 million tons/year
AVT-2 — ~2.0 million tons/year
AVT-3 — ~3.0 million tons/year
AVT-4 — ~4.0 million tons/year
AT-6 — ~8.1 million tons/year
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LINK

This post was edited on 9/9/26 at 8:08 am
Posted on 9/9/26 at 3:12 am to Coeur du Tigre
Taking out the radar is Step #1.
quote:
Achilles brigade was able to establish fire control over the Millerovo airfield 170 kilometers from the line of combat contact! From this airfield, the Russians, in particular, launch Shaheds on Ukraine. The RAM-2x barrage munition overcame this distance and successfully hit Nebo-U airfield radar. And all this under the close supervision of a reconnaissance UAV. There was no total destruction, but the radar was specifically hit. But even partial damage to such a radar puts it out of action for at least 3–6 months.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/9/26 at 3:17 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 9/9/26 at 3:21 am to Coeur du Tigre
The war on Russian air defences continues every day.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 9/9/26 at 3:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
Russian casulities are up so far this month.
quote:
[This is] what happens when the enemy concentrates manpower on the front edge, especially on the Dobropillia axis in Donetsk region, inside the Azov grouping's strip. They packed the line. The drones noticed. Eight days into September, and the SBS counter already shows 3,395 dead occupiers. 16,720 enemy targets struck in the same window. Read that again. Sixteen thousand targets in eight days.
quote:
Novorossiysk naval base took a combined strike overnight and lost military vessels, including missile carriers. In Anapa, the SBS birds killed a Su-33 deck fighter, an Mi-8 helicopter, and two radar complexes, including a 92N6 from an S-300/400 battery near Gelendzhik.
Every radar killed means the next wave flies deeper with less resistance.
Moscovia escalates by throwing more bodies at the front. Ukraine responds by making the entire depth of the occupied territories and the moscovian rear a kill zone.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/9/26 at 3:47 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 9/9/26 at 4:15 am to Coeur du Tigre
Here's a detailed view of the Russian mobilization tactics being employed on their population -
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.quote:
Mobilisation under the original September 2022 decree has never stopped, although it has become less public and disruptive. The Russian government has modernised its mobilisation system and compelled state agencies, including state-owned companies, to become recruiters.
quote:
Local government has become a key element of this, with regional, district, and municipal leaders being given monthly recruitment quotas to fulfil. They have done this in many cases by using the police to detain and pressure people into joining the army.
quote:
by this summer, "municipal and regional involvement in recruiting the Russian Armed Forces [has become] permanent, formalised, and uncontested.
quote:
"[This] clearly demonstrates the state's de facto transition to a system of total, covert conscription, where officials are transformed into full-time recruiters for the military department."
quote:
"Enterprises are also involved in this system: the management of several organisations is obligated to ensure recruitment at a rate of 5% to 10% of the full-time staff, forcing employees to choose between signing a [military] contract or dismissal, with their data being transferred to military registration authorities."
quote:
As 'News Feed Critic' observes, this means "that the risk of being drafted into military service is no longer limited to direct contact with the military recruitment office: a simple job search, employment at a company, or even being under investigation can become a gateway to a contract with the Ministry of Defence, bypassing official mobilisation and the conscious choice of someone who wasn't initially seeking military service."
Posted on 9/9/26 at 4:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
Another detailed thread about the current Russian agricultural disaster -
quote:
Since mid-August, more than 90% of Russia's grain export capacity in the Azov-Black Sea basin has been offline following Ukrainian attacks and navigational restrictions, hitting the country's main export corridor during the peak of the harvesting season.
quote:
The only southern grain ports still in operation are those on the Caspian Sea (5 million tons in the 2025/26 season), the port of Vysotsky (1.3 million tons), and the port of Ust-Luga (0.3 million tons). Officials are now reportedly racing to expand their capacity.
quote:
Exporters have essentially stopped buying, and domestic prices for fourth-class wheat have fallen to about 12,000 rubles ($142) per ton, down from 15,000 rubles ($177) a year earlier, representing catastrophic losses for grain producers and exporters.
quote:
Harvesting grain has now become more expensive than selling it. In the Rostov region, wheat prices have fallen to 5-6 rubles per kilogram, while the production cost of grain was 12-13 rubles per kilogram. Other cash crops are also affected by falling prices.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/9/26 at 6:56 am to Coeur du Tigre
Sorry Cope, your nation is more likely to no longer exist in the near future than it is to be part of NATO.
Get all the guarantees you can from Europe though, by all means.
Get all the guarantees you can from Europe though, by all means.
Posted on 9/9/26 at 7:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
Trump welcomes election victory of far-right "friends of Putin" in Germany
Viktoriia Shabranska, Ivanna Kostina — 9 September, 12:16
US President Donald Trump has welcomed the victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the election in Saxony-Anhalt. The party has been described as "Putin's friends" because of its consistently pro-Russian stance.
Source: European Pravda, citing a post by Trump on Truth Social
Quote from Trump: "The Populist Party in Germany just had a really big night. They finally got tired of the absolutely horrible Immigration rules and regulations which have hurt Germany so badly. THEY ARE ON THE RISE, and not going to take it anymore!"
Details: The US president was commenting on the results of the election in the German federal state of Saxony-Anhalt held on 6 September.
Trump also added "MGGA!!!" to his post, coining a German counterpart to his "MAGA" (Make America Great Again) slogan.
Background:
US billionaire Elon Musk had also previously congratulated the AfD on its victory.
The party secured a historic victory in the Saxony-Anhalt election this week by a significant margin, although it fell short of an absolute majority.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel expects the party's support to continue growing nationwide following its victory in the state and to reach 40%.
Ukrainska Pravda
Viktoriia Shabranska, Ivanna Kostina — 9 September, 12:16
US President Donald Trump has welcomed the victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the election in Saxony-Anhalt. The party has been described as "Putin's friends" because of its consistently pro-Russian stance.
Source: European Pravda, citing a post by Trump on Truth Social
Quote from Trump: "The Populist Party in Germany just had a really big night. They finally got tired of the absolutely horrible Immigration rules and regulations which have hurt Germany so badly. THEY ARE ON THE RISE, and not going to take it anymore!"
Details: The US president was commenting on the results of the election in the German federal state of Saxony-Anhalt held on 6 September.
Trump also added "MGGA!!!" to his post, coining a German counterpart to his "MAGA" (Make America Great Again) slogan.
Background:
US billionaire Elon Musk had also previously congratulated the AfD on its victory.
The party secured a historic victory in the Saxony-Anhalt election this week by a significant margin, although it fell short of an absolute majority.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel expects the party's support to continue growing nationwide following its victory in the state and to reach 40%.
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 9/9/26 at 7:55 am to cypher
quote:
Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the election in Saxony-Anhalt. The party has been described as "Putin's friends" because of its consistently pro-Russian stance.
More "anything that isn't good for Ukraine is pro-Putin" rhetoric from the European establishment.
At least from what I've seen, every single bullet point the AfD gets criticized for being "pro-Putin" on is something that is actually meant to help Germany. It's just as silly as the talking point that Trump was easing sanctions on Russian oil to help Russia... The intent clearly with that was to try and keep oil prices as low as possible at the time, even if the result did help Russia in some capacity.
Labeling things as "Pro-Putin" because a consequence of a decision might help Russia even if that is not the intent will only hurt Ukriane in the long run because the people in those countries impacted by those policies will begin to see supporting Ukraine as hurting themselves.
We are far too loose with labels nowadays on all sides of the aisle and internationally as well.
Posted on 9/9/26 at 8:23 am to VolSquatch
quote:
At least from what I've seen, every single bullet point the AfD gets criticized for being "pro-Putin" on is something that is actually meant to help Germany.
Ok, let's look at the facts and everyone can decide on who's "pro-Putin" or not and whether or not they are interested in helping Germany:
quote:
- The AfD has consistently opposed sanctions against Russia and German military aid to Ukraine.
- AfD politicians have blamed the US and NATO for Russia’s invasion, with party leader Tino Chrupalla claiming that the US “provoked Russia.”
- In 2022, five AfD politicians planned a trip to Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk. The trip was cancelled after public outrage.
- AfD politician Steffen Kotré appeared on Vladimir Solovyov’s Kremlin propaganda show, arguing against German military aid to Ukraine.
- AfD politicians participated alongside Sahra Wagenknecht’s movement in “anti-war” protests calling for an end to sanctions, an end to military aid to Ukraine and restored relations with Russia. Leaked documents later revealed that building such an “anti-war coalition” in Germany was one of the Kremlin’s goals.
- Russian documents described AfD politician Markus Frohnmaier as an “absolutely controlled MP” and discussed providing him with “material and media support.”
- A joint investigation by The Insider and Der Spiegel revealed that AfD parliamentary aide Vladimir Sergienko worked with an FSB officer to try to stop or delay German weapons deliveries to Ukraine. Sergienko also funneled Russian money and instructions to AfD politicians for a lawsuit against the German government over weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
- AfD politicians have repeatedly travelled to Russia, including trips to Moscow and Kaliningrad.
- Hans-Thomas Tillschneider declared after Russia’s full-scale invasion that “Russia is defending itself!”
- Tillschneider has written columns for the Russian newspaper Vedomosti, attended conferences in Moscow, congratulated Putin on his sham 2024 election victory and celebrated Putin’s birthday at the Russian Embassy in Berlin.
- Tillschneider also helped shape the AfD’s 2026 Saxony-Anhalt programme, which calls for ending sanctions against Russia, restoring Nord Stream, expanding Russian-language teaching in German schools and reviving student exchanges with Russia.
- AfD politician Tim Schramm volunteered to fight for Ukraine against Russia. The AfD’s NRW leadership responded by launching proceedings to expel him from the party.
- AfD politician Jörg Dornau co-owns an agricultural company in Belarus that used prisoners, particularly political prisoners, as forced labor. The EU later sanctioned the company over its use of forced labor.
- Chechnya-born AfD member Noah Krieger, originally named Murad Dadaev, travelled to Chechnya, attended parliament with Ramzan Kadyrov, met regime figures and took part in Kalashnikov training. Months later, he appeared in Russian-occupied Ukraine alongside Chechen Akhmat fighters, carrying a weapon and declaring: “I am in Ukraine and stand for Russia.”
And finally, let's look at the leader of the AfD:
quote:
Alice Weidel becomes the first leader in the world who:
- is anti-immigration but has an immigrant wife;
- is anti-LGBTQ+ but is a lesbian herself;
- opposes LGBT adoption but has adopted two children;
- and is a hardcore German nationalist but lives in Switzerland.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 9/9/26 at 8:47 am to cypher
It's more about the disaster caused by Merkel, unrestricted migration.
Posted on 9/9/26 at 9:01 am to Coeur du Tigre
With every Tu-95 bomber destroyed, Ukraine is reducing the costs of US nuclear deterrence by billions of dollars. Did they even say "thank you"?
Posted on 9/9/26 at 10:50 am to Coeur du Tigre
Cope's thesis is essentially that Germans just voted for a a party whose single issue is helping Putin
Nevermind that wanting to cease aid to Ukraine means more money for actual Germans. Nevermind that clearly they want the war to end and relations to normalize with Russia so they can go back to using their cheap energy (though I would have issues with that logic personally).
An attitude that you see over and over again from Ukranians on X is that they think Ukraine, or at least the Ukraine war, is the sun that global geopolitics should orbit. That hasn't been the case in practice for years now, if it ever was.
Nevermind that wanting to cease aid to Ukraine means more money for actual Germans. Nevermind that clearly they want the war to end and relations to normalize with Russia so they can go back to using their cheap energy (though I would have issues with that logic personally).
An attitude that you see over and over again from Ukranians on X is that they think Ukraine, or at least the Ukraine war, is the sun that global geopolitics should orbit. That hasn't been the case in practice for years now, if it ever was.

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