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re: Italy may seek "nuclear option" in dealing with migrants
Posted on 7/18/17 at 1:57 pm to Scruffy
Posted on 7/18/17 at 1:57 pm to Scruffy
I agree that that has been the case, but I think the awakening is beginning. You see pockets of it reported here and there, but nothing major. The worsening of the migrants and disintegration of the EU will help this along I believe. I'd expect some great acceleration around the time the EU looks to finally be falling apart. Alliances will be reformed and this 3rd Great War will be much more convoluted than the last two.
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Posted on 7/18/17 at 1:57 pm to SlowFlowPro
I've said this before, but the migrant crisis is an extension of the failure of the post-war refugee system put in place. It has been teetering on the edge of failure since 1991, when there were numerous civil wars on the outskirts of Europe (in the Balkans and North Africa, not to mention the the Rwandan war and a civil war in Afghanistan) which the refugee system did not deal with appropriately. For example, many refugees from conflicts in 1990s still do not have official paperwork, and have no incentive to return to their countries and have every incentive to move toward countries where at least they can get documents. The Iranian situation with Afghanis is a prime example, with 1 million refugees having official paperwork, but 2 million still without paperwork.
The wars of the early 2000s exacerbated the situation in the 90s, which finally reached a head in the Syrian migrant crisis. Regardless, until there is a refugee system in place that works we will be papering over the cracks.
The wars of the early 2000s exacerbated the situation in the 90s, which finally reached a head in the Syrian migrant crisis. Regardless, until there is a refugee system in place that works we will be papering over the cracks.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:00 pm to Scruffy
quote:
There is no pride left in Germany and a return of nationalism is as likely as the NK citizens rising up.
2-3 generations need to pass before that could potentially happen. By that time, there will be no more Germany.
Europe is now the sick man of Europe as the Ottoman Empire returns with a vengeance.
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If Italy does pursue this course of action, support for the Schengen scheme, which allows all EU citizens to travel freely across the Continent, may be in jeopardy
Time to speed up Brexit
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:01 pm to DabosDynasty
If Islamic countries were united to such a degree, then that war would have already happened. National and ethnic differences are supremely important in the Islamic world, and in effect it was burgeoning Turkish nationalism in the late Ottoman period which destabilized the region as a whole. Islamists themselves pose a supra-national threat, but the organized governments in Islamic countries want stability.
If for example ethnic Algerians were being persecuted in France on the scale of persecutions in WWII, Turkey for example would be unlikely to respond with war. The degree to which people think the Islamic world is united is greater than the degree to which they are actually united.
If for example ethnic Algerians were being persecuted in France on the scale of persecutions in WWII, Turkey for example would be unlikely to respond with war. The degree to which people think the Islamic world is united is greater than the degree to which they are actually united.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:03 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The degree to which people think the Islamic world is united is greater than the degree to which they are actually united.
Yea some people don't get it.
There is no united Muslim front. The amount of infighting b/w them is insane.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:04 pm to crazy4lsu
I've seen some of your previous posts on the migrants and Muslims and you seem very knowledgeable. I haven't and I don't think most people make this trace, but you certainly seem to be onto something with that. That's adds an interesting background to today's crisis.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:07 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The degree to which people think the Islamic world is united is greater than the degree to which they are actually united.
Sure, but they can still have the same idea of taking over Europe without being united, right?
We can applaud and approve of the Russians killing Chechen extremists without being buddies with the Russians, right?
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:07 pm to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
Yea some people don't get it. There is no united Muslim front. The amount of infighting b/w them is insane.
Do you mean "inpeaceing"?
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:09 pm to crazy4lsu
I don't think they're united, but I think there's enough of the major powers over there who could collaborate enough to be a problem. This Turkey, Iran, Russia, Syria tango going on currently is where I would expect the challenge to rise. Russia, of course, is no friend to the Muslim in general, but I think they're all for a destabilized Europe and would be onboard initially behind the scenes with Turkish and/or Iranian action in response to potential cleansing of Muslims from Germany and Western Europe.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:10 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
also of note, these are primarily migrants from Africa, so it's not even the "Syrian" migrants that made all the headlines last year
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:17 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
Sure, but they can still have the same idea of taking over Europe without being united, right?
Taking over Europe is, on a logistical level, beyond the scope of what current Islamic politics can deal with. And the destabilization of Europe would be disastrous for the Islamic world, as it is through lots of diplomatic pressure from the West that disputes are resolved rather than war. It would almost certainly lead to quite a lot of outright conflict.
The only people who seemingly want to claim Europe are Islamists.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:21 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
Sure, but they can still have the same idea of taking over Europe without being united, right?
crazy response was perfect
quote:
We can applaud and approve of the Russians killing Chechen extremists without being buddies with the Russians, right?
and still didn't solve their Muslim problem.
Moscow has more Muslims than just about every major European city. One day that bomb is going to go off.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:23 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
I think there's enough of the major powers over there who could collaborate enough to be a problem. This Turkey, Iran, Russia, Syria tango going on currently is where I would expect the challenge to rise.
Well that conflict is really a conflict for regional hegemony created in the vacuum of the post-Saddam world. It looks like the Iranians are the real winners there, with the Turks destabilized to the degree that Erdogan could consolidate power, and the Saudis pushed aside to the degree that they cannot even impose their will on a country the size of Qatar. It is in our best interest to develop a balance of power in the region which disincentivizes the hegemony of one country over the others.
While the persecution of Muslims would certainly drive them, as the persecution of Palestinians drove early Islamists, the real differences between them prevent any real action other than putting pressure through diplomatic channels. A country such as Iran, which has had terrible problems with sanctions, would not risk its own citizenry in a conflict outside its borders, just as in Syria they've used proxy groups to do the majority of the fighting.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:23 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The only people who seemingly want to claim Europe are Islamists.
Sure, but it can't be out of the realm of possibility for Islamists to use these "refugees" or "migrants" as pawns in a bigger game. Europe's collective guilt and overzealous inclusion makes them a ripe target for the next several decades.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:25 pm to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
and still didn't solve their Muslim problem.
I saw a list of every Islamist attack in Europe, and nearly half were in Russia. The looming demographic issues have forced Putin's hand, and his relationship with Kadyrov shows that.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:25 pm to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
crazy response was perfect
How is that crazy?
quote:
and still didn't solve their Muslim problem.
Moscow has more Muslims than just about every major European city. One day that bomb is going to go off.
I think you missed the analogy.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:29 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
Sure, but it can't be out of the realm of possibility for Islamists to use these "refugees" or "migrants" as pawns in a bigger game. Europe's collective guilt and overzealous inclusion makes them a ripe target for the next several decades.
Of course the Islamists will use that, but actual Islamists are not numerous in number, and use asymmetrical warfare and propaganda to upset notions of collective security.
Europe's problems with Muslims are localized to each country. The problems with Muslims in France is of a different character than the problems with Muslims in Britain, and so on. Islamists will push the narrative of supra-national acceptance, which is specifically targeted to alienated 2nd and 3rd generation Muslims who feel left out of the culture at large, but Islamists themselves do not live by these supra-national standards, i.e. the Saudis getting the best treatment in ISIS-held Raqaa.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:33 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Of course the Islamists will use that, but actual Islamists are not numerous in number, and use asymmetrical warfare and propaganda to upset notions of collective security.
Isn't that the same as saying "force multipliers"?
quote:
Europe's problems with Muslims are localized to each country. The problems with Muslims in France is of a different character than the problems with Muslims in Britain, and so on.
Like what? I thought it was mainly due to be ostracized for lack of assimilation.
quote:
i.e. the Saudis getting the best treatment in ISIS-held Raqaa.
That kinda makes sense considering the Sunni tie that binds.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:37 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Well that conflict is really a conflict for regional hegemony created in the vacuum of the post-Saddam world.
I agree. I'm not sure if Iran is the biggest winner or if Russia is the biggest winner, but I certainly agree Iran is a major winner from this.
quote:
The Turks destabilized to the degree that Erdogan could consolidate power
Wont his consolidation of power increase the likelyhood of his action beyond their boarders eventually, not next year, but down the road if my belief that the Germans and other area of Europe turn on the migrants?
quote:
Saudis
I agree, which I then extrapolate to Iran and Turkey not being as concerned with them militarily in this scenario. Could they realistically continue to operate in the Middle East through proxies and focus traditional military might elsewhere to a good degree?
I think Saudi ineptitude will eventually allow them the sense of security to look beyond their borders to Europe. Then I think somewhere in this the Saudi ring of influence will attempt action against the Iranians or visa versa.
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