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Message
John Fleming may enter Governor's race
Posted on 1/22/19 at 11:37 am
Posted on 1/22/19 at 11:37 am
LINK
My first impression is that this will be good for Rispone as another North Louisiana candidate may hurt Abraham.
If a republican can get in a runoff with only 25% or 30% of the vote and keep most of his powder dry to pound JBE with in a runoff it would be good. It would be the best scenario other than only one republican in the race.
My first impression is that this will be good for Rispone as another North Louisiana candidate may hurt Abraham.
If a republican can get in a runoff with only 25% or 30% of the vote and keep most of his powder dry to pound JBE with in a runoff it would be good. It would be the best scenario other than only one republican in the race.
7
Posted on 1/22/19 at 11:40 am to I B Freeman
He isn’t going to.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 11:41 am to I B Freeman
Met him back in 2010 or 2011 for about a hour or two discussing healthcare changes and such that would impact the state (I was working in that industry at the time). He seemed like a straight shooter (as straight as any politician I suppose)
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:22 pm to dakarx
Oh I think any of the three republicans are much better than JBE.
Rispone has the money for the race. The other two need huge fund raising efforts to be competitive with JBE.
Rispone has the money for the race. The other two need huge fund raising efforts to be competitive with JBE.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:23 pm to I B Freeman
Film tax?
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:30 pm to dakarx
quote:
Met him back in 2010 or 2011 for about a hour or two discussing healthcare changes and such that would impact the state (I was working in that industry at the time). He seemed like a straight shooter (as straight as any politician I suppose)
He should've been our Senator over Kennedy.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:37 pm to I B Freeman
has anyone checked in with John Breaux?
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:42 pm to fatboydave
How old is he now?
I wonder how many millions of dollars have passed through the lobbying firm he started with Trent Lott?
I wonder how many millions of dollars have passed through the lobbying firm he started with Trent Lott?
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:43 pm to I B Freeman
It’s January, almost Feb and no one outside of BR has heard of Rispone. When is this guy planning to spend money? July ?
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:59 pm to NIH
No one is beating JBE. He has been scandals free and fairly non controversial. His departments have fired few, if any state workers so he isn’t getting any bad press about internal matters in the agencies.
The real race will be 2023. You have two young representatives in Johnson and Graves who both show promise. Landry will be a two time statewide elected official at that point and Kennedy a two time elected senator. The Dems will try to repeat the magic of JBE, but as of yet an heir apparent that is capable of uniting the black and white factions of the party has not emerged. The 2020-2023 sessions will be fun to watch in light of all of these things as folks begin to posture and position themselves for a 2023 run.
The real race will be 2023. You have two young representatives in Johnson and Graves who both show promise. Landry will be a two time statewide elected official at that point and Kennedy a two time elected senator. The Dems will try to repeat the magic of JBE, but as of yet an heir apparent that is capable of uniting the black and white factions of the party has not emerged. The 2020-2023 sessions will be fun to watch in light of all of these things as folks begin to posture and position themselves for a 2023 run.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 1:08 pm to michael corleone
Yeah, it’s almost as if the state GOP is conceding 2020. Rispone is an unknown and needed to start getting his name out there last fall let alone right now. Makes me wonder if he’s surrounded himself with incompetents.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 1:33 pm to NIH
The public will know Rispone before the election.
JBE is going down with or without any damage arising from the three or four FBI ongoing investigations in Tangipahoa Parish.
JBE is going down with or without any damage arising from the three or four FBI ongoing investigations in Tangipahoa Parish.
This post was edited on 1/22/19 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 1/22/19 at 1:38 pm to NIH
Mike Foster got in the runoff spending like $300k.
Dumping a couple of million on media in June and July will make him very well known. Spending the money now simply makes him the main focus of attacks by the dems is how I see it.
Dumping a couple of million on media in June and July will make him very well known. Spending the money now simply makes him the main focus of attacks by the dems is how I see it.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 1:52 pm to I B Freeman
Foster ran two decades ago
Posted on 1/22/19 at 1:57 pm to michael corleone
quote:
No one is beating JBE. He has been scandals free and fairly non controversial.
Problem here is that you should be asking this question.
What the hell is JBE going to run on?
Unemployment is absurdly high, people are leaving this state in droves, there's a glut of government everywhere, spending is through the roof with nothing to show for it, the middle class and the poor is being taxed out of the arse with nothing to show for it as well, businesses refuse to invest here and the state economy actually has contracted in the last 3 years with JBE.
You're kidding yourself if you think that's not going to hurt JBE as he still has an approval rating that's below 50 and that's not a good thing to have in a red state.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 2:02 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
My first impression is that this will be good for Rispone as another North Louisiana candidate may hurt Abraham.
IB, I understand the logic of this but I am most definitely not favor of a crabs in a bucket scenario.
If fleming gets in, it will encourage other republicans to get in as well.
Too many republicans running is the most surefire way for JBE to get reelected and your preferred candidate in Rispone to not even make the runoff or at least be too bruised to win it.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 2:51 pm to Sentrius
This is how JBE wins
Easily makes runoff with spending much money. He is the only Dem in the race and will easily capture 40 plus percent of the vote. Who ever he faces in the runoff (assuming the republicans can get their vote out in the primary to prevent a first ballot win ) he will face someone from either north La or BR who is only recognized in that geographical areas. If you guys learned anything from the 2016 election , or as recent as the BR Constabke race, it’s that polls don’t win elections. Voter turn out wins elections. Whose base is motivated to go out and vote for their candidate. The lack of issues and problems at this point tells me that much like the fall 2018 elections republicans will have low voter turnout due to a lack of motivation. The dem machine will get their vote out , which will lock down either a first ballot or second round win for JBE. Things may change if something pops up, but if the status quo remains he easily wins.
Easily makes runoff with spending much money. He is the only Dem in the race and will easily capture 40 plus percent of the vote. Who ever he faces in the runoff (assuming the republicans can get their vote out in the primary to prevent a first ballot win ) he will face someone from either north La or BR who is only recognized in that geographical areas. If you guys learned anything from the 2016 election , or as recent as the BR Constabke race, it’s that polls don’t win elections. Voter turn out wins elections. Whose base is motivated to go out and vote for their candidate. The lack of issues and problems at this point tells me that much like the fall 2018 elections republicans will have low voter turnout due to a lack of motivation. The dem machine will get their vote out , which will lock down either a first ballot or second round win for JBE. Things may change if something pops up, but if the status quo remains he easily wins.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 2:59 pm to michael corleone
The outstanding question that each Republican will have to answer is whether or not they will rescind JBE’s Medicaid expansion.
This post was edited on 1/22/19 at 3:00 pm
Posted on 1/22/19 at 3:07 pm to michael corleone
we shall see.
The trial lawyers and medicare providers will be throwing millions at him.
The biggest problem I have with JBE--his underlying goal is and always has been to create a case action lawsuit on behalf of a group of parishes or the state against the deepest pockets he can conjure up and then farm it out to his lawyer buddies on contingency. (I wonder if he would include the various entities that arose from the Win or Corporation that still enrich the Long heirs in any oil lawsuits??)
He is about the $$$$$ for himself and that is all. There are some very shady characters around him and his machine in Tangipahoa and shady characters were around his father too. He knows how to stoke his base with government payments, little raises here and there for teachers or state workers, sucking up to the film makers ect. He has a chance of winning but I still believe the republicans have the upper hand.
The trial lawyers and medicare providers will be throwing millions at him.
The biggest problem I have with JBE--his underlying goal is and always has been to create a case action lawsuit on behalf of a group of parishes or the state against the deepest pockets he can conjure up and then farm it out to his lawyer buddies on contingency. (I wonder if he would include the various entities that arose from the Win or Corporation that still enrich the Long heirs in any oil lawsuits??)
He is about the $$$$$ for himself and that is all. There are some very shady characters around him and his machine in Tangipahoa and shady characters were around his father too. He knows how to stoke his base with government payments, little raises here and there for teachers or state workers, sucking up to the film makers ect. He has a chance of winning but I still believe the republicans have the upper hand.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 3:21 pm to michael corleone
quote:
This is how JBE wins
This is how JBE loses.
None of the republican candidates have any huge and glaring weaknesses that would make them like Vitter repeats and are not mindlessly and violently attacking each other like Dardenne, Angelle and Vitter did to each other.
The spotlight stays on JBE and he tries to run on something positive which he does not have right now and thus is forced to start attacking republican candidates which are pretty good this time around. Thus he's not quite able to sneak into the runoff quietly this time around and face a fatally wounded republican that can't unite the base.
There in the runoff, JBE is forced to explain the current condition of the state of Louisiana and why it has not changed any better since he was elected and he will not be able to come up with a decent explanation that isn't focused on mindlessly attacking republicans including some who voted for him last time around.
quote:
He is the only Dem in the race and will easily capture 40 plus percent of the vote.
Don't be so sure about that.
There has been a recent trend in Louisiana that black voters are less and less likely to vote for a white Democrat and just look at the recent statewide races for evidence with the races for senate, treasurer and SoS featuring a black democrat being the candidate against the republican.
JBE can't even control the black caucus in the legislature and he can barely get them to the table now these days.
This post was edited on 1/22/19 at 3:22 pm
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