re: James Talarico makes surprise appearance at ACL Fest after campaign absence

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Had he and or his campaign done some like that, then the marginalization of this looney bin theory would get more traction from those that matter, ie - the minuscule portion of folks that are actually still persuadable…

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fair enough and if it is very close within 2 points, it might make a difference.

But the dialogue on here is not what T'rico should have done or his campaign should have presented;

This is all just a bunch of people trying to demand that a nut job was in a nut house

so what if he was?

Insane politicians are not restricted to one party or the other

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but t'rico will win, but NOT because he's better but because paxton is so weak

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I guess I don’t understand your argument. You say Paxton will lose because he’s a weak candidate, but simultaneously say Talarico being committed is irrelevant

If Texas elects Talerico, regardless of Paxton, I hope the state turns into El Salvador. Driving through Houston is already like driving through Central America. I am tired of the excuses from moderates and purist conservatives. It’s time for the people to start suffering the consequences of their votes and that won’t happen with the controlled decline being perpetuated by RINO Republicans. I hope the Democrats take the governor’s race in Texas and Georgia. The voters deserve it for their stupidity

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ith the controlled decline being perpetuated by RINO Republicans

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And see what you don't understand, and this board won't accept: Texas Republicans are not in the control of the RINOs
There are very few moderate Republicans in Texas anymore,

Texas is in the control of the extreme conservative right, driven in large part by the West Texas oilman Tim Dunn
dan patrick, paxton, the State Party is absolutely under control of what this board considers "the conservatives"

but they are fake conservatives. They play the role to get elected and get access to the power. They say what they need to say to win the office, and then once in office, the corruption begins,
the Austin swamp if you will

Less than 8% of the vote ,voted in the primary; it was the extremist being manipulated by West Texas oil money,, and not for the oil for private education vouchers mostly

And you don't have to take my word for it if you're really that concerned, you can find this stuff out for yourself

they campaign like they are conservatives, but they control the state like oligarchs


Our boy Elon was an early perp of this; he tried to get the direct sale of Teslas, but the Texas Auto dealer lobby is vv powerful. The owner-operators of these businesses are often the richest people in the counties where rural state legislatures come from, so it never happened
but he has a strong friendship with patrick
So much of his other businesses is moving here

It’s only irrelevant if you accept that independents have already made up their minds and I don’t accept that.

I would agree with you that it’s a fine line to walk if the Paxton campaign were to attack him for being mentally ill and could result in some independents having sympathy for Talarico, but that’s not what you’re arguing.

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It’s only irrelevant if you accept that independents have already made up their minds, and I don’t accept that.

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Well, of the independents, who make up 16% of the vote in Texas

The number of undecided voters in that 16%-
60-ish% are supporting T'rico, 9 point something% of the statewide vote

And my numbers aren't based upon polling alone; it's sociology more than anything, the Democrats had a much more active primary in Texas than the Republicans did, which is very unusual; that's against the trend.Thats why this is a blip more than a shift

ad that 9 % to the 46 % of Texas voters who voted in the D primary of those who voted in the primary not all voters do, its a small 7% but you can extrapolate based upon past elections Political math is based upon actual numbers and historical trends and unusual blips,thats the sociological part

thats 55%

Since in Texas you don't have to register in either party to vote in the primary, that number fluctuates election to election, so I'm citing the most recent numbers, and yes in that number it indicates that some that had been Republican primary voters voted in the Democrat primary this time most of those were suburban white women
which isnt surprising

what that means is the democrats or Trico doesn't have to convince voters to vote for him; he just has to try to get those that are inclined to vote for him out to the polls


Whereas paxton and the Republicans, because again paxton has so many negatives
are still trying to get republicans to support paxton they're still going to vote for other Republicans. They're just not going to vote for paxton

this is not me trying to argue You raised a fair point i'm trying to respond in kind


And forgive me if I'm confusing it's difficult thing to describe without being able to write it out on a whiteboard

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We’ll see when polls come out this week. I still maintain Paxton wins by 4-6% like Cruz did over Beto

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I thought we didn't believe in polls



But you're right;

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we will see

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it's just we'll see November 5th[

quote]That’s predictive math. Not a guarantee[/quote]

Absolutely, but grounded in historical data


The calculations ,, this kind of of math is used mostly when campaigns are deciding where to spend the money

And when people are spending millions and millions of dollars, this is grounded in serious study


I do appreciate the exchange and am happy to discuss it when the next polling comes out

I don't think of it as an impasse

smart people study the numbers before they invest in the market, which ultimately is a guess, my prediction is a guess that i feel comfortable making,, I call it a prediction, which is only a fancy word for a guess

But like you said, we will see

thank you

Paxton should accuse Talarico of being mentally ill... and he should do it at a DEBATE.

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I meant Paxton will win by a slim margin like Cruz did over Beto. 4-6% is what I’m predicting.

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4-6% isnt slim

that would be a shocker,, If you really think that, place the small bet on that you'll cash in big

52-48
or
53 47

would be a huge suprise

Trump harris was 50% to 48 % ith 2% others