Jefferson Parish was the first parish in Louisiana to move to the GOP. Now, it’s receding

Interesting data from Wikipedia:

quote:

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Jefferson Parish was one of the first areas of Louisiana to turn Republican. It has not voted for a Democrat for president since John F. Kennedy in 1960. In the 2008 Presidential election, Jefferson Parish cast a majority of votes for Republican John McCain, who won 63% of the vote and 113,191 votes. Democrat Barack Obama won 36% of the votes and 65,096 votes. Although John McCain easily won Jefferson Parish, in the U.S Senate race that same year between Democrat Mary Landrieu and Republican John Neely Kennedy, Landrieu won Jefferson Parish. She won 52% of the vote and 91,966 votes. John Kennedy won 46% of the vote and 79,965 votes. Other candidates won 2% of the vote. In 2004, Republican George W. Bush won 62% of the vote and 117,882 votes. Democrat John F. Kerry won 38% of the votes and 72,136 votes.[46]

Since 2008, in contrast to much of the rest of Louisiana shifting somewhat towards the Republicans, Jefferson Parish appears to be trending slightly Democratic at the presidential level. In 2012, Mitt Romney won it with only 58.2% of the vote, and in 2016, despite still losing the parish to Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton became the second Democrat since her husband in 1996, and only the third since Jimmy Carter in 1976, to crack 40% of the vote there. In 2020, Joe Biden cut the Republican margin to just 11 points, the lowest Republican margin since it voted for Bob Dole by just 6.7 points in 1996.

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To put this another way:

Since 1960, Jefferson Parish always voted significantly more *republican* than the state as a whole. For example, in 1992, it was 26 points more repub than the state as a whole. (Clinton won state by 5 but lost Jefferson by 21)


Since trump, the parish now votes to the *left* of the state. DJT beat Kamala by 22 in the state, but only 13 in Jefferson Parish.

What this suggests is that the parish is no longer the GOP stronghold it used to be.

It remains to be seen if this is due to out of state migration, Nola dems fleeing the city to settle in the Parish, or the folks of the parish just not being enthused by DJT.


But, the data is clear that it isn’t quite the GOP hotbed it used to be